Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

The Speculation Generation | 2026 Market Concentration with Jeff Huge

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Jeff Huge, Chief Investment Strategist at JWH Investment Partners. Recorded June 9th 2026. Jeff brings the hard data to explain why the current market concentration and speculative options trading represent an unprecedented historical extreme. We dig into the private-equity accounting methods artificially boosting mega-cap tech earnings, why the S&P 500’s return is completely flat if you subtract the semiconductor sector, and how the Elliott Wave theory signals a terminal market top. The conversation also explores the looming oil supply shock caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure, why rotating tech profits into defensive sectors is like pouring "buckets of capital into thimbles," and how to utilize a 25/25/25/25 "Perfect Portfolio" framework to protect your wealth. 📈 Topics Covered • Unprecedented market concentration: The top 10 stocks now make up 41% of the S&P 500 (matching the dot-com bubble peak) • The stark reality that the S&P 500 is completely flat off the March lows if you subtract the semiconductor sector • How equity ownership accounting (like mega-cap investments in Anthropic) is artificially boosting tech earnings beats • The "Speculation Generation": How retail call option volume on the S&P 500 has massively doubled to $2.6 trillion • Using Elliott Wave theory to identify a terminal "ending diagonal triangle" pattern, signaling a major market top • Why rotating massive tech profits into tiny defensive sectors (real estate, staples) is like pouring "buckets of capital into thimbles" • The hidden structural oil shortage caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure and the 12-16 week lag before consumers feel it at the pump • Navigating volatility with the "Perfect Portfolio" framework: Equally weighting 25% across equities, fixed income, cash, and alternatives (commodities/REITs) 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

Pay Less Attention to the News | Getting the Markets Right with JC O'Hara

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by JC O'Hara, Chief Technical Strategist at Roth Capital Partners. Recorded June 4th 2026.  JC shares his deep institutional experience to help investors understand why current market valuations aren't the ultimate timing tool and how trailing stops must adapt to volatile momentum trends. We dig into why quantitative trend-following models (CTAs) are the "secret rockstars" of this market, the danger of letting media headlines dictate your portfolio, and how to use short-term tools like the NYSE Tick Index to gauge intraday buying pressure. The conversation also explores the massive upcoming SpaceX IPO, looking back at historical analogs like Facebook's shaky debut to understand how to handle the hype of a new listing. 📈 Topics Covered • Why broad valuation metrics are better suited for bear market bottoms rather than timing bull market tops • Adapting trailing stops for momentum markets: Why a static 7% stop-loss will shake you out of a 1,000% gain • Understanding the "boogeyman in the room": Why quantitative trend-following systems (CTAs) are driving current market rotations • Being comfortable with uncomfortably narrow market leadership in year four of a bull market • Using the NYSE Tick Index (and its 20-day smoothed average) to spot intraday institutional buying pressure and market tops • Evaluating the massive upcoming SpaceX IPO by looking at historical analogs like Meta/Facebook's initial public offering • Debunking the "Sell in May" seasonality myth in favor of pure, immediate price action • Why trading based on news headlines (tariffs, COVID, geopolitics) is a surefire way to get the market wrong 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

When the Market Shakes, Hold Onto Your Horses! | 2026's Volatility with Andrew Horowitz

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Andrew Horowitz, money manager at Horowitz & Company and host of the long-running Disciplined Investor podcast. Recorded May 28th 2026.  Andrew shares his perspective on tuning out the 24/7 news cycle and maintaining an objective, long-term mindset. We dig into why the stock market continues to hit all-time highs despite global conflicts and dismal consumer confidence, the hidden impact of government stimulus and "circular financing" fueling big tech earnings, and why paying too much attention to high valuations is a surefire way to miss a bull market. The conversation also explores the danger of getting trapped by economic narratives, why you should never take a stock tip on the golf course, and the ultimate importance of prioritizing process over prediction. 📈 Topics Covered • Navigating the 24/7 financial noise: Why zooming out to long-term charts is crucial for emotional discipline • The disconnect between record-low consumer sentiment (University of Michigan survey) and actual resilient consumer spending • Understanding "circular financing" and vendor financing: How big tech balance sheets are artificially pumping up current earnings • The massive underlying impact of government stimulus (CHIPS Act, Inflation Reduction Act) on corporate profits • Why traditional stock valuations don't matter in a momentum-driven, market-cap-weighted environment • The danger of "narrative bias" and why investors must adapt to the tape rather than fighting it • Why shorting the market as a long-term strategy historically destroys wealth • Process over prediction: Why having a repeatable, quantitative system is better than trying to guess the next market crash If you enjoyed this episode, please check out Andrew's Podcast as well! You can find him here: https://thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/ Also, don't forget to check out DH Unplugged as well for a more unscripted experience!: https://www.dhunplugged.com/ 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

Emotional? Don't trade just yet! | Fight your Fears and Save your Tears with Dr. Dave Bonanno

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by psychologist Dr. David Bonanno, author of The Consistently Calm Trader. Recorded 5/26/26.  Dr. Dave shares his clinical expertise to help investors understand the physical and subconscious forces that hijack our decision-making. We dig into why adrenaline is the ultimate enemy of the trader, the involuntary mechanics of the fight, flight, freeze, or fawn response, and why simply "trying harder" or gaining more market knowledge won't fix emotional trading. We also explore the dangers of "global thinking," why cultivating the ability to be sad is a psychological superpower, and how unique techniques leveraging eye movements can help traders reset their nervous systems and get out of their own way. If you enjoyed this interview and want to learn more about the psychology of good trades, check out Dr. Dave's book! https://amzn.to/4u4sBoM.   You can learn more about Dr. Dave's coaching services here https://maxdiscipline.com/ and also check out his YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/@dr.bonanno. 📈 Topics Covered • Why smart, analytical people consistently make irrational trading decisions under pressure • The physiological impact of adrenaline and how it forces the logical brain offline • Understanding the involuntary fight, flight, freeze, or fawn responses in the financial markets • Why "State Beats Thought" and why traditional journaling isn't always enough to fix subconscious habits • The danger of "global thinking" and tying your personal character or self-worth to individual trades • Embracing imperfection and learning to process sadness rather than anger or revenge trading • Using eye movement techniques (rooted in EMDR) to regulate the nervous system before a session • The crucial difference between emotional reactivity and trusting your market intuition 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

The Recession has Begun, and Costco Proves It | Redefining Diversification feat. Paisley Nardini

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Paisley Nardini, Managing Director and Head of Multi-Asset Solutions at Simplify Asset Management. Recorded May 12th, 2026 Paisley shares her perspective on why the traditional 60/40 portfolio faces significant challenges in a modern regime defined by sticky inflation and positively correlated stock-bond movements. We dig into why diversification requires more than just two asset classes, the tactical role of "liquid alternatives" like trend following to manage volatility, how hard assets can act as a natural hedge against inflationary pressures, and why Paisley believes "volatility is the price of entry" for long-term investors who want to participate in the market successfully. If you enjoyed this podcast, please give Paisley's a shot! You can catch her and her co-host Josh Flade talking about improving investor resilience at: https://buildingbetterportfolios.my.canva.site/ 📈 Topics Covered • The breakdown of stock-bond diversification in a high-inflation regime • Why the Fed is now "between a rock and a hard place" regarding interest rate policy • Why the "Fed Put" is no longer a reliable safety net for investors • Liquid alternatives and systematic trend following as essential negative correlation hedges • Hard assets (commodities/real assets) as an underrepresented inflation protection • Understanding the "everything else" category: Liquid alts, global macro, and tail-risk strategies • The educational gap in alternative investments for retail and advisor portfolios • Defining the "active" fee budget: Paying for risk management versus paying for traditional stock picking 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.