Iran, Hormuz, and Assessing Global Risk with Ron Dodson

Iran, Hormuz, and Assessing Global Risk with Ron Dodson

Rod Dodson, hedge fund manager, global risk expert, and fellow Substacker is back on the podcast today to talk about the war with Iran and its strategic implications. In particular, Ron and I delve into what strategic objectives ought to be in a conflict like this one that pits a global superpower against a middle power that sits astride a global trade artery. e discuss the dynamics of alliance politics and how they influence decision making and may not always work in the interest of the stronger party. We both agree that while the war is demonstrating the value of a military alliance with Israel and the Arab states at the operational level, but disagree on the extent to which those alliances negatively impact America’s grand strategy. We also discuss the information domain and the propaganda war that has emerged in the American media, and the Trump administration’s apparent mishandling of the messaging. Ron rightly points out here and in his American Mind articles linked below that the constant reference to a nuclear threat hasn’t done the administration any favors. Subscribe to Tim Talks Politics⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ on Substack⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://timtalkspolitics.substack.com/pod] for the full show notes (30% off for podcast listeners)!

Operation(al) Epic Fury with Matt Van Hook

It’s not every day that you get the former Deputy Chief of Staff for US Air Force Central Command lined up to talk about the war in Iran, but that’s what you folks have today! You’ve heard Matt Van Hook on the podcast before to talk about everything from Abraham Lincoln to Operation Midnight Hammer, and if you’ve listened to those shows you know Matt’s a retired Air Force Lieutenant Colonel. That alone would give him some credibility to discuss the operational and strategic aspects of what has been dominantly an air war with Iran. But even more than that, Matt has spent significant chunks of his career in this particular theater of operations (Middle East) and area of responsibility (CENTCOM).  Today on the show, Matt and I work on sorting information from dis/misinformation when it comes to assessing the war, reframe the conversation on alliances away from the American media’s Euro-centric view and towards one that takes America’s regional allies into consideration, and Matt leverages the grandaddy of Western military thought, Carl von Clausewitz to give us a crash course on how to assess a military operation that’s unfolding in real time.  Subscribe to Tim Talks Politics⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ on Substack⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://timtalkspolitics.substack.com/pod] for the full show notes (30% off for podcast listeners)!

America and the Ayatollahs (Rebroadcast)

This is a rebroadcast of one of my earliest podcasts (apologies for the rough audio) because I think the content is more important than ever. Namely, the historical context of US-Iran relations pre- and post-1979 revolution has largely been ignored in conversations and debates surrounding Operation Epic Fury. As readers of my newsletter know, I truly believe that chronology and context are critical for understanding global events and why they unfold the way they do. This episode is my attempt to (re)introduce some chronology and context into our understanding of the conflict with Iran. In its own way, it’s an interesting artifact in itself. When I first aired this episode, it was at the tail end of the first Trump administration. Six years have passed since then that saw a global pandemic, the exit and return of Donald Trump to the Presidency, and, of course, Operation Midnight Hammer. Incredibly, the basic dynamics of the US-Iranian relationship have remained largely unchanged as breakdown throughout this episode. Subscribe to Tim Talks Politics⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ on Substack⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://timtalkspolitics.substack.com/pod] for the full show notes (30% off for podcast listeners)!

The Return of Christian Nationalism? with Mark David Hall

Mark Hall returns to the podcast to discuss the reemergence of Christian nationalism as a topic of interest to the Washington media. Mark and I review some of his work on White House-appointed advisory boards related to religious liberty and how that ties in to (or doesn’t) the conversation on Christian nationalism. We then pivot to breaking down a recent survey by PRRI that seems to have contributed to renewed concerns about Christian nationalism’ prevalence in conservative politics. We find that much of the pearl clutching seems to stem from a misreading of the data, or rather, reading the data through preestablished lenses, despite there being no meaningful change in terms of actual numbers of Christian nationalists in America. In the course of the discussion, we also uncover a key data point in the survey that undermines a significant driver of the alarmism that often accompanies reporting on Christian nationalism. Subscribe to Tim Talks Politics⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ on Substack⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://timtalkspolitics.substack.com/pod] for the full show notes (30% off for podcast listeners)!

One Year of Trump 2.0 with Scott Waller, Matt Van Hook, Dustin Steeve

It’s a panel discussion on the podcast today as Dr. Scott Waller, Dr. Matt Van Hook and Dustin Steeve rejoin the podcast to unpack the arguable normal first year of Trump 2.0 despite the consequential vibes. Bottom line, despite movement on key campaign promises with measurable results, Waller notes that the Trump administration’s first year is something of a “normal” presidency, and Van Hook makes the point that what makes it feel consequential is that the Biden administration was just so poor in its execution that “normal” presidential behavior makes it seem extreme. Steeve underscores that point by unpacking the extent of the Biden administration’s dereliction of duty on immigration, in particular. With the midterm election cycle taking shape and voters registering some displeasure with the economy and the handling of immigration, my guests all agree that the Trump administration has leaned into doing the hard work of governing, even if it means short term pain in the approval ratings, a posture for which we give the Trump administration high marks, even as we wait to see how a lot of these efforts play out. Subscribe to Tim Talks Politics⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ on Substack⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://timtalkspolitics.substack.com/pod] for the full show notes (30% off for podcast listeners)!