Eurodollar University

If you were to go off of only data collected by the Federal Reserve on the economy, you'd be left with no other option than to see it at best on the doorstep of full-blown recession. Yet, officials argue inflation anyway. The real question is where all this information and evidence instead fits the "labor curve." Unfortunately, the Fed's numbers all fall on flat.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Fed Beige Book April 2025 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250423.pdf Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey  https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2025/2504#tab-report https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:  http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ While other airlines were pulling their forecasts afraid to tell the truth and preferring to hide under behind "uncertainty", Southwest's CEO bluntly stated there's a recession. And that's exactly what is starting to emerge from the Federal Reserve's very own contacts, thus why former FOMC hawks are now sounding incredibly dovish, the fundamentals of interest rates in all directions.  Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Bloomberg Southwest CEO Says US Airline Industry Is Already in a Recession https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/southwest-ceo-says-us-airline-industry-is-already-in-a-recession Fed Beige Book April 2025 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250423.pdf https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Weakness in key Asian bellwether has authorities there panicking into bailouts, setting its central on course to be the next major to head into "historically" low interest rates. That's not all, there's already spillover from the tariff shock in China where reports show work stoppages and factory closings. And rates there are right back near record lows.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ChosunBiz South Korea's economy faces 0.2% GDP decline amid tariff and political turmoil https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-policy/2025/04/24/O6H63WLPC5BHDE3HUEYUTF6UUM South Korea Ministerial Meeting on Economic Affairs and Ministerial Meeting on Strengthening Industrial Competitiveness (Apr.15, 2025) https://english.moef.go.kr/pc/selectTbPressCenterDtl.do;jsessionid=ngE3YYBKCpQ6L--F1ty-I76Sl7rjfIGh94TDtjlr.node20?boardCd=N0001&seq=6146 FT Chinese factories slow production and send workers home as US tariffs bite https://www.ft.com/content/d5784258-4de3-44a1-94ae-6f763857b034 https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:  http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Walmart isn't sitting on tariffs. They instead rolling back more prices understanding what Chipotle just found out the hard way. The burrito bowl restaurant reported its first sales decline since the lockdowns, and the reason why has everyone from airlines to Walmart scrambling.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Walmart Amps Up Discounts as Rivals Weigh Tariff-Driven Hikes https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/walmart-amps-up-discounts-to-lure-cost-conscious-customers Bloomberg Walmart Keeps Price Pressure on Suppliers After Beijing Pushback https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/walmart-keeps-price-pressure-on-suppliers-after-beijing-pushback CNBC Chipotle is seeing a ‘slowdown’ in consumer spending as 2025 gets off to a rough start https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/chipotle-mexican-grill-cmg-q1-2025-earnings.html Bloomberg American Air Is Latest US Carrier to Give Up on 2025 Forecast https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/american-air-aal-pulls-full-year-outlook-on-soft-travel-demand-worry Bloomberg United Airlines Is So Unsure About the Economy It Offers Two Profit Scenarios https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/united-air-flags-recessionary-risk-while-keeping-profit-target CNBC Alaska Airlines warns of slower demand as second-quarter profit outlook falls short https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/alaska-air-alk-1q-2025-earnings.html SPG Composite PMI flash April 2025 https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/9ee36c52b8a649adada211c1842512be https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

While the whole world seems convinced the rest of it is rotating away from Treasuries, the actual evidence unequivocally shows something very different. This isn't a one-time relationship, either. Instead, a deep fundamental basis that connects repo, interest rates foundations, global banks, and the recent deflationary developments.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Traders View Treasury Auctions as Litmus Test for Foreign Buyers https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-23/us-treasury-auctions-offer-latest-clues-on-foreign-buyers-strike https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU