Cotton Markets Navigate Export Wobbles and China Trade Hopes While Holding the Low Eighties
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This is your Cotton podcast.
Hey friends, Vanessa Clark here, and this is the Daily Cotton Price Tracker, where we break down what is happening in the cotton market in just a couple of minutes.
Let us start with current prices. According to ICE futures data reported by Trading Economics and Investing sites, nearby US cotton futures are trading in the low eighty cents per pound range, roughly around eighty to eighty two cents. That is up from the recent intraday low near eighty point six cents per pound reached late last week, but still below the mid May spike that pushed prices toward the upper eighties.
So what is driving cotton prices right now
Trading Economics reports that cotton futures have been recovering from those two week lows, helped by a weaker United States dollar and higher crude oil prices. Higher oil prices can support cotton because they make synthetic fibers like polyester more expensive, which can improve relative demand for natural fiber.
On the demand side, the United States Department of Agriculture weekly export sales report has been soft. Trading Economics notes that recent net sales were down more than twenty percent year on year, and shipments fell to an eight week low. Earlier in May, SunSirs reported that United States weekly upland cotton export sales dropped over sixty percent from the prior week, which helped trigger a sharp sell off in New York and Zhengzhou cotton futures.
There is also a big macro story. Both Barchart and Trading Economics highlight comments from the White House that China has committed to purchase at least seventeen billion dollars a year in United States agricultural products from twenty twenty six through twenty twenty eight. That boosted hopes for future export demand, even though current sales are lagging the usual pace.
Looking ahead, the market is watching United States planting progress and dry conditions in key states like Texas. The May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture projects United States cotton output for the twenty twenty six to twenty twenty seven season at about thirteen point three million bales, down from the previous year, with lower global ending stocks and slightly higher consumption. That points to tighter world cotton supplies over the medium term, which can be supportive for prices if demand holds up.
In China, SunSirs notes that Zhengzhou cotton futures recently sold off hard after a strong rally, pressured by weak downstream textile demand and worries that state reserve releases could add extra supply to the domestic market. That internal weakness has been echoing into global sentiment.
For you as a grower, trader, or mill buyer, the key takeaways today are these. First, short term price action is choppy around the low eighty cent level, with the market torn between weak current exports and a tighter supply outlook ahead. Second, currency moves and energy prices are playing an unusually big role, so keep an eye on the dollar index and crude oil. Third, watch weekly United States export sales every Thursday, because any pickup from these low levels could quickly change the tone.
That is it for today’s Daily Cotton Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark. Thanks for listening, and if you find this helpful, be sure to subscribe and tune in next time for your quick update on cotton prices and market drivers.
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