Right to the Source

Episode 39: Dutch tax miss, World Cup prediction markets

Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin return after iGB L!VE [https://www.igblive.com/] to share some interesting numbers on the World Cup and Europe, starting with a Dutch gambling tax hike that has missed its target by some distance. From there, the pair also cover the latest updates on Ireland's new licensing regime. PREDICTION MARKET ACTIVITY DURING THE WORLD CUP H2 has been tracking prediction market activity throughout the tournament. By volume, DR Congo was the most backed country not to win the World Cup, while France, Spain and Portugal led the standings for teams most backed to win. There was also a very interesting finding in terms of the matches with the highest losing trades. Tune in to find out what the matches are. You will be surprised by their commonality, which in fact favours traditional sportsbooks the most. Yet, prediction markets appear to have been caught out by them this time. DUTCH GAMBLING TAX HIKE REALITY CHECK The Netherlands raised its gambling tax in two phases, from 30.5% to 34.2% in January 2025 and then to 37.8% in January 2026. The Dutch Treasury predicted these hikes would generate an additional €108 million in 2025 and €216 million in 2026.  The actual numbers came in far lower [https://igamingbusiness.com/finance/tax/dutch-gambling-tax-rise-less-revenue/]: just €2 million extra in 2025, with 2026 estimated at €57 million. Ed is careful to note it is not just the tax rate to blame. New deposit limits, advertising curbs and the fading of the post-Euro 2024 revenue spike all played a role in shrinking the taxable base.  What is harder to ignore is the impact on land-based venues, with casino and gaming hall visits down around 11% year on year and several operators citing the tax hike as a factor in closures. The pair hint that tax hikes do not always work as governments expect, and the UK should take note. While in Europe, the pair also discuss the new licensing regime under GRAI in Ireland, which took effect on 1 July. Currently 89% of online betting is onshore but only 35% of the total market, because all iGaming remains offshore and unregulated.  Platform providers like Pragmatic Solutions have already gone live [https://igamingbusiness.com/company-news/pragmatic-solutions-igaming-platform-live-in-irelands-regulated-market/] to support operators through the transition. Check out the episode to find out H2's estimates of what the market could be worth as regulation extends further. IGB L!VE HIGHLIGHT: AFRICA SUMMIT Robin's highlight from the show was the Africa Summit, which brought together regulators from across the continent, including Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya, alongside industry bodies such as the African Tax Administration Forum. The event coincided with a high-level session hosted by the African iGaming Alliance [https://igamingbusiness.com/legal-compliance/african-gambling-regulators-convene-london-enhance-co-operation/], where regulators discussed sustainable taxation, channelisation and player protection, and helped advance plans for a continent-wide Africa Safer Gambling Week. Ed, who moderated a tax panel at the summit, raises a pointed question before signing off: if operators in some markets quietly absorb or avoid punitive tax rates, can the industry still credibly argue against high taxation elsewhere? Check out the full Right to the Source series [https://igamingbusiness.com/podcasts/right-to-the-source/] for data and insights.

Episode 38: Dan Phillips to discuss product innovation at iGB L!VE

Right to the Source welcomes its first guest in a while this week. Dan Phillips, CEO and Founder of NEL Advisory, joins Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin ahead of iGB L!VE [https://www.igblive.com/] to discuss product innovation and the recurrent grey market. PRODUCT INNOVATION: EVOLUTION OR ILLUSION? Before diving into the industry talk, Dan shares what it was like starting out as a dealer at a basement casino in Soho in 1996. Thirty years on, he brings a seasoned perspective to one of the episode's central questions: has the industry actually innovated? Ed thinks not. Bet builders are just multiples repackaged, prediction markets are regulatory arbitrage, and live casino has been around forever. Robin argues that real innovation is iterative problem-solving rather than headline-grabbing product launches.  Dan lands somewhere in the middle: the industry is better at merging concepts than creating new ones. You cannot uninvent something, so the only sensible move is to embrace it. Where all three find common ground is on AI. Dan's view is that its real value lies in true personalisation, not in Amazon-style recommendations. Ed agrees the potential is there, having watched the industry talk about personalisation for 15 years without delivering it.  THE GREY MARKET DEBATE Do operators that built their businesses in unregulated markets deserve credit for eventually going legit? Ed, Robin and Dan all land in different places on this one. Tune in to find out where each of them stands, and the hint is that nobody fully agrees. GETTING READY FOR IGB L!VE WHAT IS OPEN SPACE? As part of iGB Executive [https://igamingbusiness.com/igb-executive/], the Open Space session [https://igamingbusiness.com/igb-executive-events/open-space-product-innovation-in-gaming/] at iGB L!VE brings operators, suppliers and product leaders into the same room for something deliberately different from a standard panel.  Taking place on Wednesday, 1 July, from 2:30pm to 4:00pm in the South Galleries at ExCeL London, the format is audience-led and runs under Chatham House rules - meaning no recording, no report, just open conversation. Dan will be facilitating, moving between breakout tables and prodding the debate where needed. Around 70 people have signed up, and when asked in advance what they wanted to discuss, 36% said AI, 12% customer engagement and retention and 11% payments.  The session will also feature live voting and open idea sharing. As Dan puts it, the point is to have conversations that simply do not happen on panels. WHERE TO FIND YOUR RTTS HOSTS Ed will be on the taxation and channelisation panel at 2:00pm on Wednesday 1 July as part of the Africa Summit, and on the prediction markets and World Cup panel at 2:00pm on Thursday 2 July.  Robin will be hosting a fireside chat at the Startup Accelerator on 30 June and MCing the Africa Summit on 1 July. If you see any of them, do go and say hello. If you want to revisit any previous episodes before the show, the full Right to the Source series [https://igamingbusiness.com/podcasts/right-to-the-source/] is right here. See you at the show!

Episode 37: The World Cup betting opportunity, UAE and Finland unpacked

With the World Cup already underway, Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin are back with a data-packed episode covering H2's betting estimates for the tournament, the UAE's new regulatory CEO and what Finland's market opening really looks like in numbers. THE BIG NUMBERS BEHIND WORLD CUP BETTING H2 Gambling Capital estimates $60 billion will be wagered through legal sportsbooks globally at this year's World Cup, which is a 71% increase on the 2022 tournament.  Among the three host nations, the US leads with $2.9 billion while Mexico is close behind at $2.5 billion. Tune in to find out what H2 estimates for a football-mad nation like Brazil. In addition, Ed notes that operators should treat the World Cup as a customer acquisition opportunity rather than a pure revenue play. With 104 matches, up from 64 in 2022, margin uncertainty on results makes the revenue picture harder to call. CAUTIOUSLY POSITIVE IN BOTH THE UAE AND FINLAND? As Robin reported [https://igamingbusiness.com/legal-compliance/uae-gambling-gcgra-ceo-ciaran-carruthers/], the GCGRA has appointed Ciarán Carruthers as its new CEO, replacing Kevin Mullally, who left in November last year. Carruthers brings significant Asian gaming experience from Galaxy, Sands China and Wynn Macau. Most recently, he steered Crown Resorts through its AML and responsible gambling remediation in Australia.  Robin finds the appointment genuinely compelling in view of the pro-industry approach and real scope for land-based growth. Ed is more sceptical, arguing that the UAE online market will be largely irrelevant to most of the industry. Listen in to hear where they land. In Finland, the number of companies which have applied for licences ahead of the market opening is far too many, according to the pair.  H2 estimates the licensed online market will reach $1.4 to $1.5 billion by 2028, up from $275 million now. Yet Ed raises questions about the "bad actor" provisions and what happens to operators currently targeting the market.  Ed closes with a pointed observation on the European Commission levy proposal: Is this what happens when AI-scraped data finds its way into policy? Check out the full Right to the Source series [https://igamingbusiness.com/podcasts/right-to-the-source/] for more iGaming insights.

Episode 36: From Mexico to Austria, with a $5.7bn Caesars deal in between

Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison are back with a round-the-world showcase in this episode, taking in three of the biggest stories in the industry: a market reshuffle in Mexico, Austria's long-awaited monopoly shake-up and the implications of the Caesars acquisition. MEXICO'S GAMBLING MARKET AT A CROSSROADS As the second biggest LatAm market after Brazil, Mexico has grown at a fast pace, and 80% of the market is onshore. However, a new 50% GGR tax rate and the licence revocation of Bet365 and Betano's licensing partner may now disrupt that growth.  H2 estimates Mexico's World Cup co-hosting role could generate around $2.5 billion in extra sportsbook turnover. Whether that offsets the drag from the tax hike remains to be seen. AUSTRIA IGAMING: ENDING MONOPOLIES BECOMING THE TREND? Austria's Ministry of Finance has leaked a draft bill to end Win2day's decades-long online gambling monopoly and open the market to multiple operators for the first time. As Imogen Goodman reports [https://igamingbusiness.com/legal-compliance/what-we-know-austria-igaming-liberalisation/], the Finance Ministry itself acknowledges the monopoly model has become increasingly difficult to enforce in the digital age. The reform could deliver a significant fiscal windfall, especially as Austria faces pressure to reduce its budget deficit. The pair welcome the direction of travel but raise serious concerns about what is on the table, for example, deposit limits of €250 per week for under-26s, a €2 maximum stake per spin and back taxes owed on outstanding Austrian court rulings.  Ed's early verdict is clear: with restrictions like these, the channelisation rate could end up closer to that of the Netherlands than anyone would like. As the Dutch channelisation slipped below 50% [https://igamingbusiness.com/finance/netherlands-channelisation-drops-illegal-market-grows/] in the first half of 2025 due to strict deposit limits, Austria has been warned. WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE CAESARS ACQUISITION? As iGB reported, Tilman Fertitta recently agreed a $5.7 billion deal to acquire Caesars Entertainment [https://igamingbusiness.com/finance/fertitta-agrees-to-buy-caesars-may-2026/]. Ed's key point is that the Caesars digital business is strategically valuable not just as a revenue line but also as a player data tool for cross-selling to land-based properties. Spinning it off risks destroying that value entirely. Tune in to hear the pair's full verdict. Finally, we want to thank everyone who has been listening and getting in touch. Every message means more than you think. Check out the full Right to the Source series [https://igamingbusiness.com/podcasts/right-to-the-source/] for more iGaming insights.

Episode 35: UK prize draws, RTP cuts and the industry crying wolf

Ed Birkin and Robin Harrison walk us through some of the key industry topics in the latest episode of Right to the Source. The UK takes centre stage, with a detour around the world for good measure. THE PRIZE DRAW OPPORTUNITY AND THE RTP DEBATE The pair touch on Portugal's new centralised self-exclusion system and Australia's gambling ad reforms before Robin introduces something genuinely new to the series: the UK prize draw market.  According to Robin, 44% of operators were incorporated after 2020. At £1.3 billion in annual player spend and 7.4 million active players, it is a young and largely unregulated sector operating outside Gambling Commission oversight.  As Nicole Macedo recently reported [https://igamingbusiness.com/legal-compliance/whitepaper-prize-draw-opportunity-uk-igaming/], with 88% of prize draw participants also engaging in commercial gambling, the cross-sell opportunity is hard to ignore. However, Ed is sceptical that it is a meaningful opportunity for real-money gaming operators, as he thinks the targeted players for prize draws are different. On the other hand, the remote gaming duty hike in the UK is pushing operators to lower slot RTPs. Both Ed and Robin land on the same conclusion: it is probably a bad thing for operators and players alike.  Ed draws on a conversation from the Big Daddy Gaming episode [https://igamingbusiness.com/casino-games/slots/right-to-the-source-big-daddy-gaming/] earlier in the year. Operators have spent years calibrating RTP to an optimal level. If it were simply a case of cutting it to make more money, they would have done it already.  Ed's bigger concern, though, is what this means for the industry's credibility. If the market keeps growing despite the tax hike, the government will simply conclude the industry was crying wolf.  BEYOND THE UK: PREDICTION MARKETS AND SPORTRADAR There are a few stories to keep the prediction market lively. The pair cover some recent developments regarding Brazil, the NCAA and DraftKings. Check out the prediction market roundup [https://igamingbusiness.com/prediction-markets/prediction-market-roundup-51526/] from iGB to keep up with the latest developments. The episode finishes with the Sportradar short-selling report [https://igamingbusiness.com/finance/sportradar-unregulated-revenues-ceo-carsten-koerl/]. Ed raises a pointed question about whether commercial data providers should also serve as integrity monitors. Tune in to hear Ed's verdict!