Baird Fixed Income Insights: Convexity Pulse

Refinance Friction Zone of High DTI & Return of Convexity Hedging Monster

Every generation believes it is navigating unprecedented uncertainty. This week, Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer explore what that uncertainty means for mortgage investors today. The discussion covers a surge in bond fund inflows, renewed strength in agency MBS performance, and the increasingly constructive technical backdrop created by limited supply and delayed refinancing activity. The hosts then examine whether the "convexity beast" is beginning to wake up as higher-coupon collateral and shifting ownership dynamics bring mortgage hedging flows back into focus. The episode concludes with a look at rising borrower debt-to-income ratios and a new perspective on refinance risk. Rather than focusing solely on underwriting denial thresholds, Kirill and Steven argue that refinance flexibility may gradually erode long before borrowers encounter a hard underwriting wall.

Diminishing Returns of GSE Buying and an Extra Scoop of Amerihome Gelato

In this week’s Convexity Pulse, Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer discuss why volatility, rather than the outright direction of rates, may remain the most important variable for agency MBS investors as markets navigate a resilient labor market, geopolitical uncertainty, and an important upcoming inflation report. They examine whether the market is placing too much emphasis on GSE portfolio growth and not enough on the diminishing marginal impact of additional agency purchases, funding constraints, and the increasingly important role of private capital. The episode also explores a surprising specified-pool opportunity within AmeriHome collateral, where slower refinance responsiveness and correspondent-lending dynamics have created compelling relative-value opportunities across First-Time Buyer and low-loan-balance stories.

Future of OTM Speeds & The New Low Loan Balance Playbook

In this week’s Convexity Pulse, Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer discuss why agency MBS fundamentals remain more constructive than recent volatility would suggest, despite geopolitical uncertainty and seasonal supply pressures. They examine the growing role of non-rate-driven borrower behavior, including how retirement funding needs, rising housing costs, and increasing homeowner liquidity demands could reshape prepayment patterns in seasoned discount collateral and certain segments of Ginnie Mae MBS. The episode also explores Freddie Mac’s overhaul of low-loan-balance pooling practices and what the changes reveal about the evolution of specified-pool investing, prepayment modeling, and collateral differentiation in today’s mortgage market.

The Officially Unofficial 50th Show and The State of Convexity in the State of FL

In this week’s Convexity Pulse, Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer finally reunite for the podcast’s long-delayed “50th” episode and discuss a mortgage market caught between elevated volatility and still-powerful carry dynamics. They examine how strong fixed income inflows, resilient refinance friction, and improving higher-coupon prepayment behavior continue supporting agency MBS despite rising Treasury yields and macro uncertainty. The episode also explores growing stress within consumer balance sheets, where rising insurance costs, HELOC usage, and elevated DTIs are creating increasingly segmented borrower behavior. Finally, they dive into two evolving specified pool stories: Florida collateral, where refinance friction is beginning to resemble New York-style call protection, and UWM low-balance pools, where selective recapture behavior is reshaping historical prepayment assumptions.

Everything’s Bigger in Texas… Including OTM Prepays

In this week’s Convexity Pulse, Kirill Krylov discusses how the mortgage market is transitioning from a volatility-driven environment toward one increasingly supported by carry, stable demand, and improving higher-coupon prepayment behavior. He examines the sharp rebound in gross agency MBS issuance while highlighting why net supply dynamics remain much tighter beneath the surface, particularly within the GSE market. The episode also explores how seasoned Texas collateral is emerging as one of the more interesting turnover stories in the mortgage market, as rising property taxes, insurance costs, and generational housing transitions weaken the traditional lock-in effect. The discussion highlights why mobility-driven prepays may remain surprisingly resilient even in a higher-rate environment.