Sentinel Minutes

″🟩 Trump administration imposes export controls on new Anthropic model, US-Iran peace deal announced, Ebola spreads further || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #24/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Executive summary Geopolitics: The US and Iran announced that a peace deal has been agreed. Putin acknowledged that Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory are harming Russia's economy. * Before 2027, will a ceasefire (covering land, sea and air) between Russia and Ukraine be agreed for a period longer than 3 days? Our forecasters give this a 26% (20% to 40%) probability. * Before August 2026, will a US-Iran peace deal be signed, involving a cessation of hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping (with or without a toll system)? Our forecasters think there's a 76% (70% to 85%) chance. Technology and AI: Anthropic's Fable 5 model was released to the general public, before access was revoked for everyone after the US government imposed export controls. The US's Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) was barred from publishing model assessments. * Will access to Anthropic's Fable 5 model be restored to the US general public before July 2026? Our forecasters are broadly uncertain, giving this a 64% (50% to 75%) chance. * If so, will non-US citizens residing in Europe gain access to it again? Our forecasters are fairly confident about [...] --- Outline: (00:23) Executive summary (03:28) Geopolitics (03:31) Middle East (04:30) Europe (05:02) Technology and artificial intelligence (08:42) Biorisk (10:19) Economy (10:49) Nature and climate --- First published: June 15th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-imposes-export [https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-imposes-export?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=sentinel_team&utm_campaign=ai_narration]. --- Images from the article: Distribution of confirmed cases of Bundibugyo virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, as of 10 June; and Uganda, as of 11 June, via the WHO. [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!C6GM!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7858a05c-d73b-42f6-a3df-207d102855d0_1153x689.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!C6GM!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7858a05c-d73b-42f6-a3df-207d102855d0_1153x689.png ---------------------------------------- Via CNN [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PL5v!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb6d8bf73-f740-4912-8c0d-a0685223089c_860x573.jpeg]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PL5v!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb6d8bf73-f740-4912-8c0d-a0685223089c_860x573.jpeg Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts [https://pocketcasts.com/], or another podcast app.

″🟩 Iran and Israel exchange fire for first time since April, Trump signs AI executive order, Ebola outbreak grows || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #23/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Executive summary Geopolitics: Iran and Israel exchanged fire for the first time since the fragile ceasefire began in April. A Ukrainian maritime drone crashed into a Black Sea port in Romania. * Before September 2026, will a NATO country invoke Article 4 consultations in response to suspected or proven Russian aggression? Our forecasters think there's a 21% (12% to 40%) chance. * Will a peace agreement between the US and Iran, that includes opening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping with or without a toll system, be signed before July 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 28% (21% to 35%) chance. Technology and AI: Trump signed an executive order that calls on frontier AI labs to provide the US government with early access to their models for pre-deployment testing. * Will Anthropic, OpenAI and Google DeepMind voluntarily act in accordance with Trump's executive order 14409 through the end of 2026? Our forecasters estimate that there's a 77% (63% to 93%) probability. Biorisk: While the Ebola outbreak continues to grow, hundreds of suspected cases and deaths were removed from official case tallies, with the WHO now reporting 93 confirmed deaths. The New World screwworm has been found [...] --- Outline: (00:22) Executive summary (02:23) Geopolitics (02:26) Middle East (03:51) Europe (05:32) The Americas (05:49) Technology and artificial intelligence (08:12) Biorisk (11:37) Economy --- First published: June 8th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-and-israel-exchange-fire-for [https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-and-israel-exchange-fire-for?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=sentinel_team&utm_campaign=ai_narration]. --- Images from the article: Area chart showing weekly token consumption of top 9 AI models through OpenRouter API calls. [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iSiu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc0c8d8b-61e6-4c14-8e5e-24244a363a4b_1298x1184.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iSiu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc0c8d8b-61e6-4c14-8e5e-24244a363a4b_1298x1184.png ---------------------------------------- [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LADA!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe73c5611-dd12-4f87-ad69-5008af3b4648_1458x1566.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LADA!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe73c5611-dd12-4f87-ad69-5008af3b4648_1458x1566.png Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts [https://pocketcasts.com/], or another podcast app.

″🟩 Russian drone hits Romanian apartment block, Ebola deaths rise at slower pace, Anthropic surpasses OpenAI valuation || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #22/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Executive summary Geopolitics: A Russian drone hit an apartment building in Romania, injuring two people. Israel continues to strike Lebanon and Gaza. * Will at least 10,000 deaths in Gaza and Lebanon be attributed to Israeli military action between June 1 and September 1, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 19% (7% to 35%) chance. Biorisk: Reported Ebola deaths continued to rise, though at a slower pace. There are currently between 220 and 300 suspected deaths. * Will at least two countries besides the DRC have at least 1,000 confirmed and suspected cases of Bundibugyo Ebolavirus by the end of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 37% (20% to 50%) chance. * Will there be more than 20,000 confirmed and suspected cases of Ebola in the current outbreak by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 55% (35% to 70%) chance. Technology and AI: Anthropic surpassed OpenAI's valuation in its latest funding round. * What is the chance that Anthropic's valuation will exceed that of OpenAI by at least 50% on June 1, 2027? Our forecasters estimate that there's a 35% (20% to 51%) probability. Economy: * Will the hourly Brent crude oil futures [...] --- Outline: (00:22) Executive summary (02:11) Geopolitics (02:14) Middle East (03:55) Europe (05:00) Asia-Pacific (05:33) The Americas (05:36) Latin America (05:59) The United States (07:12) Africa (07:25) Technology and artificial intelligence (11:27) Biorisk (14:00) Economy The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 1st, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/russian-drone-hits-romanian-apartment [https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/russian-drone-hits-romanian-apartment?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=sentinel_team&utm_campaign=ai_narration]. --- Images from the article: Graph showing [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rQqE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ef11833-aa6f-4866-920d-26fbb4d8cc8b_2048x1553.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rQqE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ef11833-aa6f-4866-920d-26fbb4d8cc8b_2048x1553.png ---------------------------------------- Via Trading Economics. [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wkY5!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F521c183d-a1e4-4b13-8da3-919ccbcdfba2_1153x701.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wkY5!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F521c183d-a1e4-4b13-8da3-919ccbcdfba2_1153x701.png Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts [https://pocketcasts.com/], or another podcast app.

″🟩 Renewed US-Iran negotiations, OpenAI and DeepMind models solve Erdos problems, Ebola deaths increase || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #21/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump said that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is near. Rubio called Cuba a leading state sponsor of terror and questioned whether diplomacy with the regime would work. * Will the US carry out a strike on Cuba's territory by the end of July 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 34% (20% to 50%) chance. Biorisk: The number of suspected deaths in the current Ebola outbreak has exceeded 200. * How many suspected deaths will there be due to the Ebola outbreak by the end of June and by the end of 2026? Our forecasters’ aggregate 90% confidence intervals are 870 to 18K and 3.5K to 200K respectively. * Will there be more than 10 recorded cases of Ebola in the US and Europe by the end of 2026, including imported cases? Our forecasters think there's a 68% (50% to 85%) chance. Technology and AI: Trump held back from signing an executive order encouraging AI labs to have their models reviewed by the US government prior to release. OpenAI said that a general-purpose model has autonomously solved an Erdos problem, while DeepMind said one of its models has solved [...] --- Outline: (00:22) Executive summary (02:34) Geopolitics (02:36) Middle East (03:42) Europe (03:56) Asia-Pacific (04:21) The Americas (04:24) Latin America (06:08) The United States (06:34) Technology and artificial intelligence (09:19) Biorisk (15:24) Economy --- First published: May 25th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/renewed-us-iran-negotiations-openai [https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/renewed-us-iran-negotiations-openai?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=sentinel_team&utm_campaign=ai_narration]. --- Images from the article: Pictured: a visualization of how the kind of object that would disprove the unit distance conjecture might look like. The actual solution procedure was complicated and probabilistic enough that one can’t actually run it in practice. h/t Alvaro Lozano-Robledo. The solution which was previously thought to be optimal was a grid of squares. [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lInJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55cd32fb-da5b-4b92-bba2-b565ee2c5005_2012x2048.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lInJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55cd32fb-da5b-4b92-bba2-b565ee2c5005_2012x2048.png ---------------------------------------- Line graph titled [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Br5u!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F99e01f77-8797-4c04-9af9-04351a5684e4_1380x896.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Br5u!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F99e01f77-8797-4c04-9af9-04351a5684e4_1380x896.png Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts [https://pocketcasts.com/], or another podcast app.

″🟩 US and China discuss AI guardrails, Ebola declared a Public Health Emergency, Trump and Iran trade barbs || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #20/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Executive summary Technology and AI: The US and China discussed AI guardrails to mitigate risks from frontier AI models. * Will the US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027 in which both governments state or clearly imply reciprocal expectations, commitments, rules, or norms governing AI development, deployment, security, or military use? Our forecasters believe there's a 21% (15% to 35%) probability. * Before 2027, will the US publicly support creating or moving toward an international AI governance body with an IAEA-like role that includes China? Our forecasters think there's a 8.7% (5% to 15%) chance. Biorisk: A new Ebola outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. * As of June 13, 2026, what will be the cumulative total number of recorded deaths linked to the Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak first confirmed in Ituri Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, in May 2026? Our forecasters’ aggregate 50th percentile estimate is 208 (185 to 230). Geopolitics: Donald Trump again warned Iran to agree to a peace deal quickly, and shared an AI-generated image of him pressing a red button with a mushroom cloud in the background. * [...] --- Outline: (00:21) Executive summary (02:51) Geopolitics (02:53) Middle East (03:43) Europe (04:09) The Americas (04:11) Latin America (07:21) The United States (07:48) Asia-Pacific (08:00) Africa (09:06) Technology and artificial intelligence (11:04) Biorisk (12:56) Economy --- First published: May 18th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-and-china-discuss-ai-guardrails [https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-and-china-discuss-ai-guardrails?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=sentinel_team&utm_campaign=ai_narration]. --- Images from the article: Via the Famine Early Warning System (fews.net) [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1-Mz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fadaab734-9c7c-483f-937f-111364604cf5_1360x460.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1-Mz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fadaab734-9c7c-483f-937f-111364604cf5_1360x460.png ---------------------------------------- Via FRED: [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LKae!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9f8fd707-e876-47c8-af32-c6d21f29ea60_1260x827.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LKae!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9f8fd707-e876-47c8-af32-c6d21f29ea60_1260x827.png ---------------------------------------- Oil types by dependency on the type disrupted by Hormuz closures (Group III). Some types of passenger car motor oil (PCMO) are shown in red and orange, indicating that it would be difficult to replace Group III base oils in these applications [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WkH7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa8cb325c-7928-4852-91d6-3193395e6b92_1726x1590.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WkH7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa8cb325c-7928-4852-91d6-3193395e6b92_1726x1590.png Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts [https://pocketcasts.com/], or another podcast app.