Top Traders Unplugged

With markets drifting and conviction thinning, Rob Carver joins Niels to take stock of a moment that feels suspended... not quite crisis, not quite calm. They discuss why recent rule changes around bank capital and crypto assets may carry more weight than headlines suggest, and what falling shipping volumes might be whispering about global demand. Rob breaks down the math of drawdowns, the tension between Kelly sizing and real-world volatility, and how systematic managers can fool themselves into thinking they’re diversified. It’s a conversation about structure, discipline, and why most edges today come from avoiding mistakes rather than discovering secrets. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter [https://my.captivate.fm/@InvestingIdiocy]. Episode TimeStamps: 01:07 - What has caught out attention recently? 01:23 - Rob and Niels have done the unthinkable 02:59 - Fed is rolling back important capital rules 05:22 - What the shipping industry reveals about the economy 07:33 - Industry performance update 16:00 - Q1, William: Is it possible to apply the concept of decomposing returns in commodity trading? 27:24 - Q2, Raphael: About estimating the full sharpe and Kelly of trend following 37:03 - Q3, Dom: Has Rob come across any useful frameworks, research, or resources for designing systems that intentionally combine systematic structure with discretionary judgment? 41:52 - Are all managers the same, although we all claim to be different? 52:26 - Why are bond investors contrarian while equity investors extrapolate? 01:01:59 - "What if you missed the best days of a market?" 01:11:53 - Rounding up Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]

Bob Elliott joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation about what happens when strong economic data masks a deeper structural shift. The income engine still runs, but tariffs, labor scarcity, and immigration limits are quietly rewiring the system. Inflation may not fall the way people expect. Profit margins may not hold. And capital may start flowing away from the US for the first time in a generation. This isn’t a cycle call. It’s a question of what kind of economy we are becoming—and whether portfolios built for the past can survive what’s coming. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter [https://twitter.com/jam_croissant]. Follow Bob on Twitter. [https://x.com/bobeunlimited?lang=en] Episode TimeStamps: 02:58 - Revisiting the Income Driven Expansion 12:30 - Inflation Dynamics and Economic Policy 15:31 - The Dynamics of Labor and Immigration 27:58 - Strategic Decoupling and Its Implications 32:04 - The Economic Implications of Manufacturing in China 42:13 - Economic Growth and Market Dynamics 48:28 - The Evolving Landscape of Investment Strategies 53:25 - Understanding Alpha Strategies and Portfolio Diversification 01:01:10 - The Dynamics of Hedge Fund Strategies and Correlation 01:09:34 - Global Macro Trends and Financial Decoupling Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]

Some of the most effective portfolio components may generate little or no return on their own. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore that discomfort - why allocators often overlook strategies that offer the most structural value. Through a series of new research papers, they examine how negative correlation, volatility, and capital efficiency can outweigh standalone performance, and why trend following continues to challenge conventional assumptions. It’s a conversation about construction over conviction, contribution over headline returns, and the gap between what improves a portfolio and what investors are willing to own. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Yoav on LinkedIn. [https://www.linkedin.com/in/yoavgit/?originalSubdomain=uk] Episode TimeStamps: 00:13 - Introduction and latest update 07:57 - Trend Following score card 12:38 - Latest paper from R.G. Niederhoffer 26:45 - Latest insights from Quantica Capital 36:55 - Review of Soc Gen's latest report on the state of the CTA Industry 44:52 - The Science and Practice of Trend-following Systems paper by Artur Sepp Resources discussed in this Episode: * LINK SI353: From Tariffs to Trends [https://quantica-capital.com/en/publication/qi-2025Q2] * LINK SI353: Keeping up with the Trend-Followers [https://content.sgmarkets.com/CTA_UPDATE_KEEPING_UP_WITH_THE_TRENDFOLLOWERS_2025] * LINK SI353: The Science & Practice of Trend-Following Systems [https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3167787] Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]

Barry Eichengreen joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at a system losing its anchors. The dollar’s standing, long insulated by trust and habit, now faces a different kind of test... one shaped less by challengers abroad than by fractures at home. They explore how rising debt, political entropy, and institutional strain are converging in ways that markets are only beginning to price. From the quiet retreat of safe haven flows to the uneasy future of central bank independence, this is a conversation about slow shifts with fast consequences, and what happens when credibility, not currency, becomes the liability. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter [https://mobile.twitter.com/alanjdunne]. Follow Barry on Twitter. [https://x.com/b_eichengreen?lang=en] Episode TimeStamps: 00:09 - Introduction to Barry Eichengreen 03:51 - The Future of the Dollar: Concerns and Predictions 14:29 - Fiscal Challenges and Policy Responses 33:04 - Analyzing Economic Policies and Their Impacts 49:18 - Global Economic Perspectives: Trade Wars and Currency Alternatives 56:46 - The Future of Global Currency Systems Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]

Nick Baltas is back with Niels for a conversation that sits at the intersection of technology, uncertainty, and discipline. As AI-generated data floods the system and market reversals grow sharper, the challenge isn’t just strategy design — it’s deciding what still counts as signal. They explore how systematic managers are rethinking volatility targets, why certain constraints persist in institutional portfolios, and what recent underperformance may actually be revealing. This episode is less about solutions than about orientation: how to stay aligned when the tools evolve faster than the terrain, and when conviction must coexist with doubt. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter [https://twitter.com/nbaltas]. Episode TimeStamps: 00:01 - Introduction to Systematic Investing 02:11 - The Impact of AI and Machine Learning on Data Analysis 07:05 - The Impact of AI on Education and Examination Policies 12:06 - Transitioning Perspectives on Democracy and Markets 21:49 - Dynamic Volatility Targeting in Portfolio Management 24:24 - Exploring Volatility and Leverage 29:50 - Understanding Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics 36:29 - Exploring Investment Constraints and Strategies 45:04 - Rethinking Investment Constraints 49:36 - Strategic Allocations and Market Timing 56:11 - Market Dynamics and Trend Following 01:00:09 - The Evolution of Systematic Investing Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/] 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/] 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/] Privacy Policy [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/] Disclaimer [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/]