When Math Meets the Market | The Kelly Criterion in 2026 with Andrew Skatoff

When Math Meets the Market | The Kelly Criterion in 2026 with Andrew Skatoff

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Andrew Skatoff, CEO and CIO of Bank Creek Capital Advisors. Andrew shares his journey from traditional, deep-dive fundamental value investing to a highly systematic, quantitative approach. We dig into the data science behind the Kelly Criterion and how to apply gambling's "edge and odds" to optimize stock position sizing without risking gambler's ruin. The conversation explores the massive tax and behavioral benefits of the ETF wrapper, why the sweet spot for portfolio concentration sits between 30 and 50 stocks, and the strategy behind his new Billionaire's Club ETF, which uses founder wealth creation as a definitive signal for structural business advantages. 📈 Topics Covered • Andrew's transition from traditional fundamental value investing to a data-driven systematic approach • Understanding the Kelly Criterion: How to mathematically size positions based on edge and odds • The danger of going "Super Kelly" and why over-betting destroys long-term compounding • Identifying structurally advantaged businesses (monopolies, high margin stability) using volatility metrics • Why the ideal portfolio concentration sweet spot sits between 25 and 50 stocks • The psychological and tax advantages of using the ETF wrapper to eliminate behavioral anchoring and manage turnover • Lessons from the Great Financial Crisis: Why the "path" of volatility matters just as much as the overall return • The strategy behind the new Billionaire's Club ETF: Using founder wealth creation as a long-term momentum and durability signal If you enjoyed today's interview with Andrew Skatoff, be sure to check out his firms Billionaire's Club ETF!  https://www.billionairesclubetf.com/ And don't forget the book we discussed, Fortune's Formula. If you would like to pick up a copy for yourself, or just see what the book is all about, check out this link!  https://amzn.to/3SpOq5h 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

You have to Feel the Charts | Market Momentum in 2026 with John Kolovos

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by John Kolovos, Chief Technical Strategist at Macro Risk Advisors and President of the CMT Association. Recorded in late June 2026. John shares his top strategies for navigating the mature phases of a bull market and how to spot crucial momentum divergences when the "character" of the market begins to change. We dig into why momentum is the only true leading indicator, the danger of the US Dollar Index breaking out and flattening the yield curve, and how to combine textbook measured moves with Elliott Wave extensions to pick precise upside targets. The conversation also explores how to embrace uncomfortable market concentration using relative strength and honors the lost art of hand-drawing Point and Figure charts. 📈 Topics Covered • Understanding the "Momentum Trifecta": Combining price, volume, and breadth to confirm buy/sell signals • Recognizing "Good" vs. "Bad" overbought conditions when exiting a V-bottom or entering a mature trend • Why relative strength is the ultimate tool for navigating uncomfortable market concentration in institutional portfolios • How a US Dollar Index (DXY) breakout above 105.5 could aggressively flatten the yield curve and trigger a macro "risk-off" event • Why seasonal weakness (the "Sell in May" strategy) should make you highly skeptical of unseasonal market strength • The tactical case for a pullback in crude oil and a broader secular bearish trend in precious metals (Gold/Silver) • Combining traditional Edwards and Magee measured moves with Elliott Wave Fibonacci extensions to set price targets • Remembering the legacy of Steve Shobin and the "lost art" of hand-drawing charts to feel the rhythm of the tape 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

It's Different This Time! Right? | 2026's Market (bubble) with Dave Lundgren

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Dave Lundgren, founder and Chief Market Strategist at MOTR Capital Management & Research. Recorded in mid-June 2026. Dave Lundgren shares his systematic approach to combining momentum and trend following to build necessary guardrails against our worst investing impulses. We dig into why trying to completely eliminate your behavioral biases is a guaranteed way to fail, how the Jurassic Park franchise perfectly explains the storytelling psychology of market bubbles, and why investors must learn to operate in a dual environment—riding the robust bull market in leadership while avoiding the stealth bear market in everything else. The conversation also explores the fractal nature of trends and why the ultimate secret to navigating a bubble is to act as the "Sentinel," staring strictly at the market structure "fence" rather than the monsters of overvaluation. 📈 Topics Covered • The MOTR philosophy: Combining momentum and trend to systematically identify true market leadership • Why systematic investing doesn't eliminate behavioral biases, but rather builds essential guardrails to navigate them • The "Tuning Fork" concept: Learning to recognize your own emotional impulses and objectively test them against your process • The reality of backtesting: Why capturing the top decile is a more sustainable strategy than chasing the number one performing stock • The Jurassic Park metaphor: How market bubbles follow the exact same storytelling structure throughout history, just with different characters • Operating in a dual market: Navigating the robust bull market in AI leadership alongside the stealth bear market in lagging sectors • The "Sentinel" approach: Ignoring the news, the narratives, and the monsters of excessive leverage to focus strictly on the "fence" of market structure If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to go check out The Official podcast of the CMT Association Fill the Gap!  https://cmtassociation.buzzsprout.com/ 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

The Speculation Generation | 2026 Market Concentration with Jeff Huge

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Jeff Huge, Chief Investment Strategist at JWH Investment Partners. Recorded June 9th 2026. Jeff brings the hard data to explain why the current market concentration and speculative options trading represent an unprecedented historical extreme. We dig into the private-equity accounting methods artificially boosting mega-cap tech earnings, why the S&P 500’s return is completely flat if you subtract the semiconductor sector, and how the Elliott Wave theory signals a terminal market top. The conversation also explores the looming oil supply shock caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure, why rotating tech profits into defensive sectors is like pouring "buckets of capital into thimbles," and how to utilize a 25/25/25/25 "Perfect Portfolio" framework to protect your wealth. 📈 Topics Covered • Unprecedented market concentration: The top 10 stocks now make up 41% of the S&P 500 (matching the dot-com bubble peak) • The stark reality that the S&P 500 is completely flat off the March lows if you subtract the semiconductor sector • How equity ownership accounting (like mega-cap investments in Anthropic) is artificially boosting tech earnings beats • The "Speculation Generation": How retail call option volume on the S&P 500 has massively doubled to $2.6 trillion • Using Elliott Wave theory to identify a terminal "ending diagonal triangle" pattern, signaling a major market top • Why rotating massive tech profits into tiny defensive sectors (real estate, staples) is like pouring "buckets of capital into thimbles" • The hidden structural oil shortage caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure and the 12-16 week lag before consumers feel it at the pump • Navigating volatility with the "Perfect Portfolio" framework: Equally weighting 25% across equities, fixed income, cash, and alternatives (commodities/REITs) 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

Pay Less Attention to the News | Getting the Markets Right with JC O'Hara

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by JC O'Hara, Chief Technical Strategist at Roth Capital Partners. Recorded June 4th 2026.  JC shares his deep institutional experience to help investors understand why current market valuations aren't the ultimate timing tool and how trailing stops must adapt to volatile momentum trends. We dig into why quantitative trend-following models (CTAs) are the "secret rockstars" of this market, the danger of letting media headlines dictate your portfolio, and how to use short-term tools like the NYSE Tick Index to gauge intraday buying pressure. The conversation also explores the massive upcoming SpaceX IPO, looking back at historical analogs like Facebook's shaky debut to understand how to handle the hype of a new listing. 📈 Topics Covered • Why broad valuation metrics are better suited for bear market bottoms rather than timing bull market tops • Adapting trailing stops for momentum markets: Why a static 7% stop-loss will shake you out of a 1,000% gain • Understanding the "boogeyman in the room": Why quantitative trend-following systems (CTAs) are driving current market rotations • Being comfortable with uncomfortably narrow market leadership in year four of a bull market • Using the NYSE Tick Index (and its 20-day smoothed average) to spot intraday institutional buying pressure and market tops • Evaluating the massive upcoming SpaceX IPO by looking at historical analogs like Meta/Facebook's initial public offering • Debunking the "Sell in May" seasonality myth in favor of pure, immediate price action • Why trading based on news headlines (tariffs, COVID, geopolitics) is a surefire way to get the market wrong 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.