Weighing The Risks

Chris Davis of Davis Funds - What To Think And Do With Market Volatility

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Chris Davis, Chairman and Portfolio Manager at Davis Funds. Chris C. Davis joined Davis Advisors in 1989. He has more than 37 years experience in investment management and securities research. Mr. Davis is a Portfolio Manager for the Davis Large Cap and Financial Portfolios. He is a member of the research team for other Portfolios. Mr. Davis received his M.A. from the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. Key Takeaways * [04:16] - Chris’ professional background and more on his work at Davis’ Advisors * [08:03] - How does Chris define risk and how does he think advisors and investors should think about it? * [11:30] - Given the backdrop of enhanced volatility, how should investors weigh and think about the headlines versus the fundamentals of a company? * [18:27] - What are some key indicators that Chris monitors for the health of the financial sector, as well as the broader economy? Also, the yield curve recently inverted. Is that a warning sign or another false signal? * [24:16] - Might cryptocurrencies and stable coins disrupt credit card companies and how they generate fees? * [34:47] - What does Chris think is in store for the financial sector for the rest of the year, as well as the years ahead? * [39:55] - Does Chris have any advice that he thinks advisors and investors should really think about right now? * [47:01] - Base case economic outlook and how probable Chris thinks this is * [50:35] - Bad case economic outlook and how probable Chris thinks this is * [55:43] - Good case economic outlook and how probable Chris thinks this is * [62:37] - Are there any other risks that Chris thinks investors and advisors should be considering right now? * [66:45] - Does Chris have a book recommendation for this particular time in the markets and economy?  Quotes [09:33] ~ “If I was to put it purely in financial terms, to me risk is the permanent loss of purchasing power over the contemplated investment time horizon. So, it’s that permanent, and substantial, loss of capital. We measure that not just in terms of the dollar amount that we start with, but the purchasing power of that. That’s not been a relevant distinction in the last twenty or thirty years of low inflation, but I came of age in the 70s where your purchasing power might have been degrading 13-15% a year. So, we really think about that idea of the degradation of purchasing power, overtime, as really sort of the central tenant when we make an investment decision…” ~ Chris Davis [https://www.linkedin.com/company/davis-advisors/] [33:41] ~ “I think this march of technology in financial services is super exciting. My prediction in the short-term, and I’ll say short to mid-term - in the next five years, is that it makes the largest companies more valuable and more profitable. It increases scale advantages, which didn’t exist in financial services for most of the last fifty years, there’s real scale advantages now…longer term I think there may be bigger risk [though].” ~ Chris Davis [https://www.linkedin.com/company/davis-advisors/] Links * Davis Advisors on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/davis-advisors/] * “Gotta Serve Somebody” (Cover) - Muscle Shoals Fundraiser [https://open.spotify.com/track/5XWDYp3F96npz1cxU4vH7o?si=1ce74c43c2844edf] * Davis Funds [https://davisfunds.com/] Connect with Us * Meet Rusty Vanneman, Orion’s Chief Investment Officer [https://orion.com/rusty-vanneman] * Check Out All of Orion’s Podcasts [https://orion.com/resources-search?resource_type=podcasts] * Power Your Growth with Orion [https://orion.com/] Disclosure(s) Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”) The CFA® is a globally respected, graduate-level investment credential established in 1962 and awarded by CFA Institute — the largest global association of investment professionals. To learn more about the CFA charter, visit www.cfainstitute.org [http://www.cfainstitute.org].  Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use. Compliance Code: 1200-R-25114

Grant Engelbart of Carson Group - Bro Bubble Popping?

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Grant Engelbart, Vice President, Investment Strategist at Carson Group. Grant Engelbart serves as Vice President, Investment Strategist for Carson Group. In this role, Grant is part of the team responsible for the management of the Carson Investment platform, In-house Carson model portfolios, and contribution to the overall asset allocation viewpoints of the investment team. Before joining Carson, Grant was the Deputy CIO of ETFs and SMAs at Brinker Capital Investments (part of Orion Advisor Solutions). At Brinker, Grant was part of the discretionary investment team responsible for many assets across investment vehicles, and managed accounts ranging from individual 401ks to large university endowments. Prior to joining Brinker Capital Investments, Grant held positions at CLS Investments (which has since rebranded to Brinker Capital Investments), TD Ameritrade, and State Street Corporation. Grant received his Bachelor of Science in finance from the University of Nebraska at Lincoln. He is a CFA® Charter holder, holds the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) designation, DACFP Certificate in Blockchain and Digital Assets, Candriam Certificate in Sustainable and Responsible Investing and Series 65 registration. He is a member of the CFA® Society of Nebraska and the CAIA Chicago chapter. He has contributed to numerous publications and is an active contributor to commentary related to the ETF industry. Grant has three young children with his wife Jessica. He’s passionate about any University of Nebraska sports team, golf, basketball and most outside activities. He is actively involved in his local church and other Omaha-based organizations. Grant Engelbart is not registered with Cetera Advisor Networks LLC. Key Takeaways * [03:00] - Grant’s professional background and more on his current role at Carson Group * [06:07] - Many of the “Bro Bubble” members are meaningfully off their highs. Why has sentiment shifted so drastically in just one quarter? Are these meme stocks a pump and dumb type scheme fueled by the second coming of Wall Street Bets? * [07:50] - Will the “Bro Bubble” popping kick off a broader market shift or is it just an example of the air coming out of some of the bad momentum names? * [09:25] - Does Grant think the bubble did pop for the “Bro Bubble” names or did it just lose a little layer? Could these potentially re-inflate and, if so, what are the catalysts needed for this re-inflation to occur? * [11:20] - What are some of the catalysts encouraging the outflow from the “Bro Bubble” stocks into international markets and might this trend continue? * [13:47] - How should advisors think about positioning their portfolios in light of the Trump administration's commitment to sweeping policy changes? * [18:37] - Base case market scenario, it’s impacts on the Bro Bubble and how probable Grant thinks this outcome is * [20:57] - Bad case market scenario, it’s impacts on the Bro Bubble and how probable Grant thinks this outcome is * [23:07] - Good case market scenario, it’s impacts on the Bro Bubble and how probable Grant thinks this outcome is * [25:32] - Are there any other risks our listeners should be considering?  Quotes [09:29] ~ “At a certain point because of Deepseek, which is one the early catalysts for this  in some ways, the vulnerability to AI names, which not all these Bro Bubble names are not AI plays per se, but there's involvement there. Then the relationship with the Trump White House, and whatever was happening post election for these names, I think both of those have created an environment where you can’t price Palantir at 240x earnings….I wouldn’t say [there has been]...a complete, utter, ridiculous pop, but there’s an adjustment to a more realistic expectation for these companies going forward. ” ~ Grant Engelbart [https://www.linkedin.com/in/grant-engelbart-cfa-25278825/] [12:22] ~ “The trend reversal in international stocks is really important, emerging markets is part of that as well, and we have brought our emerging market and international stock weights back to neutral, it was underweight for a period of time, mostly due to the dollar strength. They have potentially fiscal tailwinds behind them now, inflation is in a better place in many cases and then there’s a valuation tailwind for international stocks in a big way as well, so…that’s definitely an area to keep, at a minimum, at neutral weight in your portfolios.” ~ Grant Engelbart [https://www.linkedin.com/in/grant-engelbart-cfa-25278825/] Links * Grant Engelbart on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/grant-engelbart-cfa-25278825/] * Carson Group [https://www.carsonwealth.com/] * Economic Outlook [https://www.carsongroup.com/economic-outlook/] * Insights [https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/] * “Sirius” by The Alan Parsons Project [https://open.spotify.com/track/0hSs4vOZo1OkRiAOoLafrT?si=0fead349ea434cd7] Connect with Us * Meet Rusty Vanneman, Orion’s Chief Investment Officer [https://orion.com/rusty-vanneman] * Check Out All of Orion’s Podcasts [https://orion.com/resources-search?resource_type=podcasts] * Power Your Growth with Orion [https://orion.com/] Disclosure(s) Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”) The CFA® is a globally respected, graduate-level investment credential established in 1962 and awarded by CFA Institute — the largest global association of investment professionals. To learn more about the CFA charter, visit www.cfainstitute.org [http://www.cfainstitute.org].  Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use. Compliance Code: 0950-R-25091

Dan Davidowitz of Polen Capital - Are There Bubbles in the Stock Market?

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Dan Davidowitz, lead Portfolio Manager of Polen Capital's Focus Growth strategy. Dan is lead Portfolio Manager of Polen Capital's Focus Growth strategy. Prior to joining Polen Capital in 2005, Dan spent five years as Vice President and Research Analyst at Osprey Partners Investment Management. Previously, Dan spent one year as a Research Analyst at Value Line, Inc. and five years in the health care sector, holding various analytical positions at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center. Dan received a B.S. with high honors in Public Health from Rutgers University and an M.B.A. from the City University of New York, Baruch College Zicklin School of Business. Dan is a CFA® charterholder and a member of the CFA Institute and the CFA Society of South Florida. Key Takeaways * [02:23] - Dan’s professional background and more on his current role at Pollen Capital * [04:57] - How does Dan define risk and how does he think that advisors and investors should think about it? * [06:14] - What risks keep Dan up at night and what guardrails, and indicators, does he keep an eye on as signals to protect against a bad market environment? * [08:53] - What does Dan think about earnings growth for companies going into 2026 and beyond? Would an earnings growth contraction, or just deceleration, hurt the higher flying stocks? * [11:51] - Have any of the recent developments in AI, and large language models, shifted Polen’s investment thesis in the space? * [16:34] - Where is Dan seeing opportunities abroad and what does he think of China? * [18:55] - How does Polen’s quality tilt flavor the opportunities that Dan sees the market presenting? What pockets of the market are getting him really excited at the moment? * [22:37] - Base case market scenario and how probable Dan thinks this is * [24:10] - Bad case market scenario and how probable Dan thinks this is * [27:39] - Good case market scenario and how probable Dan thinks this is * [32:23] - Are there any other risks that Dan thinks our listeners should be considering?  Quotes [09:27] ~ “What’s extraordinarily consistent about corporate America’s earnings growth, is overtime it does tend to kind of smooth out to around 6% or 7% earnings growth through cycles…for the S&P500, and then you put dividends on top of that, and that’s how you get the return of the S&P500 overtime. Our portfolio is not too much different than that, except the levers are a little bit different. So, our companies are growth companies, they don’t really pay out a lot of dividends, so we don’t get much of our returns from dividends, if at all. But, the earnings growth of our portfolio is significantly faster.” ~ Dan Davidowitz [https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-davidowitz-ab922a2/] [14:18] ~ “Every time there’s been a big technological transformation, it starts with hardware and then you have services and applications built on top of that hardware that eventually become the real value creating stuff…like the Amazons and Googles that were built on the broadband internet, we’re going to have something similar with generative AI. You’re going to have native Gen AI businesses, and also generative AI add-ons to existing businesses that are going to be value creative. Polen Capital is looking more toward that later group. We want to be part of the services and applications that have long-term, durable recurring revenue that will last a long time…but we are not looking to play the cyclical hardware so to speak.” ~ Dan Davidowitz [https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-davidowitz-ab922a2/] Links * Dan Davidowitz on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-davidowitz-ab922a2/] * Polen Capital [https://www.polencapital.com/] * “Spoonman” by Soundgarden [https://open.spotify.com/track/1jMaB19DiVR8OihLSuYFOt?si=c6137c94305c46df] Connect with Us * Meet Rusty Vanneman, Orion’s Chief Investment Officer [https://orion.com/rusty-vanneman] * Check Out All of Orion’s Podcasts [https://orion.com/resources-search?resource_type=podcasts] * Power Your Growth with Orion [https://orion.com/] Disclosure(s) Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”) The CFA® is a globally respected, graduate-level investment credential established in 1962 and awarded by CFA Institute — the largest global association of investment professionals. To learn more about the CFA charter, visit www.cfainstitute.org [http://www.cfainstitute.org].  Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use. Compliance Code: 0564-R-25058

Sam Rines of WisdomTree - Cyber Risks!

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Sam Rines, Macro Strategist at WisdomTree. Samuel Rines is a Macro Strategist at WisdomTree, where he extends the firm's custom model portfolio management capabilities. Before joining WisdomTree in 2024, he was the Managing Director at CORBU, LLC, leading the PolyMacro advisory product. With over a decade of experience in economics and finance, Samuel has held significant roles such as Chief Economist at Avalon Investment & Advisory and Economist and Portfolio Manager at Chilton Capital Management LLC. He is also the author of "After Normal: Making Sense of the Global Economy," and holds a Master’s degree in Economics from the UNH Peter T. Paul College of Business and Economics, as well as having studied Economics at the University of Oxford. Key Takeaways * [03:01] - Sam’s professional background and more on his current role at WisdomTree * [04:39] - How does Sam define risk and how does he think advisors and investors should think about it? * [06:08] - Should we be most concerned about the frequency or severity of cyber attacks, or some combination of the two? How do they affect the global economy and market stability over all? * [09:18] - Why do the markets often seem to shrug off seemingly massive cyber attacks (e.g. the Equifax breach)? Would it take a major attack on financial institutions to impact the broader stock market? * [11:12] - Are there any big trends in cyber security that could affect future risks, as well as investment in this industry going forward? * [12:27] - In the cyber security space, what are some potential technological breakthroughs or disruptions that might stand out? * [14:37] - Is investing in cybersecurity stocks an effective hedge against cybersecurity risks? * [17:17] - Base case market scenario for cybersecurity and how probable Sam thinks this is * [19:03] - Bad case market scenario for cybersecurity and how probable Sam thinks this is * [20:58] - Good case market scenario for cybersecurity and how probable Sam thinks this is * [22:23] - What other geopolitical risks does Sam think listeners should be thinking about and considering? Also, learn more about the geopolitical, risk-aware portfolios his team has built * [27:23] - How would Sam compare and contrast their three model portfolios?  Quotes [04:39] ~ “I define risk as what is the probability of being wrong and how does that effect my portfolio vis-a-vis whatever your benchmark you might have, whether it’s a Nasdaq type benchmark, whether it’s an S&P 500 benchmark…It’s…what’s the downside risk to either not having something in the portfolio or putting it into the portfolio. ” ~ Sam Rines [https://www.linkedin.com/in/samuelerines/] [07:55] ~ “Cloudflare, and the shutdown that we had for basically half a day or a day…what’s interesting about that is it wasn’t even a hack, right? It was just an update that went wrong, and I think that was really more of a warning to people that if you have a significant hack that affects something that’s a base layer of US, and to a bit of an extent, Global technology, you could have very significant economic effects very quickly across parts of the economy that people probably didn’t think were vulnerable to a cyber attack.” ~ Sam Rines [https://www.linkedin.com/in/samuelerines/] Links * Sam Rines on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/samuelerines/] * WisdomTree [https://www.wisdomtree.com/] * “We Didn’t Start the Fire” by Billy Joel [https://open.spotify.com/track/3Cx4yrFaX8CeHwBMReOWXI?si=f3ee9373f51a4600] Connect with Us * Meet Rusty Vanneman, Orion’s Chief Investment Officer [https://orion.com/rusty-vanneman] * Check Out All of Orion’s Podcasts [https://orion.com/resources-search?resource_type=podcasts] * Power Your Growth with Orion [https://orion.com/] Disclosure(s) Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”) The CFA® is a globally respected, graduate-level investment credential established in 1962 and awarded by CFA Institute — the largest global association of investment professionals. To learn more about the CFA charter, visit www.cfainstitute.org [http://www.cfainstitute.org].  Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use. Compliance Code: 0316-R-25031

Corey Hoffstein of Newfound Research - Surging Growth In ETFs: A Sign of A Market Bubble, or Just The New Preferred Vehicle for Investors?

This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Corey Hoffstein, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer at Newfound Research. Newfound Research LLC is a quantitative investment and research firm dedicated to helping investors pro-actively navigate the risks of investing through thought leadership and investment acumen. At Newfound, Corey is responsible for portfolio management, investment research, strategy development and communication of the firm’s views to clients. Corey holds a Master of Science in Computational Finance from Carnegie Mellon University and a Bachelor of Science in Computer Science, cum laude, from Cornell University. * [03:35] - Corey’s professional background and what led him to his current role? * [05:12] - How does Corey define risk and how does he think advisors and investors should think about it? * [07:51] - Has Corey ever seen someone try to measure “human capital risk?” * [09:53] - How would Corey define a bubble, and what is a bubble more broadly? * [11:30] - Does the overall growth in ETF assets under management indicate a stock market bubble or an ETF vehicle bubble? If not, are there other indications we could be in a stock market bubble right now? * [19:58] - Is the recent  popularity of  actively managed ETFs a sign that active management might finally have its day in the sun again? * [27:33] - What is return stacking and what are its potential benefits, and risks, for investors? * [34:58] - How can advisors and investors diversify their investment process and timing, in addition to just the assets themselves? * [43:33] - Base case economic scenario and how probably Corey thinks this scenario is * [50:22] - Bad case economic scenario and how probably Corey thinks this scenario is * [53:00] - Good case economic scenario and how probably Corey thinks this scenario is * [58:17] - What does Corey see for the ETF industry and quant investing in its evolution in the coming years, especially in conjunction with AI?  Quotes [05:25] ~ “In the world of finance, where I have ultimately come down on risk, is: it’s not volatility, it’s not drawdown [and] it’s not these other potential statistical measures. I think the risk that’s most relevant to most investors, generically, is just the risk of meeting their financial goals. ” ~ Corey Hoffstein [https://www.linkedin.com/in/coreyhoffstein/] [09:53] ~ “I think my tongue-in-cheek answer to this would be, a bubble is something we all collectively regret investing in afterwards. In real time, a better answer would just be, [a bubble is] when price far exceeds fundamentals and/or the utility of something.” ~ Corey Hoffstein [https://www.linkedin.com/in/coreyhoffstein/] Links * Corey Hoffstein on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/coreyhoffstein/] * Newfound Research [https://www.thinknewfound.com/] * “Money in the Way” by 2 Chainz [https://docs.google.com/document/d/1N5LcqQAs6IBC1S9DaAEEeT9UADUqxUoUPiFa_XbIK_4/edit?usp=sharing] Connect with Us * Meet Rusty Vanneman, Orion’s Chief Investment Officer [https://orion.com/rusty-vanneman] * Check Out All of Orion’s Podcasts [https://orion.com/resources-search?resource_type=podcasts] * Power Your Growth with Orion [https://orion.com/] Disclosure(s) - Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”) The CFA® is a globally respected, graduate-level investment credential established in 1962 and awarded by CFA Institute — the largest global association of investment professionals. To learn more about the CFA charter, visit www.cfainstitute.org [http://www.cfainstitute.org].  Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use. Compliance Code: 3235-OPS-12/18/2024