AI and States, Taxing Labor vs. Capital, and a Looming Financial Disaster?

"American Women Are Not Okay."

In the 1950s and 1960s, planners weren’t thinking of women when they mapped out mass transit systems. They planned for the (mostly male) commuter patterns of the time – a straight shot from the suburbs to downtown and then back again. You can see this pattern lingering across the country, including in Washington, D.C. [https://www.wmata.com/content/dam/wmata-com/maps/system-map-rail.pdf] As for the women? Presumably they’d be staying at home – but even if they weren’t doing paid work, they weren’t literally staying at home. Instead, they were making the trips associated with care work – taking a child to the dentist and then back to school, stopping at the grocery store, accompanying a parent on a trip to the doctor. Caroline Criado Perez wrote about this “trip chaining” in her must-read 2019 book Invisible Women [https://carolinecriadoperez.com/book/invisible-women/], highlighting research that women do far more of it than men. It's not just transit. Much of our physical and policy infrastructure was originally built for a life most women weren't living then and aren't living now. How we can build better support systems for women is the subject of our latest episode: an interview with my friend and former Presidential Innovation Fellow, Abby Nydam. Abby is the founder of Sam [https://wearesam.co/], a platform to connect women with human support to help them navigate life’s challenges from eldercare, grief, career transitions, and beyond. (Full disclosure: I’m advising Sam.) We talk about why this is a difficult moment for many women, particularly those between 35-55 years old. On average, women today are more educated and earn more than their mothers. But they face a moment of compounding uncertainty [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/07/opinion/birthrate-kids-parents-demographics-future.html] – from rising prices and a turbulent labor market to “sandwich generation” caregiving responsibilities and menopause hitting at peak working years. Our conversation covers significant ground – from the cultural signals and economics that prevent women from taking the time to get the support they need to how men are experiencing this moment and how they can support the women in their lives. And then, we close with what state and local leaders can do. Abby’s short answer for the one action state and local leaders can take: “Stop closing our libraries.” Libraries and other “third places” where a community gathers – parks, community centers, neighborhood cafes – provide a safe space where an elderly parent can meet friends, where a kid study, where women can find a network. Most communities already have these. Keeping them open, in good repair, and well-programmed is a relatively small step policymakers can take while tackling bigger challenges – like more affordable childcare, housing, and paid leave. But the big things need to happen too – and urgently. With compounding failures [https://www.americanprogress.org/article/the-trump-administrations-changes-to-the-child-care-and-development-fund-would-strip-families-of-thousands-of-dollars-in-potential-child-care-savings/] at the federal level, some cities and states like New Mexico [https://www.governor.state.nm.us/2026/03/10/governor-lujan-grisham-signs-nations-first-universal-child-care-law-new-mexico-is-a-national-model-for-early-childhood-care-and-education/], Virginia [https://www.vec.virginia.gov/news/first-south-virginia-enacts-paid-family-medical-leave], and New York City [https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/2026-prek-3k-offers/] have taken steps in recent months towards better support systems – even if the policies aren’t always as expansive as they could be. Recently, several speakers at policy events I’ve attended have started with a caveat – something along the lines of saying, “This would be great to do, but of course there won’t be new money.” If we can find the money [https://time.com/article/2026/03/16/what-us-spending-on-the-war-in-iran-could-fund-instead/] for war in Iran or tax breaks for the wealthy, we can find it for childcare, housing, and healthcare. It’s a policy choice leaders need to make. Warmly, Joanna Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/3mtATdDHJppQgvGHYUdmRL] ┃Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/draft-deliberative-podcast/id1894253551]┃Pocket Casts [https://pca.st/rdw22hi3] Video Editing: Olivia Bortner This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joannamikulski.substack.com [https://joannamikulski.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

The Unexpected Ways AI Might Be Shaping Our Brains

The five-year-olds could point northeast without blinking. Lera Boroditsky [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKK7wGAYP6k], now a professor of cognitive science at UC San Diego, could not. Boroditsky studies how language shapes thought. Years ago, she spent time with the Pormpuraaw, an indigenous community in Cape York, Australia. Their language doesn’t use words like “left” or “right” to navigate, but instead only cardinal directions like north, south, east, and west. They say “hello” by asking “What direction are you traveling?” Boroditsky was lost – literally. She couldn’t orient herself. Until one day, she realized that a new “module” had opened in her mind: a bird’s-eye view of the landscape, her own location marked with a red dot. She sheepishly mentioned this to someone in the community. The response: “Well, of course. How else would you do it?” This story – which I first heard over a decade ago – serves as a jumping off point for our latest podcast episode – a discussion about how AI could shape our brains (whether we like it or not) and what policymakers can do about it. It has stuck with me for two reasons. The first is envy. I’ve never had a good sense of direction. The day after I got my driver’s license, I asked my mom how to get to the local library – a location I’d been driven to hundreds of times. The only navigation module I have is Google Maps, which I use to get nearly everywhere. The second reason is that this story is a prime example of how our brains can learn to do what we demand of them, whether through language or other factors. Having GPS at the ready has likely saved me – and billions more people – collectively trillions of hours of time. Humans have long shifted our cognitive capabilities based on the tools available to us. Socrates [https://www.historyofinformation.com/detail.php?id=3439] argued that writing would weaken memory and reduce the need for face-to-face engagement. Perhaps writing did weaken memory – though writing something by hand [https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11943480/] now might help you remember it – but it also provided us with a way to capture, preserve, and share knowledge, ideas, and information, leaving mental capacity for higher-order tasks. But outsourcing a cognitive function to a machine or tool comes with tradeoffs – and not necessarily the ones you anticipate. Recently, the neuroscientist Vivienne Ming [https://www.linkedin.com/posts/vivienneming_were-heading-for-an-ai-fueled-dementia-activity-7448417948995842049-POfa?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAACO8gkBz_E5_WSi83aStnby9wdXivlzaBA] – one of my favorite thinkers on AI – highlighted research showing that building a strong internal navigation system – or spatial memory – builds the hippocampus and provides protection against dementia and Alzheimer’s. London’s cab drivers – who famously need to demonstrate their ability to navigate unaided through the entire city – have lower rates [https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2025/05/harvard-taxi-drivers-brain-health-dementia] of both afflictions than similar populations. Ming cited this research to warn about how the use of AI could rewire our brains. LLMs allow us to “offload” far more cognitive functions than GPS or other digital tools to date – everything from research, synthesis, writing, coding, analysis, and beyond. What impact will they have on our cognitive abilities – and by extension, our health, our relationships, and our communities at large? We don’t yet know. Some research shows [https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20260505-how-to-use-ai-without-turning-your-brain-to-mush] that over-reliance on LLMs can dull creativity, weaken critical thinking and memory, and shorten our attention spans. However, the impact may largely depend on how the technology is used [https://drphilippahardman.substack.com/p/the-cognitive-offloading-paradox] – and most of us are probably not using the technology in a way that will allow us to get the benefits. But our lack of knowledge and uncertainty in the evidence isn’t stopping many institutions, including educational institutions [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/05/us/usc-ai-200-million-donation.html], from going all in on the technology. AI has rightly brought significant excitement about its possibilities to cure disease, find new treatments, and support better patient care. We’ve all just gone through a decade-long uncontrolled experiment with smartphones and social media. We’ve seen how the experiments with technology in the classroom, in particular, have gone awry. While given the hype and the potential impact, I understand why many organizations are jumping to adopt AI. But this is no time for policymakers to succumb to FOMO. We’ll do more to address smart policy responses in the weeks and months to come – and we’d love comments and links with your ideas. How do you think AI is impacting your brain (for better or worse)? What are your strategies for dealing with it – and how do you hope your governor, mayor, and others will respond? Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/3mtATdDHJppQgvGHYUdmRL] ┃Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/draft-deliberative-podcast/id1894253551]┃Pocket Casts [https://pca.st/rdw22hi3] This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joannamikulski.substack.com [https://joannamikulski.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

When Wall Street Bets With Public Money

On September 29, 2008, I sat stunned in front of the television. The House of Representatives had failed to pass a proposed $700 billion bank bailout plan. The Dow was dropping, second by second, finally landing nearly 778 points below where it had started that morning. Nearly 18 years later, that day — and everything that happened in response — still reverberates in our politics. In recent weeks, turmoil in the private credit markets has had echoes of 2008. To help us better understand what’s happening — and just how worried we should be — Cyrus and I invited Michael Hardaway, a former advisor to President Obama and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, to join the podcast. The private credit market emerged directly from the 2008 financial crisis — an unintended consequence of well-intentioned regulation. The Dodd-Frank Act required banks to hold more capital against risky loans, so banks stopped lending to risky borrowers. That’s where private credit — part of the “shadow banking” sector — stepped in. Private credit funds run by firms like Apollo, Blackstone, and Ares have grown roughly tenfold since 2009, now totaling nearly $3 trillion globally. Chasing higher yields, they’ve lent to borrowers that banks won't touch, with almost no public oversight. Now, AI is disrupting the software and tech companies these funds lent heavily to, triggering the market's first real liquidity crunch. As Michael notes in the podcast, this crunch is not likely to lead to a 2008 redux — at least not yet. Private credit makes up a comparatively small share of the overall market. But the challenges highlight bigger questions about how financial markets operate — and why state and local leaders should be paying attention. The public pension funds of teachers, firefighters, and state employees are sitting inside the private credit market — and other markets like venture capital that are arguably even less transparent. Furthermore, Trump signed an executive order in 2025 directing federal agencies to clear the path for 401(k) holders to invest in private credit and other alternative assets — potentially injecting up to $13 trillion into this market and exposing retail investors who lack the financial literacy to evaluate these risks. As someone who’s dived deeply into creative ways to fund regional economic development strategies, I understand the value of financial innovation — up to a point. I often wish that more of the brainpower used to find new ways to make already wealthy people more money was dedicated to other problems — like fixing healthcare or climate change. That’s a topic for another podcast (or three). But for now, it’s clear: When public money is on the line, “trust us” isn’t good enough. Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/episode/63NTIsnp5SZOUqMsACPwLQ?si=tNLQifehTsamBCChxdD9Lg] ┃Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/draft-deliberative-podcast/id1894253551]┃Pocket Casts [https://pca.st/rdw22hi3] Video editing: Olivia Bortner This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joannamikulski.substack.com [https://joannamikulski.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

AI and States, Taxing Labor vs. Capital, and a Looming Financial Disaster?

Welcome to the official launch of the Draft/Deliberative podcast! We have a name (ok, the same one — but we’re sticking with it), three wide-ranging topics, and our first guest(!) coming later this week to discuss what’s happening in the private credit market and the implications. AI and the Labor Market: What States Can Do Now Last week brought another breaking development about the rapid progress of AI. Anthropic announced that its Mythos model [https://theconversation.com/claude-mythos-and-project-glasswing-why-an-ai-superhacker-has-the-tech-world-on-alert-280374] is so powerful — and such a potential security threat — that the company is not releasing it to the public. Experts were quick to point out that it’s hard to parse the extent to which what we’re hearing about Mythos is real vs. a publicity stunt. But the news has heightened concerns about how quickly AI could transform the labor market. OpenAI entered the debate with its take on industrial policy in the AI age in a report [https://openai.com/index/industrial-policy-for-the-intelligence-age/] that we found both interesting and frustrating. We wanted to spend some time breaking through the noise and focusing on what states can actually do right now to prepare for AI’s potential impacts. We may not be prepared to respond to a major labor market disruption driven by AI or otherwise, but states can take action by focusing on what we already know are best practices for strong workforce policies. We talked through where to focus: your education system (that’s where the money and leverage really are), labor market data quality, and work-based learning models like registered apprenticeships. We also got into why adaptability may be the most important skill of the moment — and why, counterintuitively, the liberal arts might be having a moment. Why We Tax Work More Than Wealth It’s tax season, which means it’s a good time to revisit a question that’s been on our minds: why does the U.S. tax income from work at a higher rate than income from investments? We take a look at the history, going back 100 years to Andrew Mellon — U.S. Treasury Secretary in the 1920s and one of the wealthiest men in America. Mellon is a hero of tax-cutting conservatives and libertarian, but his views were more complicated than often presented. He even argued in a 1924 book that wages should be taxed more lightly than investment income. But he oversaw the development of a system that does the opposite — particularly at the highest levels of income. We’re still living with those policy choices today. We talked through what that means — particularly as more workers shift to 1099 arrangements and building wealth through a paycheck becomes harder. Coming Up: Turmoil in the Private Credit Markets We’re bringing in our first guest for this one — Michael Hardaway, former aide to President Obama and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries. The topic: private credit markets and the “shadow banking” sector. While we may not be looking at a 2008-level crisis, the issue has lots of implications for retirement accounts and everyday investors. Later this week, we’ll get into what’s actually happening — and what can be done about it. Show Link: Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/3mtATdDHJppQgvGHYUdmRL] More soon! Joanna & Cyrus And thanks to Olivia Bortner for video editing support This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joannamikulski.substack.com [https://joannamikulski.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]

Pod Sneak Peek!

A few weeks ago, I previewed that my friend and colleague Cyrus Garrett and I are working on a podcast. The wait is over! This is a sneak peek for the (select and very special) Draft/Deliberative subscriber list. Cyrus and I met several years ago through the nonprofit America Achieves. It was the middle of the pandemic, and I was still living in London and getting ready to move with my family back to the U.S. Cyrus had just finished up work with the Biden campaign. We connected over a shared interest in understanding the history that got us to this present moment, how to make policy actually deliver for people — and how to communicate the nuts and bolts of what government does in ways that non-policy wonks (i.e., most people) can understand. We’ve been friends ever since, and we’re now turning our regular conversations about policy, politics, history, and the state of the world into a podcast. (Because what else does one do in 2026?) We’d love it if you’d check it out and give us feedback — but nice constructive feedback, please! This is still an experiment. We’re trying this out, and your thoughts will help us figure out where to take this endeavor in the future (if at all, lol). What should we talk about it? Feel free to pitch us on topics and guests (even yourself;-). Warmly, Joanna & Cyrus This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joannamikulski.substack.com [https://joannamikulski.substack.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_1]