Let's Talk Energy

The AI arms race has a critical minerals problem, with Michael Walshe and Jeff Dickerson

Join us for our annual Summits in Singapore, Houston and London: https://rystad.info/49X79uF [https://rystad.info/49X79uF] Let’s Talk Energy and dig into the increasingly contentious world of critical minerals. These materials, and particularly rare earth elements, have vaulted to the forefront of the growing intersection between energy and security, forcing the West to reckon with China’s almost complete dominance of a sector that is the building block for everything from renewable power generation and batteries to computer chips and radar systems. The US and many of its allies are trying to rapidly develop a viable alternative supply chain through a combination of industrial policy, trade diplomacy and innovation. While seen as a critical issue for both countries, the summit between China’s President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump resulted in no concrete advances in trade policy, leaving an uneasy truce between the two sides.  How did China become so dominant in mining and processing critical minerals, particularly rare earth elements and how is it using this leverage?  How can the West begin to close the gap and why are new approaches needed for non-Chinese companies to compete?  What does a viable critical minerals industry in the West look like, and how long could it take to develop?   Related Analysis  Putting things in perspective: Data center investments now on par with renewables, oil and gas [https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/putting-things-in-perspective-data-center-investments-now-on-par-with-renewables] (available to non-clients)   Battery Metals Weekly: US zeros in on independent critical minerals supply [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/670835?qid=3b7f80a1f9e0d105c328978e7c5c173f&oid=doc_670835] (clients only)  Battery Metals Weekly: US eyes recycling for critical mineral independence [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/648889?qid=3b7f80a1f9e0d105c328978e7c5c173f&oid=doc_648889](clients only)  Tariff update: Tariff politics intensify as G7 mineral bloc forms [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/647391?qid=3b7f80a1f9e0d105c328978e7c5c173f&oid=doc_647391] (clients only)  Related Episodes   Will power-hungry data centers overwhelm the grid? [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/will-power-hungry-data-centers-overwhelm-the-grid]  Winners and losers in Trump’s energy agenda [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/winners-and-losers-in-trump-s-energy-agenda-with-mike-mccormick]  Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy [http://www.rystadenergy.com/] Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og [https://badeog.no/].    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/rystad-energy/]    YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Rystad.Energy]    Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/rystad_energy/]    X [https://x.com/RystadEnergy]

Running on empty: How the Middle East war is squeezing jet fuel markets, with Susan Bell

Join us for our annual Summits in Singapore, Houston and London: https://rystad.info/48VVL1M [https://rystad.info/48VVL1M] Let’s Talk Energy and take the pulse of the aviation industry as it struggles to source enough fuel as the Middle East war dries up global supplies.    Airlines are facing their biggest test since Covid. While Brent futures are up 70+% this year, jet fuel prices have doubled in Europe and risen 110% in Asia over 2025 averages.   The situation caused the CEO of United Airlines to warn ticket prices could increase by about 20%. Lufthansa canceled 20,000 flights that it said were no longer profitable.  US budget carrier Spirit Airlines stopped flying altogether after declaring bankruptcy. And finally, Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned that Europe could start running out of jet fuel in as little as six weeks.    How has the war hit jet fuel supplies, and why has the price squeeze been even worse for jet than for crude?   How are refiners reacting to the shortage, and do high prices necessarily mean high margins for the sector?   What can countries do – short of grounding flights – to manage this market and help consumers cope with the runup in prices?     Related Analysis  Special Report #4: Middle East conflict implications [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/715227?qid=630f0b55fc44cf2c92bd55cc012482fd&oid=doc_715227] (available to non-clients)  Hormuz crisis reshapes clean fuel investment across the transportation space [https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/hormuz-crisis-reshapes-clean-fuel-investment-across-the-transportation-space] (available to non-clients)  AusFuel Monitor: Emergency cargoes steady Australia jet-fuel supply for now [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/715389?qid=3a7ab30ec81f3eb415b0cdda5532d394&oid=doc_715389] (clients only)   Weekly insight: Europe’s jet-fuel market tightens as replacements fall short [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/715129?qid=3a7ab30ec81f3eb415b0cdda5532d394&oid=doc_715129] (clients only)  Weekly insight: Middle East strikes force jet fuel cracks to soar  [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/693367?qid=3a7ab30ec81f3eb415b0cdda5532d394&oid=doc_693367](clients only)    Related Episodes   What China’s oil stockpiling means for OPEC+, prices and global trade, with Lin Ye [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/what-chinas-oil-stockpiling-means-for-opec-prices-and-global-trade]  The Hormuz crisis and the real cost of a barrel of oil [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/the-hormuz-crisis-and-the-real-cost-of-a-barrel-of-oil-with-paola-rodriguez-masiu]  Asia's oil scramble is reshaping crude markets [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/asias-oil-scramble-is-reshaping-crude-markets-with-lin-ye-and-priya-walia]    Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy [http://www.rystadenergy.com/] Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og [https://badeog.no/].    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/rystad-energy/]    YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Rystad.Energy]    Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/rystad_energy/]    X [https://x.com/RystadEnergy]

Asia's oil scramble is reshaping crude markets, with Lin Ye and Priya Walia

This episode was recorded on Thursday, 30 April 2026. Join us for our annual Summits in Singapore, Houston and London: https://rystad.info/4dgjr2q [https://rystad.info/4dgjr2q] Let’s Talk Energy and look at how oil-importing countries in Asia are coping with the loss of vital Middle East supply as benchmark prices hit four-year highs above $120. Following the start of the war in the Middle East, many refiners in Asia, who are the largest buyers of barrels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, have spent the two months scrambling to find alternative supplies and bidding up spot cargoes of certain grades. But, at least in one country, that is changing. Recently, China’s refiners have flipped their approach and are selling cargoes back into the market, as export curbs, price controls and price-sensitive consumers hurt the economics of turning the crude into fuel. The change comes at a time when so-called alternative supplies, including those from Russia and Iranian cargoes that had continued to transit until the most recent US blockade of Hormuz, come under increasing pressure. But first, we look at the dynamics surrounding the departure of the UAE from Opec+ and how it could impact the markets in the near-term and further into the future.   How are major Asian importers finding the barrels they need at a price they can afford, while also shielding consumers from higher fuel costs?  How has China’s strategic shift impacted both physical and futures markets and how might we expect that behavior to evolve?   And will sanctions on one of China’s largest teapot refineries create a bidding war with Indian refiners over a limited available volume of Russian barrels.     Related Analysis  China resells crude as Asia absorbs the supply shock unevenly [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/715013?qid=eacb7d8f2fc644d972a04af67e7e62b3&oid=doc_715013] (clients only)  The oil chokepoint: China’s evolving playbook for Strait of Hormuz crisis [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/695363?qid=1be05808bf21fa120312eb6f37b7e5ce&oid=doc_695363]  (clients only)  The UAE's exit and the limits of OPEC+ control: Special report #4, Middle East conflict [https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/special-report-4-middle-east-conflict-implications] (available to non-clients)  US sanctions on China’s Hengli aim to choke Iran - petroyuan gets a boost [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/715225?qid=eb8302485ec1ec44246ce474c04be156&oid=doc_715225] (clients only)  Oil Trading Market Update: Demand destruction is here, but not where you may think [https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/Demand-destruction-is-here-but-not-where-you-may-think] (available to non-clients)  UAE’s OPEC exit can help alleviate pain for Indian refineries [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/715217?qid=eb8302485ec1ec44246ce474c04be156&oid=doc_715217]  (clients only)  Gulf shut-ins could reduce regional crude output by 70% if US-Iran war drags on [https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/gulf-shut-ins-could-reduce-regional-crude-output-by-70percent-if-us-iran-war-drag] (available to non-clients)  Russian supply hit by drone attacks, but worst-case risks fade for now [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/715203?qid=eb8302485ec1ec44246ce474c04be156&oid=doc_715203](clients only)    Related Episodes  How the Middle East war is reshaping Asia’s upstream strategy, with Prateek Pandey [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/how-the-middle-east-war-is-reshaping-asias-upstream-strategy]  The Hormuz crisis and the real cost of a barrel of oil [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/the-hormuz-crisis-and-the-real-cost-of-a-barrel-of-oil-with-paola-rodriguez-masiu]  What China’s oil stockpiling means for OPEC+, prices and global trade, with Lin Ye [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/what-chinas-oil-stockpiling-means-for-opec-prices-and-global-trade]    Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy [http://www.rystadenergy.com/] Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og [https://badeog.no/].    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/rystad-energy/]    YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Rystad.Energy]    Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/rystad_energy/]    X [https://x.com/RystadEnergy]

How Malaysia is looking to seize its upstream opportunity, with Petronas SVP Datuk Bacho Pilong

Join us for our annual Summits in Singapore, Houston and London: https://rystad.info/4eNpspm [https://rystad.info/4eNpspm]   Let’s Talk Energy with Datuk Bacho Pilong, Senior Vice President at Petronas and head of Malaysia Petroleum Management, the Southeast Asian nation’s upstream regulator. Malaysia is a long-time oil producer and is currently the world’s fifth-largest LNG exporter, providing crucial supply diversification for gas importers in the region. At the same time, the country’s own energy needs are growing rapidly as its economy matures, requiring new fields and further investment to keep both its domestic market and its international customers well supplied. Pilong’s task has taken on greater urgency following the war in the Middle East, which has caused energy importers, including Malaysia, to re-emphasize domestic supplies and has brought renewed interest from international companies looking to manage growing supply risks through greater geographic diversity in their portfolios.   What are Malaysia’s goals for its upstream sector and what are its strategies to achieve them?   How is the nation’s latest bid round progressing and what is the outlook for international investments?   What will be the impact of the war in the Middle East on interest and activity in Malaysia’s upstream sector?   Related Analysis  Malaysia elevates exploration pitch with data investments and tech execution [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/693253?qid=b647a487b47ec8e60a8b786f6a86a132&oid=doc_693253] (clients only)  Bridging the looming production gap [https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/bridging-the-looming-production-gap] (available to non-clients)  Eni’s Geliga find reaffirms Indonesia’s deepwater turbidite play potential [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/715017?qid=c5c5bf460b512900a81a4e67285808ae&oid=doc_715017] (clients only)  Asia's Energy Buyers: Between a Rock and a Hard Place [https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/asias-energy-buyers-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place] (available to non-clients)  Related Episodes  How the Middle East war is reshaping Asia’s upstream strategy, with Prateek Pandey [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/how-the-middle-east-war-is-reshaping-asias-upstream-strategy]  The Hormuz crisis and the real cost of a barrel of oil [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/the-hormuz-crisis-and-the-real-cost-of-a-barrel-of-oil-with-paola-rodriguez-masiu]  Middle East escalation and the scramble for LNG, with Sindre Knutsson [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/middle-east-escalation-and-scramble-of-lng]  Could Middle East conflict break energy supply chains? With Matthew Fitzsimmons [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/could-middle-east-conflict-break-energy-supply-chains]  Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy [http://www.rystadenergy.com/] Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og [https://badeog.no/].    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/rystad-energy/]    YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Rystad.Energy]    Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/rystad_energy/]    X [https://x.com/RystadEnergy]

The Hormuz crisis and the real cost of a barrel of oil, with Paola Rodriguez-Masiu

Let’s Talk Energy and dive into the details of the stressed physical oil market. According to the news, Brent oil is trading around $95 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate or WTI is around $88. But refiners will tell you that finding a barrel that can be delivered today at those prices is difficult, and they may need to pay as much as $15 or $20 more, challenging the economics of making gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. That difference between the financial – or paper markets – and the market for physical barrels has big implications for fuel supplies and how we think about the potential impacts of the war on the global economy.   How much does it really cost to buy a barrel of oil, and how has the gap between futures and physical markets trended since the start of the war?  What does this mean for the refining sector and the prices consumers will pay to fill up their tank or buy a plane ticket?   What options do governments have left to try to limit the economic damage from the energy crisis?  Related Analysis  Ceasefire pulls oil off war highs, but physical markets need time to rebalance [https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/ceasefire-oil-markets-need-time-to-rebalance] (accessible for non-clients)  Demand destruction is here, but not where you may think [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/714679?qid=ba046477d534098e291c7658495c7769&oid=doc_714679] (clients only)  Asia's Energy Buyers: Between a Rock and a Hard Place [https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/asias-energy-buyers-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place] (accessible for non-clients)  The curve says ‘run’ to refiners, the physical market says ‘not so fast’ [https://portal.rystadenergy.com/article-detail/695065?qid=ba046477d534098e291c7658495c7769&oid=doc_695065] (clients only)  The oil market did not underreact. It just had buffers [https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/oil-market-did-not-underreact-it-just-had-buffers] (accessible for non-clients)    Related Episodes  How the Middle East war is reshaping Asia’s upstream strategy, with Prateek Pandey [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/how-the-middle-east-war-is-reshaping-asias-upstream-strategy]  What China’s oil stockpiling means for OPEC+, prices and global trade, with Lin Ye [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/what-chinas-oil-stockpiling-means-for-opec-prices-and-global-trade]  How will Middle East conflict impact energy and the economy? With Claudio Galimberti [https://www.rystadenergy.com/podcasts/how-will-middle-east-conflict-impact-energy-and-the-economy]    Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy [http://www.rystadenergy.com/] Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og [https://badeog.no/].    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/rystad-energy/]    YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Rystad.Energy]    Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/rystad_energy/]    X [https://x.com/RystadEnergy]