The 2028 Race Is Already Over for Kamala Harris | Tom Del Beccaro

The Hidden Voting Bloc That Decides SF Elections | Jay Donde

Guest: Jay Donde, Co-Founder of the Briones Society Guest Bio:  Jay Donde is an attorney for a leading enterprise software company headquartered in San Francisco, and was previously an associate at the law firm of Morrison & Foerster, LLP. He is a graduate of the University of California at Berkeley and Harvard Law School, and is a veteran of the Israel Defense Forces. He serves as the political affairs Vice Chair of the San Francisco Republican Party and as a delegate to the California Republican Party, and is Co-Founder and President of the Briones Society. His columns have been published in Bloomberg, City Journal, Wired, SFGate, and the Marina Times. Show Summary San Francisco is often portrayed as an electric-blue monolith—but underneath the surface lies a growing block of "closeted" conservative thinkers and independent voters who are deciding high-stakes local elections. In this episode of State of Gold, host Jon Slavet sits down with attorney and Briones Society Co-Founder Jay Donde to explore the changing ideological ground of California’s most famous progressive laboratory. Donde dives straight into the "dirty little secrets" of San Francisco politics, mapping out how a modest block of 40,000 registered Republicans and tens of thousands of No Party Preference (NPP) independents have positioned themselves as a crucial swing constituency. Slavet and Donde evaluate Mayor Daniel Lurie's historic approval numbers and look ahead to the major fiscal battles he will face when standing up to the public sector unions. The heat turns up as the team tackles the Billionaire Tax, breaking down why wealth taxes run completely counter to optimal tax theory by encouraging wealth migration. With startup founders and venture capitalists viewing the ballot measure as an "existential threat" that treats the state as a purely extractive mechanism, Donde details the looming threat of an innovation exodus. From calculating the technical math of a statewide Republican turnaround to a sensible framework for regulating artificial intelligence without fracturing the market into a patchwork quilt of fifty competing laws, this episode is an essential guide to restoring balance and sanity to California. Chapters 00:00 – Preview: Deciding Swing Seats and Tech’s Breaking Point 00:20 – Co-Working Politics: Welcoming Jay Donde at Neon 00:48 – The Closet Conservatives: Unpacking San Francisco's NPP Voters 01:44 – Stigma or Survival? City Government as a GOP Recruiting Tool 02:44 – Mayor Daniel Lurie’s Approval Ratings 04:05 – Blighted Boundaries: Public Safety, Property Crime, and the Tenderloin 05:30 – Growing the Bloc: Pushing the City to the Center by 100 Votes 07:07 – Notching Wins: Rebuilding the Ground Infrastructure of the CA GOP 08:50 – The 400,000 Stat: Activating LA County's Unregistered Consensus 09:24 – Inverting Optimal Tax Theory: The Reality of Wealth Migration 10:04 – An Existential Event: How Founders View the Extractive State 11:53 – AI Policy: Why California Needs to Avoid the Legislative Gold Rush 14:09 – Patchwork Quilts vs. Federal Moratoriums on State AI Law 14:45 – Rapid Fire: Denuding Public Sector Unions and Politics as a Throttle Connect with Jay Donde * LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jay-donde/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jay-donde/] * Website: https://www.brionessociety.org/ [https://www.brionessociety.org/] Enjoyed the episode? Subscribe to our podcast, leave a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify and join the conversation on Instagram and LinkedIn with the hashtag #stateofgoldpodcast Connect with State of Gold * X: https://x.com/realjonslavet [https://x.com/realjonslavet] * Linked In: https://www.linkedin.com/company/stateofgold/about [https://www.linkedin.com/company/stateofgold/about] * Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/stateofgoldpodcast/?hl=en [https://www.instagram.com/stateofgoldpodcast/?hl=en] * Website: www.stateofgold.com [https://stateofgold.com/]

The 2028 Race Is Already Over for Kamala Harris | Tom Del Beccaro

Guest Tom Del Beccaro, Former California GOP Chair Guest Bio Tom Del Beccaro is an acclaimed author, speaker, and the former Chair of the California Republican Party. A veteran political strategist and attorney, he has spent decades navigating the unique landscape of West Coast politics. Del Beccaro is the author of The Divided States of America and a frequent national commentator on fiscal policy, regulatory reform, and constitutional law. Known for his tactical acumen, he was the last Republican chair to successfully qualify a citizens’ initiative on the California state ballot. He currently publishes extensively on economic policy, focusing on structural solutions to California’s affordability crisis and middle-class tax burdens.  Show Summary Del Beccaro pulls no punches regarding his 2016 Senate opponent, Kamala Harris, detailing what he calls a long-standing history of being unprepared and relying on political "kingmakers" like Willie Brown rather than executive acumen and hard work. Turning his sights to Gavin Newsom, Del Beccaro exposes a stunning vacuum of real-world management experience, noting that the Governor routinely fails to convene crucial legislative and private sector meetings to address massive structural catastrophes like the supply chain crisis, the Palisades, or the statewide insurance collapse. The conversation pivots to a strategic masterclass on political turnarounds. Del Beccaro explains why trying to out-conservative opponents fails in California, arguing instead that Republicans must bypass the legislature entirely by placing discrete, solution-oriented initiatives directly into voters' hands. From a blunt financial reality check on BART’s $14 billion taxpayer bailout to a chilling forecast on how the proposed wealth tax will permanently drive away the state's core tax base, this episode offers a roadmap for restoring a competitive political marketplace in the Golden State. Chapters 00:00 – Confronting Kamala: Lessons from the 2016 Senate Trail 01:50 – Kingmakers and Traffic Commissions: Kamala and Gavin 03:25 – The Management Vacuum: Why Gavin Newsom Doesn't Do Legislative Meetings 04:08 – Unaddressed Crises: From Supply Chains to the Insurance Collapse 05:42 – The Gate to 2028: Polling Weaknesses and the $1.3 Billion Donor Backlash 07:42 – Soft Ground: Adam Schiff and the Divisive New Era of the US Senate 10:31 – The Chairman’s Playbook: Winning California Through Discrete Initiatives 11:08 – Fixing the Pothole: How to Build a Comeback Without Home Runs 14:30 – Limiting the Spreadsheet: The Private Sector View on Bill Appropriations 15:33 – Funding Failure: Why BART and High-Speed Rail Won’t Recover Ridership 17:53 – A Tax Too Far: The Law of Demand and the 145,000 High Earner Exodus 20:53 – Rapid Fire: The Soviet Bread Shop, Human Ingenuity, and a State in Trouble Connect with Tom Del Beccaro * LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-del-beccaro-6359885/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-del-beccaro-6359885/] * Twitter/X: https://x.com/tomdelbeccaro [https://x.com/tomdelbeccaro] * Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thomasgdelbeccaro [https://www.facebook.com/thomasgdelbeccaro] Enjoyed the episode? Subscribe to our podcast, leave a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify and join the conversation on Instagram and LinkedIn with the hashtag #stateofgoldpodcast Connect with State of Gold * X: https://x.com/realjonslavet [https://x.com/realjonslavet] * Linked In: https://www.linkedin.com/company/stateofgold/about [https://www.linkedin.com/company/stateofgold/about] * Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/stateofgoldpodcast/?hl=en [https://www.instagram.com/stateofgoldpodcast/?hl=en] * Website: www.stateofgold.com [https://stateofgold.com/]

CA Cities & Counties are Robbing Homeowners Blind | Jon Coupal

Guest: Jon Coupal, President of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association Guest Bio:  Jon Coupal is one of California's most prominent taxpayer advocates and an expert on public finance and election law. He serves as the President of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, a grassroots citizens organization dedicated to protecting the landmark property tax limitations established under 1978's Proposition 13. A seasoned constitutional attorney, Coupal has spent decades defending taxpayer rights in both state and federal courts, and challenging tax hikes and regulatory loopholes engineered by municipal governments. He has been a pivotal structural force behind multiple successful statewide ballot measures, continuing a legacy of fiscal discipline, accountability, and constitutional guardrails against over-taxation. Show Summary "Nobody has ever been hired by a poor person," says Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association President Jon Coupal. In this episode of State of Gold, host Jon Slavet sits down with Coupal to unpack the heavy economic toll of California's record-setting tax rates and the growing grassroots effort to put power back in the hands of voters.Coupal breaks down the structural importance of the newly qualified Local Taxpayer Protection Act slated for California’s November ballot. He reveals how the California State Supreme Court has steadily degraded Proposition 13 over the decades, using judicial loopholes to let local municipalities sidestep the state's traditional two-thirds voter threshold for special taxes. He shares how the act seeks to halt "equity theft" by capping aggressive real estate transfer taxes—such as Los Angeles's controversial Measure ULA—and ensure that special interest tax hikes are subject to the original intent of the law. The discussion shifts to a strategic war-room map, where Coupal explains the power of their 200,000-member grassroots network and their success at defeating tax-expansion measures despite being outspent 10-to-1. Turning his focus to the Governor's race, he evaluates Steve Hilton’s proposal to eliminate income taxes for those earning under $100,000, pointing out how pervasive state agency fraud provides more than enough "juice in the squeeze" to offset the loss. From tracking the "Trojan Horse" mechanics of the Billionaire Tax to detailing why a CA zero-income-tax roadmap can prevent a middle-class exodus, this episode is a blueprint for how a "sick" state can recover. Chapters 00:00 – Drawing the Line: Confronting America’s Highest Tax Bracket 00:23 – Introducing the Local Taxpayer Protection Act 00:32 – Closing the Loopholes: Restoring the Guardrails of Proposition 13 01:15 – Defining Equity Theft: Capping Real Estate Transfer Taxes 01:50 – Complicit Courts: How the State Supreme Court Bypassed Plain Language 03:43 – War Room Strategy: Mobilizing a Coalition of Realtors and Landlords 04:54 – Defeating Proposition 5: Winning a Grassroots Campaign Outspent 10-to-1 07:07 – Lowest ROI: Why California Ranks Dead Last in Return on Investment 09:06 – Saved Revenue vs. Lost Revenue: Endorsing Steve Hilton’s Tax Cuts 10:56 – Reinvigorating the Economy: The Historic Proof of Property Tax Relief 11:12 – The Fraud Explosion: Funding Cuts Through Waste and Bot Scams 12:51 – Exploding the Billionaire Myth: How fine Print Creates an Everyone Tax 15:28 – Constitutional Infirmities: The FTB Enforcement and Ex Post Facto Traps 18:05 – November Rejections: Why the Electorate Isn't as Progressive as its Leaders 19:15 – Rapid Fire: Removing Collective Bargaining and a Sick State’s Recovery Connect with Jon Coupal * Twitter/X: https://x.com/joncoupal [https://x.com/joncoupal] * LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jon-coupal-68772ba [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jon-coupal-68772ba] * Website: https://www.hjta.org/ [https://www.hjta.org/] Enjoyed the episode? Subscribe to our podcast, leave a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify and join the conversation on Instagram and LinkedIn with the hashtag #stateofgoldpodcast Connect with State of Gold * X: https://x.com/realjonslavet [https://x.com/realjonslavet] * Linked In: https://www.linkedin.com/company/stateofgold/about [https://www.linkedin.com/company/stateofgold/about] * Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/stateofgoldpodcast/?hl=en [https://www.instagram.com/stateofgoldpodcast/?hl=en] * Website: www.stateofgold.com [https://stateofgold.com/]

CA Governor Primary Roundtable with Steve Maviglio & Jennifer Horn

Guests: Jennifer Horn: Conservative political commentator and host on AM590 The Answer Steve Maviglio: Democratic strategist and former press secretary to CA Governor Gray Davis Show Summary Days after California's high-stakes June 2nd jungle primary, the dust is still settling—and millions of ballots have yet to be certified. In the inaugural State of Gold post-election roundtable, host Jon Slavet sits down with top-tier political commentators Jennifer Horn and Steve Maviglio for an unfiltered, bipartisan autopsy of a wild election cycle. The panel dives straight into the frontrunners for Governor, breaking down how Xavier Becerra staged a "Lazarus-style" comeback from the dead to secure a presumptive general election matchup against frontrunning Republican Steve Hilton. Maviglio exposes how the sudden structural collapse of Eric Swalwell's congressional career upended the field, driving anxious progressive voters toward a calm establishment alternative. Meanwhile, Horn outlines the roadmap Hilton must use to target Becerra's thin record of legislative achievements and federal HHS baggage. The debate gets heated as the team investigates California's notoriously sluggish mail-in vote counts and the growing crisis of voter confidence. From analyzing intra-party squabbles inside gerrymander-tweaked congressional districts to tracking reality TV icon Spencer Pratt's viral, AI-driven mayoral campaign against an embattled Karen Bass in Los Angeles, this episode is a definitive breakdown of what happens when performance art meets real-world math on the California ballot. Chapters 00:00 – Launching the Post-Primary Roundtable 00:40 – The 56% Tally: Sizing up the Hilton vs. Becerra Presumptive Matchup 01:50 – Rising From the Dead: How Xavier Becerra Catapulted Past Tom Steyer 03:35 – The 35% Turnout: Disenfranchisement, Voter Integrity, and the Apathy Trap 05:42 – The Crisis of Confidence: Assessing State Election Law and Voter ID Policies 07:40 – Postmark Deadlines: The Strategic Debate Over Mail-in Ballots 09:17 – The Cliff Note Strategy: How Hilton Can Define Becerra’s Baggage 11:27 – Running Against Trump: The Predictable Democratic Line of Attack 12:28 – Referendums on Scarcity: Why the Prop 50 Precedent Matters 13:41 – Pushing Chips in the Middle: Strategists Place Bets on the November Governor 15:05 – Running Through the Tape: Evaluating Chad Bianco’s Next Political Move 17:03 – California 22: David Valadao and the Top-Two Primary Manipulation 18:49 – District 6 Suburbs: Kevin Kiley's Thorn in Governor Newsom's Side 20:06 – The LA Mayoral Shocker: Spencer Pratt's High-Tech Rise Against Karen Bass 21:11 – Reframing the News: Understanding Pratt's Reality TV Media Gift 24:08 – Changing the Script: How Satire and AI are Reshaping Modern Campaigns Connect with Jennifer Horn * Twitter/X: https://x.com/JenniferHorn?lang=en [https://x.com/JenniferHorn?lang=en] * Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/JenniferHornRadio/ [https://www.facebook.com/JenniferHornRadio/] * Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jenniferhornradio/?hl=en [https://www.instagram.com/jenniferhornradio/?hl=en] Connect with Steve Maviglio * Twitter/X: https://x.com/stevenmaviglio [https://x.com/stevenmaviglio] * LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/steve-m-54a17b/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/steve-m-54a17b/] Enjoyed the episode? Subscribe to our podcast, leave a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify and join the conversation on Instagram and LinkedIn with the hashtag #stateofgoldpodcast Connect with State of Gold * X: https://x.com/realjonslavet [https://x.com/realjonslavet] * Linked In: https://www.linkedin.com/company/stateofgold/about [https://www.linkedin.com/company/stateofgold/about] * Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/stateofgoldpodcast/?hl=en [https://www.instagram.com/stateofgoldpodcast/?hl=en] * Website: www.stateofgold.com [https://stateofgold.com/]

Meet the Man Who Drew the California Prop50 Maps | Paul Mitchell

Guest: Paul Mitchell, Democratic Political Strategist Guest Bio:  Paul Mitchell is one of the nation's premier experts on nonpartisan redistricting, political demography, and voter data analytics. He has directed decennial line-drawing for more than 100 cities, school boards, and community college districts, and served as a data consultant for independent commissions in New York and New Mexico. Long recognized as a staunch advocate for independent, nonpartisan commission criteria, Mitchell frequently collaborates with civic organizations like Common Cause and the ACLU to protect communities of interest from partisan overreach. He stepped into intense statewide debate as the lead cartographer behind California's Proposition 50 congressional maps. Show Summary Can a partisan gerrymander ever be justified—even if it's meant to correct a wrong? In this episode of State of Gold, host Jon Slavet sits down with political data expert Paul Mitchell, the architect behind California’s highly controversial Proposition 50 gerrymander. Mitchell pulls back the curtain on the behind-the-scenes dynamics that birthed the measure, revealing his initial opposition to bypassing California's Independent Redistricting Commission. He details how he urged Democratic congressional leadership and the Governor's office to use the maps as a political "bluff" to deter Texas from aggressively redrawing its own lines. Mitchell defends the analytical integrity of his final map, explaining how he preserved key commission criteria and limited city splits while delivering the targeted five-seat shift demanded to balance the national scales. The conversation pivots to a mathematical dive into proportional representation, with Mitchell unpacking why geographical sorting makes drawing "perfectly balanced" rural and urban districts a technical impossibility. Finally, he offers a provocative reality check on how a looming, AI-driven automation wave could transform the landscape for American workers, framing wealth taxes not just as an ideology, but as a future survival mechanism for the state's economy. Chapters 00:00 – Prop 50: Did Two Wrongs Make a Right? 00:58 – The Anti-Gerrymander Cartographer: Mitchell’s Nonpartisan Roots 02:00 – The Texas Counter-Bluff: Advising a Partisan Stand-Off 03:00 – Maintaining Map Integrity Under Partisan Constraints 04:15 – Bludgeoning the Minority Party: The Disenfranchisement of Voters 05:14 – Latte Voters and Rural Reality: The Challenge of Underpopulated Districts 07:16 – Bypassing the Commission: The Incremental Push from Washington 07:51 – Long-Term Meditation: When Democrats Started Strategic Line Drawing 08:35 – Preserving Communities of Interest vs. "Bacon Strip" Public Maps 10:11 – The Proportionality Math Problem: Self-Segregation of Electorates 12:00 – High Taxes, Worse Outcomes: Sacramento’s Lack of Economic Leadership 12:48 – Low-Information Landslides: Why Voters Backed the Anti-Trump Narrative 14:55 – Low-Information Electorates and the Realities of the Campaign Trail 15:41 – The Billionaire Network: Evaluating Elite Mobility in California 16:00 – AI, Automation, and the Pitchfork Economy: Shifting Jobs on the Chopping Block 18:26 – Crude Mechanisms vs. Mileage Taxes: The Problem with Asset Liquidation 20:07 – The Societal Compact: Reinventing Government Infrastructure Through Private Gains 21:23 – Congressional Pass: Healthcare Deficits and Abdicating Responsibility Connect with Paul Mitchell * Twitter/X: https://x.com/paulmitche11 [https://x.com/paulmitche11] * LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paulmitche11/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/paulmitche11/] Enjoyed the episode? Subscribe to our podcast, leave a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify and join the conversation on Instagram and LinkedIn with the hashtag #stateofgoldpodcast Connect with State of Gold * X: https://x.com/realjonslavet [https://x.com/realjonslavet] * Linked In: https://www.linkedin.com/company/stateofgold/about [https://www.linkedin.com/company/stateofgold/about] * Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/stateofgoldpodcast/?hl=en [https://www.instagram.com/stateofgoldpodcast/?hl=en] * Website: www.stateofgold.com [https://stateofgold.com/]