Why Should We Care if Vietnam is Swinging Toward China? | with Dr. Nguyễn Khắc Giang

Why Should We Care if Vietnam is Swinging Toward China? | with Dr. Nguyễn Khắc Giang

Is Vietnam quietly drifting into China's orbit, and what does that mean for the United States and the future of Southeast Asia? Dr. Nguyễn Khắc Giang explains why Hanoi is hedging harder than ever because, as the Vietnamese saying goes, "when the buffaloes and oxen lock horns, the mosquitoes and flies suffer." In this episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Dr. Giang, Visiting Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, to unpack his provocative Carnegie essay, "Why Vietnam Is Swinging in China's Direction." Giang argues that Vietnam isn't becoming pro-China, it's hedging in a world where US policy feels unpredictable and China is offering concrete benefits: market access, infrastructure, technology, and political reassurance. The conversation moves from geopolitics to economics: US tariffs, transshipment concerns, Vietnam's export boom, and the risk of being crushed between Washington and Beijing. Giang explains Vietnam's delicate formula: stay close enough to China to manage the relationship, but distant enough to preserve its independence. Ray and Jim also dig into Vietnam's defense strategy and its slow move beyond Russian weapons, then go inside Vietnamese politics under General Secretary Tô Lâm, whose consolidation of power is making foreign policy faster, more personal, and more ambitious. In this episode: * Why Vietnam is one of Asia's most important "swing states" * US tariffs, transshipment, and Vietnam's export boom * China's high-speed rail and technology offer * Vietnam's arms diversification beyond Russia * Tô Lâm's consolidation of power and the "Blazing Furnace" anti-corruption campaign * Vietnam's reaction to the Trump-Xi summit Subscribe for weekly Indo-Pacific analysis from a former US military officer and a former US diplomat who've spent their careers in the region. * Follow Dr. Nguyễn Khắc Giang on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nguyen-khac-giang-60344620/] or on X, @khacgiang [https://x.com/khacgiang] * Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/], or Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] * Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymondpowell/], or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight [https://www.sealight.live/] * Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] * Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/], a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Why Should We Care if a U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral can Deter China? | with Lisa Curtis and Ryan Claffey

Japan sits just 68 miles from Taiwan, while the Philippines is even closer at 61. As one guest puts it, “You can’t invade Taiwan if you don’t control the northern Philippines.” That geography is exactly why three countries - the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines - are quietly building what may become the backbone of deterrence in the Western Pacific. In this episode, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Lisa Curtis, Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), and research assistant Ryan Claffey to discuss their report: “U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Cooperation: The Bedrock of a New U.S. Indo-Pacific Deterrence Strategy [https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/u-s-japan-philippines-trilateral-cooperation].” The conversation covers: * Why the First Island Chain, from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines, is the most strategically consequential geography in the world today * How a bankrupt Subic Bay shipyard nearly fell into Chinese hands and is now being transformed into a military-commercial hub central to U.S. forward posture * The expansion of the U.S.-Philippine Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites in northern Luzon and what permanent missile deployments in Batanes would mean for deterrence across the Luzon Strait * Whether Trump’s transactional approach to Beijing and the prospect of a trade-focused summit could undermine allied solidarity * Philippine political risks, including the Sara Duterte faction and what a change in Manila’s leadership could mean for the alliance * Japan’s growing security role under Prime Minister Takaichi, from record defense spending to missile deployments across the Southwest Islands * The race for critical minerals, the Luzon Economic Corridor, and how economic resilience underpins the security architecture * Why this trilateral could become the foundation for a broader networked deterrence strategy across the Indo-Pacific Whether you’re following the South China Sea, Taiwan, U.S.-China competition, Japan’s security pivot, or the future of Indo-Pacific alliances, this episode breaks down why the U.S.-Japan-Philippines triangle may become one of the region’s most important strategic partnerships. 👉 Follow Lisa Curtis on on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/lisa-curtis-08204b50/] or X, @LisaCurtisDC [https://x.com/LisaCurtisDC]; follow Ryan Claffey on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryanclaffey/] or X, @RyanHClaffey [https://x.com/RyanHClaffey] 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/], or Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymondpowell/] 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, [https://bowergroupasia.com/]a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Why Should We Care if Energy Dependence Undermines Southeast Asia’s Quest for Agency? | with Gita Wirjawan

Indonesia’s former trade minister Gita Wirjawan [https://aparc.fsi.stanford.edu/people/gita-wirjawan] - Stanford visiting scholar and host of the Endgame [https://www.youtube.com/@Endgame_Clips] podcast - joins Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to unpack what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for Southeast Asia and why it is more than just an oil shock. With a significant share of the region’s energy flowing through this narrow chokepoint, the disruption is exposing how vulnerable Southeast Asia really is. Most countries hold only weeks to a couple of months of fuel reserves, and governments like Indonesia - already facing higher-than-expected oil prices - are being forced into difficult tradeoffs between subsidies, social programs, and fiscal stability. Gita explains why countries like the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia are particularly exposed, and why switching energy suppliers is far more complicated than it sounds. He also walks through how rising fuel costs ripple quickly into everyday life, especially in archipelagic economies where higher transport costs can drive up food prices and strain household budgets. The conversation goes beyond the immediate crisis to explore deeper structural challenges, including limited fiscal space, reliance on foreign investment, weak regulatory environments, and gaps in technical capacity. Gita argues that these factors make it harder for Southeast Asia to attract the capital needed to strengthen its energy security and long-term resilience. Looking ahead, the discussion turns to whether this crisis could become a turning point. While renewable energy is becoming cheaper and more viable, scaling it across the region will require massive investment and stronger governance. The episode closes by asking whether Southeast Asia can use this moment to assert greater agency, or whether it will remain dependent on forces beyond its control. 👉 Follow Gita Wirjawan on YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@gwirjawan] or on X, @GWirjawan [https://x.com/GWirjawan] 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/], or Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymondpowell/], or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight [https://www.sealight.live/] 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/], a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Why Should We Care if North Korea's "Little Rocket Man" is Firing Off Missiles Again? | with Ankit Panda

While U.S. attention has been consumed by wars in the Middle East and Europe, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is expanding his nuclear arsenal, testing missiles from land and sea, and locking in a new strategic partnership with Russia. In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Ankit Panda - Stanton Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, co‑host of the Asia Geopolitics [https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJl8CPvDKG4EgI0YSHZNkXnQxBkLNF034&si=wACy3ztOHk3r6bbO] podcast at The Diplomat [https://thediplomat.com/], and one of the world’s leading experts on North Korea’s nuclear and missile forces - to unpack what’s really going on in Pyongyang and why it matters far beyond the Korean Peninsula. Ankit explains why North Korea is now America’s “third nuclear adversary,” with intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the U.S. homeland and the lowest threshold for nuclear use of any nuclear‑armed state on Earth. He traces how Kim’s testing program shifted from cautious development to high‑tempo nuclear war exercises, including tactical nuclear weapons aimed squarely at U.S. and South Korean forces in the region. The conversation digs into the deepening Russia-North Korea military partnership, the implications of the new Choe Hyon‑class destroyer and submarine programs, and the stability‑instability paradox that could make conventional clashes more likely as Pyongyang’s deterrent matures. Ankit also lays out his argument for a U.S. policy shift from denuclearization to “stable coexistence,” explains why Washington already treats Kim as a nuclear peer in practice, and warns of the growing risk that South Korea could break from the Non‑Proliferation Treaty and pursue its own bomb. If you care about U.S. extended deterrence, the future of the Indo‑Pacific security order, North Korea-Russia cooperation, the South Korea nuclear debate, or the rising risk of nuclear crisis in Northeast Asia, this is a conversation you need to hear! 👉 Follow Ankit Panda on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/ankitpanda/] or on X, @nktpnd [https://x.com/nktpnd] 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/], or Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymondpowell/], or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight [https://www.sealight.live/] 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/], a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Why Should We Care About the U.S.-Philippine Alliance? with AMB MaryKay Carlson

In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with retired U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson, who led America’s embassy in Manila from July 2022 to January 2026, one of the most consequential periods in the modern history of the U.S.-Philippine alliance. Ambassador Carlson takes us inside the alliance at a moment of dramatic transformation: the 75th anniversary of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, the 80th anniversary of diplomatic relations, the 10th anniversary of the 2016 Arbitral Award on the South China Sea, and the Philippines’ year as ASEAN Chair under President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.. She walks us through the most dangerous flashpoints in the West Philippine Sea: the June 2024 ramming at Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin) that cost a Filipino sailor his thumb, and the August 2025 Scarborough Shoal incident in which a Chinese Coast Guard cutter collided with its own PLA Navy destroyer while chasing a Philippine vessel. We dig into the strategic geography that makes the Philippines irreplaceable to America’s Indo-Pacific strategy; the largest Balikatan exercise in history; the expansion of EDCA sites; the new $2.5 billion Philippine Enhanced Resilience Act; the new Luzon Economic Corridor (with Japan); the U.S.-Philippines 123 civil nuclear agreement; and the 19% Trump tariff Carlson openly wishes had been much lower. She offers a candid read on China’s Ambassador Huang Xilian’s successor, Jing Quan, the limits of the ASEAN Code of Conduct, and what actually deters Beijing’s gray-zone aggression in the South China Sea. If you follow U.S.-China competition, the U.S.-Philippines alliance, ASEAN, Philippine politics, the Marcos administration, Indo-Pacific strategy, the South China Sea, or U.S. foreign policy under the second Trump administration, this is essential listening from someone who lived it up close. 👉 Follow AMB Carlson on X, @MaryKayCarlson [https://x.com/MaryKayCarlson] 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast [https://x.com/IndoPacPodcast], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/why-should-we-care-about-the-indo-pacific/], or Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/IndoPacPodcast] 👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay [https://x.com/GordianKnotRay], or LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/raymondpowell/], or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight [https://www.sealight.live/] 👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-carouso-baa31a9/] 👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia [https://bowergroupasia.com/], a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific