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Prediction markets are making a 150-year comeback

51 min · 21. Mai 2026
Episode Prediction markets are making a 150-year comeback Cover

Beschreibung

Prediction market sites allow users to put money on everything from the war in Iran to the winner of the Super Bowl. But where did these markets come from? And what can that history tell us about where they might be going? Today on the show, how betting on popes and presidents long ago planted a seed for a “terrorism market” in the early 2000s, and how those early prediction markets shaped the industry that has taken hold today. Guests: Koleman Strumpf, economics professor at Wake Forest University Paul Rhode, economic historian at the University of Michigan. Robin Hanson, Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University and systems architect for the Policy Analysis Market Robert Forsythe, Professor of Finance at Wayne State University and co-founder of the Iowa Political Stock Market To access bonus episodes and listen to Throughline sponsor-free, subscribe to Throughline+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/throughline [plus.npr.org/throughline]. See pcm.adswizz.com [https://pcm.adswizz.com] for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences. NPR Privacy Policy [https://www.npr.org/about-npr/179878450/privacy-policy]

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Episode Prediction markets are making a 150-year comeback Cover

Prediction markets are making a 150-year comeback

Prediction market sites allow users to put money on everything from the war in Iran to the winner of the Super Bowl. But where did these markets come from? And what can that history tell us about where they might be going? Today on the show, how betting on popes and presidents long ago planted a seed for a “terrorism market” in the early 2000s, and how those early prediction markets shaped the industry that has taken hold today. Guests: Koleman Strumpf, economics professor at Wake Forest University Paul Rhode, economic historian at the University of Michigan. Robin Hanson, Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University and systems architect for the Policy Analysis Market Robert Forsythe, Professor of Finance at Wayne State University and co-founder of the Iowa Political Stock Market To access bonus episodes and listen to Throughline sponsor-free, subscribe to Throughline+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/throughline [plus.npr.org/throughline]. See pcm.adswizz.com [https://pcm.adswizz.com] for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences. NPR Privacy Policy [https://www.npr.org/about-npr/179878450/privacy-policy]

21. Mai 202651 min
Episode War by remote control, how drones changed modern warfare Cover

War by remote control, how drones changed modern warfare

Drones are swarming battlefields in Ukraine, Iran, and beyond. Drone warfare is cheap, efficient, autonomous — and changing warfare forever. Today on the show, the past, present and future of battle by remote control. This episode originally published in 2021 and has been updated. GUEST: James Rodgers, war historian and author of several books about drones, including Drones: What Everyone Needs to Know To access bonus episodes and listen to Throughline sponsor-free, subscribe to Throughline+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/throughline [plus.npr.org/throughline]. See pcm.adswizz.com [https://pcm.adswizz.com] for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences. NPR Privacy Policy [https://www.npr.org/about-npr/179878450/privacy-policy]

14. Mai 202650 min