Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Why Should We Care About the India Trump Made? | with James Crabtree

The U.S.-India partnership has been a cornerstone of American Indo-Pacific strategy for two decades, but it’s now facing its most serious crisis. After bipartisan American efforts to bring India into closer partnership as a counterweight to China, President Trump has triggered the most dramatic deterioration in U.S.-India relations in a generation. What began with optimism in Delhi about Trump 2.0 has devolved into a breakdown of trust, escalating tariffs, and diplomatic miscalculation that threatens the entire architecture of Indo-Pacific security. In this essential episode, hosts Ray Powell (former U.S. military officer) and Jim Carouso (former U.S. diplomat) welcome back James Crabtree - distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, former Financial Times bureau chief for India, and author of the acclaimed book “The Billionaire Raj.” Drawing on his recent Foreign Affairs article, “The India That Trump Made,” Crabtree unpacks how two decades of strategic partnership have been upended in less than a year. What Happened? India expected favorable treatment from Trump given Modi’s strong personal relationship with the president during his first term. Instead, they received 50% tariffs - first 25% on general goods, then another 25% for buying Russian oil, putting India’s tariff burden equal to China’s. Then came the Pakistan crisis: when India and Pakistan clashed in Operation Sindor, Trump claimed credit for brokering a ceasefire that India insists he didn’t actually broker. Trump’s perceived slight over not receiving sufficient credit has fueled ongoing tensions, while Pakistan successfully leveraged the moment through crypto deals, a Nobel Peace Prize nomination for Trump, and high-level military diplomacy. Strategic Consequences The Quad, the critical U.S.-Australia-India-Japan partnership, is essentially stalled, with a planned summit canceled and little energy for revival. India is now pursuing what Crabtree calls a “pivot to Europe,” seeking to replace American technology transfer, investment, and defense expertise with European alternatives. An EU-India summit in January will likely announce a long-negotiated trade deal, marking India’s shift toward multi-alignment rather than U.S. partnership. Meanwhile, Pakistan has successfully re-emerged as a regional player, signing security treaties with Saudi Arabia that include nuclear assurances and repositioning itself diplomatically after years in India’s shadow. Russia remains a “diminishing asset” for India due to supply unreliability and limited technological offerings, though Delhi still needs Moscow for defense systems like the S-400 and to prevent Russia from becoming a complete Chinese vassal state. India’s Future Despite the diplomatic turbulence, India posted 8% GDP growth last quarter and remains on a positive economic trajectory, though still a developing country at $2,000-3,000 per capita income. Prime Minister Modi, now in his third term and 11 years in office, continues to dominate Indian politics and will likely seek a fourth term, cementing his status as the most significant political figure in independent Indian history. India’s “Make in India” defense ambitions are advancing slowly, with systems like the BrahMos missile finding export success in Southeast Asia, though India remains heavily import-dependent for military hardware. Can U.S.-India trust be rebuilt? Crabtree is pessimistic: “The trust that had been built up between the U.S. and India over a two-decade period has been destroyed”. The pro-American camp in Delhi that architected the strategic partnership has been undermined, while pro-Russia voices feel vindicated. 👉 Follow James Crabtree on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamescrabtree2000/] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

EMERGENCY EPISODE: Why Should We Care if America Just Deposed Venezuela’s Dictator? | with Col. (Ret) Michael Burgoyne and Dr. Robert Burrell

In Episode 122, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Dr. Robert Burrell, retired US Marine Corps officer and irregular warfare specialist, and Colonel (Ret.) Michael Burgoyne, University of Arizona professor and former Army attaché in Mexico, to analyze the unprecedented US military operation in Venezuela that captured President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. The experts explore the operation’s implications for the Indo-Pacific, US foreign policy, and the international rules-based order. The Venezuela Operation: A New Precedent Burrell and Burgoyne dissect the extraordinary special operations mission that extracted Maduro in just two and a half hours. The guests explain how three decades of authoritarian rule under Hugo Chávez and Maduro created a nexus between China, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah in America’s hemisphere. The 2024 election, won by opposition candidate Edmundo González, was rigged by Maduro, prompting the Trump administration’s decisive action led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Legal and Strategic Implications The discussion examines the operation’s framing as a law enforcement action under foreign terrorist organization designations - a controversial use of Article 2 presidential powers without Congressional authorization. Burgoyne warns this unilateral approach abandons post-WWII hemispheric cooperation frameworks like the Organization of American States Charter and the “Good Neighbor Policy,” returning instead to early 20th-century interventionism reminiscent of Theodore Roosevelt’s corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. Indo-Pacific Connections The experts draw critical parallels for Indo-Pacific allies who depend on international law and the rules-based order. Countries like Japan, the Philippines, and Australia may question US commitment to multilateral norms, while adversaries like China could exploit the precedent to justify their own unilateral actions. Brazil and other regional powers are already diversifying partnerships with China and BRICS nations, concerned about unpredictable US interventionism and trade policy. What Comes Next? With Maduro’s vice president maintaining control in Caracas and the regime apparatus intact, the guests outline scenarios ranging from peaceful opposition transition to Libya-style state collapse. They emphasize Venezuela’s complexity: three decades of corruption, transnational criminal organizations, and a population unfamiliar with democracy. Best-case scenarios require international cooperation and long-term US commitment - both uncertain given the operation’s unilateral nature. The episode concludes with sobering assessments about narrative control, regional stability, and whether this operation serves as prologue to regime change efforts in Cuba and Nicaragua. 👉 Follow Rob Burrell on his web site, robertburrell.com [http://robertburrell.com], or at his Substack [https://robertburrell.substack.com/] 👉 Follow Mike Burgoyne on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/miburgoyne/] 👉 Follow the podcast on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn, [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/] or Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/]

Why Should We Care About Taiwan’s Critical Energy Vulnerability? | with Craig Singleton

In Episode 121, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Craig Singleton, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and former US diplomat, to examine Taiwan’s critical energy vulnerability and China’s gray zone coercion strategies. Singleton, co-author of FDD’s recent report “Maritime Protection of Taiwan’s Energy Vulnerability,” reveals how Taiwan’s mere 10-day supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) creates an Achilles heel Beijing could exploit without firing a shot - and why semiconductor supply chains, global economies, and US deterrence strategy all hang in the balance. Taiwan’s Energy Crisis: 10 Days to Disaster Taiwan imports 90% of its energy, with over half arriving by sea as LNG from suppliers who may be susceptible to PRC coercion. Through extensive war gaming featuring participants from Taiwan’s National Security Council, Japan, Australia and former Trump administration officials including Matt Pottinger, Singleton’s team discovered Taiwan would face “Sophie’s Choice” dilemmas within two weeks of a Chinese quarantine. The scenario revealed that energy companies would be pressured to comply with new and onerous requirements, while diplomatic pressure to reduce just one LNG shipment per week could trigger cascading blackouts and force Taiwan to choose between powering hospitals or semiconductor fabrication plants. Quarantine vs. Blockade: The Gray Zone Advantage Singleton explains the critical distinction between blockades - which carry international legal consequences and can activate UN responses - and quarantines, which exist in “squishy” legal territory that China deliberately exploits. During war gaming, Singleton playing Xi Jinping accomplished every objective without triggering US red lines by characterizing aggressive actions as “safety inspections” and “counter-piracy operations,” language already familiar from South China Sea operations. This asymmetric approach keeps American responses in “off” mode while systematically degrading Taiwan’s resilience through political warfare and disinformation campaigns. Semiconductor Leverage and Allied Response When Taiwan’s war game participants announced they would cut power to TSMC to force international intervention, it represented a mic-drop moment - Taiwan exercising agency by threatening global semiconductor supply chains. The scenario exposed uncomfortable truths about allied commitment, with Japan able to weather the crisis due to substantial LNG reserves, while Australia’s involvement remained uncertain despite AUKUS commitments. Singleton argues classic deterrence models map poorly onto gray zone operations, and reestablishing deterrence after allowing coercion to proceed requires “outsized” responses that current political will may not support. Solutions: From LNG Diversification to Nuclear Reactors Singleton advocates for increased US LNG exports to Taiwan, enhanced energy storage through hardened mountain facilities and floating terminals, and reconsideration of small modular reactors (SMRs) at key government and military sites - potentially creating a deterrent effect against Chinese targeting due to nuclear fallout risks. The 2025 National Defense Authorization Act’s increase from $300 million to $1 billion in foreign military financing for Taiwan represents progress, but energy resilience remains the critical vulnerability China will exploit. 👉 Follow Craig Singleton at the FDD [https://www.fdd.org/team/craig-singleton/] or on X at @CraigMSingleton [https://x.com/CraigMSingleton] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, [https://bowergroupasia.com/]a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Why Should We Care About What Happened in the Indo-Pacific in 2025? | Special Year-End Episode

In this special year-end edition, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso reflect on a transformative 2025 in the Indo-Pacific, examining the dramatic shift from conventional diplomacy to hard power politics under the Trump 2.0 administration. The episode provides a comprehensive review of the podcast’s most impactful conversations, from national government leaders to topical experts, while analyzing the year’s major geopolitical developments. Trump 2.0 and the Hard Power Pivot Jim and Ray discuss how the year began with U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel’s appearance, marking the podcast’s first sitting ambassador interview. Following President Trump’s January inauguration, 2025 witnessed a fundamental reorientation of American Indo-Pacific policy away from soft power initiatives toward military deterrence and economic leverage through tariffs. They discuss how this approach disrupted established norms and international agreements, with potential Supreme Court challenges to executive power looming in 2026. China’s Gray Zone and Political Warfare Campaigns Gray zone and political warfare emerged as a dominant theme, with a topical episode featuring the RAND Corporation’s Todd Helmus becoming the year’s most downloaded audio content. The hosts recall what they learned about China’s comprehensive political warfare strategy, which treats peacetime as a mere continuation of conflict through non-military means. Notable coverage included the extraordinary incident where two Chinese Coast Guard vessels collided near Scarborough Shoal, producing the year’s top video episode as Beijing’s propagandists struggled for four days to craft a narrative blaming the Philippines for a setback they couldn’t admit to. Regional Flashpoints and Conflicts The podcast provided critical context for unexpected conflicts, including the India-Pakistan and Thailand-Cambodia border wars. These complex, multi-generational disputes were unpacked by regional experts like Indian strategic analyst Nitin Gokhale and former Cambodian Ambassador Pou Sothirak. The Trump-Modi Relationship Unravels What began as a seemingly stable partnership deteriorated rapidly in 2025, with Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin providing blunt analysis of an unexpectedly cooling U.S.-India relationship. The Trump administration’s surprising pivot toward Pakistan represented a stunning reversal from Trump 1.0 policies, raising questions about Quad’s future effectiveness and regional security cooperation. Transnational Crime and Human Trafficking Investigative reporting by the Washington Post’s Sue-Lin Wong exposed the exponential expansion and brutal reality of scam compounds across Myanmar, Cambodia and the Philippines, where human trafficking victims are forced into “pig-butchering” and cryptocurrency fraud operations. We also featured Washington Post reporter Rebecca Tan discussing the methamphetamine crisis fueled by Chinese precursor chemicals flowing through lawless Myanmar territories into markets across Asia. Historic Interviews and Podcast Milestones 2025 brought unprecedented access, including interviews with Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro and the podcast’s first head-of-state guest, Palau’s President Surangel Whipps Jr. Documentary filmmaker Baby Ruth Villarama also came on to discuss Beijing’s failed attempt to suppress her West Philippine Sea documentary, while North Korean defector Timothy Cho shared his harrowing escape story. The hosts also recall the podcast’s experiments with live broadcasts covering Australia’s election results and China-Japan tensions. 2026 Outlook Monthly listenership quadrupled in 2025, establishing the podcast as the leading Indo-Pacific affairs platform. As 2026 approaches, the hosts anticipate continued geopolitical turbulence, Supreme Court tariff decisions and evolving great power competition dynamics across the region.

Why Should We Care About the Health of the US-Australia Alliance? | with Justin Bassi

In Ep. 119, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Justin Bassi, Executive Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), to assess the health of the US-Australia alliance as it approaches its 75th anniversary in 2026. Bassi, a former National Security Advisor to the Australian Prime Minister, argues that while the institutional foundation of the alliance remains robust, we are living in the “most dangerous times since the end of World War II” - a reality that demands confidence, courage, and a doubling down on partnerships to counter the rising influence of China and Russia. Bassi frames the current geopolitical landscape as more precarious than the Cold War, driven by adversaries who believe the US-led order is in decline. He emphasizes that the alliance is not just a legacy of the past but a critical necessity for the future. For Australia, the “fear of abandonment” - a historical anxiety about great power withdrawal - remains a potent strategic driver. The response, Bassi argues, must be to demonstrate that the US and its allies can still compete, even dominate, and provide stability in the region. The hosts and Bassi discuss the recently concluded Australia-US Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN). While the fact that the meeting occurred during a chaotic year - marked by US political transitions and Australian elections - is a success in itself, Bassi notes a potential “missed opportunity.” For the first time in recent memory, the meeting concluded without a joint press conference or a formal joint statement, replaced only by a fact sheet. Bassi explores whether this break in precedent signals mere logistical hurdles or deeper misalignments on specific policy nuances, particularly regarding China. Despite questions around messaging, the alliance is delivering substance. Bassi champions the value of increased US force posture initiatives in Australia, arguing that a larger American footprint is a net positive for regional stability. The trio also discuss the “implementation phase” of AUKUS, noting that the partnership has achieved bipartisanship across the US, UK, and Australia despite leadership changes in all three nations. Bassi describes AUKUS not as a short-term deal but as a “generational, hopefully forever” commitment that transcends individual administrations. Reflecting on the return of Donald Trump to the US presidency, the group compares the current dynamic to the friction of the Trump 1.0 era, during which they all served in government roles together in Australia. Bassi contends that the alliance is institutionally “stronger than any government of the day.” He points to the smooth landing of recent AUKUS and critical minerals agreements as evidence that the ecosystem of defense and intelligence cooperation continues to thrive, regardless of leader-to-leader personalities. 👉 In addition to his current role as Executive Director of ASPI, Justin Bassi previously served as the National Security Advisor to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and as Chief of Staff to Foreign Minister Marise Payne. Follow him on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-bassi-02330a28a/] or on X at @BassiJustin [https://x.com/BassiJustin] 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/] or on Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/]