Market Timing – Are You That Good? Stock Talk Update July 3, 2026

Market Timing – Are You That Good? Stock Talk Update July 3, 2026

Think you can outsmart the market? Every geopolitical crisis makes investors wonder if it's time to sell, but history tells a different story. In this week's Stock Talk, I explore why headlines surrounding Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Israel, China, and Taiwan often create short-term fear while long-term market performance has historically been driven by corporate earnings and interest rates. Using recent market examples, I explain why successful market timing requires getting two decisions right, when to sell and when to buy back, and why missing the recovery may be far more damaging than living through temporary volatility. If you're a retiree or pre-retiree wondering how world events could affect your portfolio, this discussion will help you separate emotion from evidence and focus on the long-term fundamentals that have historically mattered most. As always, this video is for educational purposes and is not individualized investment advice.   00:00 Introduction: Are You Really That Good at Market Timing? 01:56 Russia Invades Ukraine: What Actually Drove the Market? 05:16 Iran-Israel Conflict: Another Lesson in Market Resilience 07:17 Headlines vs. Earnings: What Really Moves Stocks? 08:34 The Problem with Market Timing 10:27 What History Continues to Teach Investors 11:40 Final Thoughts: Stay Disciplined, Stay Focused   Stock Talk is a weekly vlog/podcast dedicated to discussing the Oak Harvest Financial Group Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy with a little education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money!   Do you need a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at 877-896-0040 or fill out this form for a free visit: https://click2retire.com/lets-connect [https://click2retire.com/lets-connect]   Important disclosures: Content of Oak Harvest podcasts expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. Oak Harvest believes that any data, articles, or information cited are reliable at the time of creation, but does not warrant any information contained herein to be correct, complete, accurate, or timely. References to third-party analysts should not be seen as an endorsement of their views or recommendations, and you should do your own research before investing. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast constitutes personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Any specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

2H2026 Market Outlook Summit Highlights: The Market Is Up… But Volatility Isn’t Over

The biggest risk in a volatile market may not be the pullback itself, it may be the decisions investors make because of it. In this Stock Talk episode, Chris Perras and Charles Scavone of Oak Harvest Financial Group break down the major forces shaping the second half of 2026, including corporate earnings, peak earnings growth, interest rates, the U.S. dollar, a new Federal Reserve chairman, AI-related capital spending, and the excitement surrounding SpaceX. They also explain why earnings continue to be one of the most important drivers of long-term market performance, why volatility is a normal part of investing, and why trying to time the market can be especially risky for retirees and those approaching retirement. If you’re wondering whether to stay invested, adjust your allocation, or prepare for more market swings ahead, this conversation offers a practical look at what investors should be watching next.   00:12 1H Review + Volatility Setup 03:00 Earnings Resilience 06:51 Peak Earnings Growth / Rate of Change Risk 09:48 New Fed Chairman Risk 12:00 SpaceX / Capital Spending / Investment Discipline 13:05 Market Timing and Volatility 18:26 Dollar, Rates, and Normal Correction Statistics   Watch the full 2nd Half 2026 Market Outlook Summit Here: https://youtube.com/live/DHdImrS1AX0?feature=share [https://youtube.com/live/DHdImrS1AX0?feature=share]   Stock Talk is a weekly vlog/podcast dedicated to discussing the Oak Harvest Financial Group Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy with a little education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money!   Do you need a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at 877-896-0040 or fill out this form for a free visit: https://click2retire.com/lets-connect [https://click2retire.com/lets-connect]   Important disclosures: Content of Oak Harvest podcasts expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. Oak Harvest believes that any data, articles, or information cited are reliable at the time of creation, but does not warrant any information contained herein to be correct, complete, accurate, or timely. References to third-party analysts should not be seen as an endorsement of their views or recommendations, and you should do your own research before investing. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast constitutes personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Any specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

2H 2026 Market Outlook Preview - "In Some Years, Bull Riding Is Harder”

Is the 2026 bull market still intact, or is the harder part of the ride just beginning? In this Stock Talk preview, I walk through Oak Harvest’s Second Half 2026 Market Outlook livestream and explain what investors may want to watch as we move into the back half of the year, including S&P 500 earnings growth, interest rates, inflation expectations, energy prices, AI-driven capital spending, potential Federal Reserve policy changes, and the risk of renewed market volatility. I’ll also preview why our team believes the bull market may remain supported by strong corporate earnings and contained rates, while also acknowledging important headwinds such as slowing earnings growth, a new Fed chairman, and comparisons to the late 1990s technology cycle.   Join Troy Sharpe, Charles Scavone, and me live on Tuesday, June 23, 2026, at 6:00 PM Central as we discuss stocks, bonds, energy, valuations, portfolio positioning considerations, and live Q&A in a fair and balanced, educational format. https://click2retire.com/2h2026-register [https://click2retire.com/2h2026-register]   Stock Talk is a weekly vlog/podcast dedicated to discussing the Oak Harvest Financial Group Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy with a little education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money!   Do you need a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at 877-896-0040 or fill out this form for a free visit: https://click2retire.com/lets-connect [https://click2retire.com/lets-connect]   Important disclosures: Content of Oak Harvest podcasts expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. Oak Harvest believes that any data, articles, or information cited are reliable at the time of creation, but does not warrant any information contained herein to be correct, complete, accurate, or timely. References to third-party analysts should not be seen as an endorsement of their views or recommendations, and you should do your own research before investing. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast constitutes personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Any specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

When Good Isn't Good Enough: Stock Talk Update, June 13, 2026

Can strong earnings still disappoint investors? In this week’s Stock Talk, I explain why “good” results are not always good enough in today’s stock market.   Earnings season has been outstanding, with S&P 500 profit growth accelerating, margins remaining strong, and analysts raising expectations for the rest of 2026. But several high-quality companies still sold off after reporting strong results because stocks do not just react to earnings, they react to how those earnings compare to expectations already priced in.   In this episode, I break down why companies like Broadcom, CrowdStrike, NVIDIA, Ciena, Celestica, Deere, and others saw mixed or negative stock reactions despite solid earnings. I also discuss what FactSet’s latest earnings data says about S&P 500 earnings growth, profit margins, sector leadership, technology stocks, energy stocks, materials, health care weakness, and the outlook for the market through the rest of 2026.   The key takeaway: corporate fundamentals remain strong, but valuations and expectations are high. In this kind of market, companies need to beat expectations, raise guidance, and show continued acceleration.   About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He completed his undergraduate studies at Georgia Tech, and went on to obtain an MBA from the Harvard Business School. Driven by a desire to maximize his knowledge and skill set, he acquired financial planning and investment management qualifications, becoming a Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU®), a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC®), and a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®).   Stock Talk is a weekly vlog/podcast dedicated to discussing the Oak Harvest Financial Group Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy with a little education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money!   Do you need a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at 877-896-0040 or fill out this form for a free visit: https://click2retire.com/lets-connect [https://click2retire.com/lets-connect]   Important disclosures: Content of Oak Harvest podcasts expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. Oak Harvest believes that any data, articles, or information cited are reliable at the time of creation, but does not warrant any information contained herein to be correct, complete, accurate, or timely. References to third-party analysts should not be seen as an endorsement of their views or recommendations, and you should do your own research before investing. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast constitutes personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Any specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dot-Com Era (Oct. 1998–Mar. 2000) vs. Today (Apr. 2025–Current): 10 Similarities and Differences

Is the AI boom becoming the next dot-com bubble? In this video, I compare today’s AI-driven stock market with the 1999–2000 dot-com era, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, semiconductor stocks, Fed policy, inflation, GDP growth, oil prices, and investor psychology. While today’s market has clear dot-com similarities, AI leaders are more profitable and better established than many internet stocks of the late 1990s. For long-term investors, retirees, and pre-retirees, the focus remains the same: stay disciplined, stay diversified, and watch earnings growth.   About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He completed his undergraduate studies at Georgia Tech, and went on to obtain an MBA from the Harvard Business School. Driven by a desire to maximize his knowledge and skill set, he acquired financial planning and investment management qualifications, becoming a Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU®), a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC®), and a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®).   Stock Talk is a weekly vlog/podcast dedicated to discussing the Oak Harvest Financial Group Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy with a little education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money!   Do you need a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at 877-896-0040 or fill out this form for a free visit: https://click2retire.com/lets-connect [https://click2retire.com/lets-connect]   Important disclosures: Content of Oak Harvest podcasts expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. Oak Harvest believes that any data, articles, or information cited are reliable at the time of creation, but does not warrant any information contained herein to be correct, complete, accurate, or timely. References to third-party analysts should not be seen as an endorsement of their views or recommendations, and you should do your own research before investing. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast constitutes personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Any specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results.