The U.S. Can't Back Down: The Strait of Hormuz Closure Is Messier Than You Think with Michael Every

The U.S. Can't Back Down: The Strait of Hormuz Closure Is Messier Than You Think with Michael Every

This episode was recorded Tuesday, June 9th, before the current 'deal' was floated. Given world events, we decided to post this episode immediately as a special release, and deal or not, this conversation is an excellent overview of the issues and stakes of this evolving situation. In a media environment constantly contradicting itself, with every side proclaiming the advantage for themselves, the reality of what's happening in the Middle East gets lost amidst the day-to-day headlines. But for analysts who have been monitoring the underlying trends of the geopolitical gameboard for years, the direction is clear: the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz will likely not fully resolve within the next few months. If we truly accept the consequences of this, how will our global economy – built on interconnected supply chains and cheap energy – adapt to a geopolitical order fracturing before our eyes? In this episode, Nate is joined by Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, for an unflinching analysis of the Hormuz crisis and the fundamental principles pointing toward the Strait's closure for several more months. Michael walks through multiple scenarios – a TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), NATO military action, Chinese intervention behind the scenes – and explains why none of them offer an easy exit. The conversation expands to explore what this crisis means for the future of global energy trade, the emergence of rival production blocs, the collapse of demand-side macroeconomics, and the surprising potential for a more equitable world to emerge from the chaos. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or mostly closed into September, which countries hit their breaking point first, and will the order in which they break fundamentally change the balance of geopolitical power? How does everyday life change when price signals stop working and access is defined by availability rather than cost? And if this crisis truly accelerates the fracturing of our hyper-connected, globalized world into polarized blocs of energy and production, how might the disruption, for better or worse, shake up nearly a century of the macroeconomic theory that has shaped every part of our lives? (Conversation recorded on June 9th, 2026) About Michael Every: Michael Every is a Global Strategist at Rabobank with over two decades of experience. He analyzes major financial developments and contributes to the bank's various economic research publications. Before Rabobank, he was a Director at Silk Road Associates in Bangkok, Senior Economist and Fixed Income Strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in both London and Sydney, and an Economist for Dun & Bradstreet in London. Show Notes and More [https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/223-michael-every] Watch this video episode on YouTube [https://youtu.be/igg-Ykv8xKw] Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. [https://youtu.be/-xr9rIQxwj4?feature=shared] --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future [https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/support] Join our Substack newsletter [https://natehagens.substack.com/] Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners [https://www.hylo.com/groups/the-great-simplification/join/i9jLqPmbGI]

Why 'Community' Fails: Everyone Wants a Village, Nobody Wants to Be a Villager with Nora Bateson, Jonathan Goldsmith & Lucas Jackson | RR 26

Many of us lack meaningful community in our lives, either from a complete absence of relationships or simply the sense of disconnection from those around us. In response, a growing number of people attempt to cultivate community based on shared values and interests, which inadvertently reproduces the very labeling that keeps real connection forming. The systemic forces that created this separation are real, but what if the deeper problem is that most of us have never actually learned how to commune with each other in the first place? In this episode, Nate is joined by Nora Bateson, creator of Warm Data Labs, alongside her colleagues Jonathan Goldsmith and Lucas Jackson, for a rich conversation about what it actually takes to build community and why so many of our attempts fail. Drawing on Nora's concept of "communing" as the necessary precursor to community, the group explores how genuine human connection is being undermined by algorithmic fragmentation, scripted discourse, and cultures rooted in transaction and individualism. Rather than offering a formula for community-building, they make the case for something older: practices of mutual learning, radical hospitality, and a way of relating to others that breaks us out of the confines of our perceived roles. Together, they argue that the first step to being part of community is letting go of preconceived notions of what you are owed from the people around you, instead taking the first leap of giving more of oneself, and subsequently setting in motion the cycles of trust and generosity that keep a system alive. What fundamental pieces get lost when communities skip directly to organizing, logistics, and shared objectives? Why do the dark triad traits find less hold in spaces built around curiosity and mutual learning? And how does the act of generosity shift when it comes from a sense of shared aliveness and the knowledge that tending to the broader whole is how we must also tend to ourselves? About Nora Bateson Nora Bateson is a filmmaker, writer, researcher, and educator, and the founder and president of the International Bateson Institute. Her work focuses on the study of complex living systems and the development of "Warm Data" – a methodology for understanding the relational and contextual dimensions of systemic health. She is the author of Small Arcs of Larger Circles, and the creator of the acclaimed documentary An Ecology of Mind, a portrait of her father, systems thinker Gregory Bateson. Nora's work spans education, ecology, health, organizational change, and community, with the unifying thread of asking how we perceive and tend to the complexity of life together. About Jonathan Goldsmith Jonathan Goldsmith is a therapist, facilitator, and educator working at the intersection of systems thinking, relational practice, and community wellbeing. As a core member of the International Bateson Institute team, Jonathan brings the lens of mutual learning and ecological awareness to his work with individuals, groups, and organizations. He is a trained Warm Data host and has facilitated labs internationally. About Lucas Jackson Lucas Jackson is an educator, facilitator, and Warm Data host based in Vermont. He found his way to the International Bateson Institute through the Warm Data host training in 2020, and has since woven the practice of Warm Data into his teaching, community work, and relational life. His work centers on learning, perception, and the conditions that allow people to genuinely encounter one another. Show Notes and More [https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/reality-roundtable-26] Watch this video episode on YouTube [https://youtu.be/nG9RrjTtoBk] Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. [https://youtu.be/-xr9rIQxwj4?feature=shared] --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future [https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/support] Join our Substack newsletter [https://natehagens.substack.com/] Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners [https://www.hylo.com/groups/the-great-simplification/join/i9jLqPmbGI]

How to Think About the Future (Part 3): Uphill Futures in a Downhill World | Frankly 145

This week's Frankly is part three of the series How to Think About the Future. Today, Nate builds a framework for understanding the pathways that connect today's choices to tomorrow's realities. Drawing from biology, ecology, history, and systems thinking, he introduces a civilizational terrain of ridges and valleys that is constantly shifting as we are moving through it. Nate also uses the concepts of switchbacks and erosion to explain why some futures emerge by default from existing incentives and momentum, while others require deliberate effort, coordination, and sustained commitment. Through examples that range from cell development to lake ecosystems to political systems, Nate examines how complex systems settle into stable states, and why some transitions are far easier to make than to reverse. As economic, geopolitical, and ecological pressures reshape the landscape we traverse, knowing which futures are downhill and which require climbing becomes increasingly important. The episode offers a conceptual tool for interpreting the composite worlds Nate will outline in the next part of the series, and invites listeners to consider both where they stand in the terrain and whether their daily actions are building pathways toward a more desirable future, or letting those paths erode. How do societies become trapped in self-reinforcing systems, and what does that look like in our current reality? Which futures seem most likely if present incentives and momentum hold? And which social, cultural, or ecological switchbacks are being built today that could open new possibilities tomorrow (Recorded May 22nd, 2026) Show Notes and More [https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/145-how-to-think-about-the-future-part-3] Watch this video episode on YouTube [https://youtu.be/vTBQ1AS-KVw] Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. [https://youtu.be/-xr9rIQxwj4?feature=shared] --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future [https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/support] Join our Substack newsletter [https://natehagens.substack.com/] Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners [https://www.hylo.com/groups/the-great-simplification/join/i9jLqPmbGI]

The Missing Half of Climate Change: Why Our Planet is at 50% Capacity and How to Get it Back with Brett KenCairn

The Dust Bowl of the 1930s is one of the worst ecological disasters in American history. Across the great plains, roughly 2.5 million people left the region over the decade, amid severe crop failures, livestock losses and widespread hunger. Caused by drought and extreme land degradation, this regional collapse is also an example of what is now happening in ecosystems across the globe. The glimmer of hope in this story lies in the equally remarkable recovery of the Dust Bowl region, which has continued on as one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. What if we could name and replicate the techniques used to rehabilitate this once inhospitable landscape and use them to restore and regenerate local ecosystems across the planet? In this episode, Nate is joined by regenerative change practitioner Brett KenCairn for a conversation that reframes the dominant narrative about climate change, emphasizing that it was never just a carbon problem but also one centered on living systems degradation. Brett explains that the desolation of foundational, life-supporting ecosystems has resulted in our planet now operating at roughly half its biological productive capacity. Remarkably, this reframing also clears the way for a path forward: because most degradation is due to how humans have used the land, it means – if we act soon – altering our use of the land can also help regenerate lost capacity. Brett describes how his team and other regenerative experts are attempting to do just that by restoring biodiversity, water cycles, photosynthetic capacity, and (most importantly) opening the door to broad community participation through training, compensation, and meaningful work. What sorts of regenerative techniques might help bolster our local ecosystems' capacities to buffer, absorb, and cycle energy in order to support life during the extremes ahead? How could we alter our economic and social incentives to better support those doing the critical work to stabilize local ecology? And lastly, could the principles of living systems regeneration also act as an opportunity to reconnect with our place among the web of life, paving the way toward a humanity rooted in stewardship and reciprocity? (Conversation recorded on May 13th, 2026) About Brett KenCairn: Brett KenCairn is the Founding Director of Center for Regenerative Solutions and Senior Policy Advisor for Climate and Resilience in the City of Boulder's Climate Initiatives Team. He coordinates the city's nature-based solutions work. Brett has worked across the western US in community-based initiatives in rural, Native American, and other marginalized communities. He is the co-founder of multiple organizations including the Rogue River Institute for Ecology and Economy, Veterans Green Jobs, and Community Energy Systems. Show Notes and More [https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/222-brett-kencairn] Watch this video episode on YouTube [https://youtu.be/qvWO9U7hhSc] Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. [https://youtu.be/-xr9rIQxwj4?feature=shared] --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future [https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/support] Join our Substack newsletter [https://natehagens.substack.com/] Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners [https://www.hylo.com/groups/the-great-simplification/join/i9jLqPmbGI]

Casting Call for a Future Frankly

Link to submit: https://senja.io/p/the-great-simplification/r/share-your-technology [https://senja.io/p/the-great-simplification/r/share-your-technology] This week, Nate is putting out a call to listeners of this platform to share stories from the work they're doing on the ground, within their own communities and connections. He's specifically seeking stories that reflect technological innovation – either through goldilocks technology [https://youtu.be/BzC0AqN40U4?si=HvXzKMk_jfNtIaVq], social innovation [https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/social-sciences-and-humanities/social-innovation], or inner tech stacks [https://youtu.be/QynYlsW35Sw?si=XINxfUYL_EYNUWpo] – as responses to the more-than-human predicament. This can look many ways and apply to multiple scales, but the overall goal of this campaign is to celebrate the creativity and impact you've had while working on the issues that are most meaningful to you. Chosen stories will be shared on social media, and some will be included in upcoming Frankly episodes. It is our hope that showcasing the projects and initiatives of those actively shifting their own lives in response to the metacrisis may inspire a domino effect of ideas from others. The link to submit videos will only be live for the next two weeks, until June 12th – so if you'd like to share your story for this project the time is now. Thank you for the continued support for this content, and I look forward to hearing from you about your projects and how you embody this work. (Recorded May 27th, 2026)