Behind The Numbers

Budget 2026: Can Australia Tax Its Way to Affordability? With Cameron Kusher and Cate Bakos

In this episode of Behind the Numbers, we unpack the 2026 Federal Budget and what it could mean for housing, renters, investors, inflation, and the broader Australian economy. The government says the proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax are designed to improve affordability and create more opportunity for first home buyers. But with Australia already facing critically low rental vacancy rates, rising construction costs, and not enough housing supply, we ask whether these reforms risk placing even more pressure on renters. We discuss: * why the Budget may have created two property classes in Australia * what happens if investors leave the market faster than new housing is built * how rising rents could become an unintended consequence of the reforms * why regional Australia could feel the pressure hardest * and whether younger Australians are facing a very different pathway to wealth creation than previous generations We also explore the broader economic contradiction sitting underneath the Budget, with inflation still being driven by global instability and energy costs while the Reserve Bank continues using higher interest rates to slow the economy down. It is a direct and practical conversation about what these changes could actually mean for everyday Australians over the next few years. See omnystudio.com/listener [https://omnystudio.com/listener] for privacy information.

A Lineball Call: Rates Up, Pressure On

The RBA’s latest rate decision was anything but straightforward. A 5–4 split has pushed the cash rate higher, at a time when households are already facing rising fuel costs and ongoing pressure on affordability. So what problem is this rate rise actually trying to solve? In this episode, we unpack the growing divide in economic thinking. Is inflation being driven by demand, or by global forces beyond our control? Are we moving too early, or doing what’s necessary to stay ahead? We also explore what this means on the ground. Consumer confidence, spending behaviour, borrowing capacity, and the early signals in the labour market. And with the RBA acknowledging that a recession is a risk, we ask the question many are starting to consider. How far does this tightening cycle go, and what does the economy look like on the other side? See omnystudio.com/listener [https://omnystudio.com/listener] for privacy information.

Inside the REIP Data - The First Rental and Sales Signals of 2026

In this episode of Behind The Numbers, we unpack exclusive REIP behavioural data revealing how the market is really moving beneath the headlines. Seller appraisals strengthened early in the year, signalling renewed intent. Buyer inspections have been active but sensitive to interest rate shifts. And in the rental market, actual lease outcomes are showing tighter conditions than advertised rents suggest. We also examine the growing conversation around potential changes to the Capital Gains Tax discount. What could this mean for investor confidence, rental supply and long-term market stability? Joining us are Cate Bakos and Cameron Kusher as we explore how policy signals, investor sentiment and real-time activity are shaping the next phase of the property cycle. This is not speculation. It’s behaviour. And the signals matter. See omnystudio.com/listener [https://omnystudio.com/listener] for privacy information.

What the January 2026 Property Data Is Telling Us

January has confirmed what many already felt – Australia’s property market is moving, but not in one direction. In this January Behind the Numbers wrap, we unpack a highly diverse market. National home values lifted modestly, but growth varied sharply by location. Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart and Canberra recorded slower conditions, while Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide and Darwin continued to outperform. Several regional markets also posted stronger growth than their capital city counterparts. We explore why Melbourne unit prices are now rising faster than houses, driven largely by first home buyers seeking affordability and proximity. We also discuss investor behaviour, rental yields, and why Melbourne is increasingly viewed as a value market. On lending, higher prices are translating into larger loan sizes, with average settled loans up around 11 per cent year on year. With inflation back in focus and interest rate expectations shifting, we look at how borrowers are responding, particularly around serviceability, pre-approvals and timing. Migration, supply constraints and tight rental conditions continue to shape outcomes across the country, keeping vacancy rates low and rents under pressure. As always, this episode focuses on what the data is really telling us – and how Australians are navigating the market right now. See omnystudio.com/listener [https://omnystudio.com/listener] for privacy information.

The Market Signals Shaping 2026 - Behind the Numbers Market Update

As 2025 draws to a close, Australia’s property market is sending some new and important signals. In this episode of Behind the Numbers, we unpack the December data and the early trends shaping 2026, with a sharp focus on one of the biggest forces in the market right now: listings. National stock levels remain well below long-term averages, and where listings are tight, prices have continued to hold up. At the same time, we saw the first pockets of negative monthly price movement in key markets, raising questions about whether the market is cooling, pausing, or simply resetting. Our panel breaks down what the data is telling us about listing volumes, price momentum, metro versus regional performance, auction conditions, and rental trends, and what it all means for buyers, sellers, investors and renters heading into the year ahead. Clear numbers, practical insights, and a calm look at what to watch next. See omnystudio.com/listener [https://omnystudio.com/listener] for privacy information.