Likely Super El Niño building: a non-alarmist take on the risks

Likely Super El Niño building: a non-alarmist take on the risks

Today, a sober and thorough look at the risks for key commodities and equities on the powerful El Niño climate phenomenon building in the Pacific, one that could prove the most intense humanity has experienced in many decades. Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy takes you through the potential commodity impacts and reminds us that some areas can see positive outcomes even if key food commodities and even mining output could suffer significant disruptions. Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo looks at the impacts for key equity supply chains, insurance and energy. This, a round-up of what to look for in the week ahead as the US dollar is in breakout mode and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links * Ole's recent thorough survey of the key commodities markets that could see an impact from El Niño [https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/weather-risk-returns-as-el-nino-threatens-crops-grids-and-mines-18062026] * Ruben's recent piece look at El Niño risks from an equity sector angle [https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/el-nio-is-not-just-weather-18062026], particularly the impact on supply chains. * As mentioned on today's pod that while the equatorial Pacific is heating up, there is a "cold blob" in the North Atlantic, possibly suggesting something is going wrong with the important AMOC, the critical Atlantic Ocean current system that keeps Europe warm, among other impacts. Craig Tindale made a few comments on the cold blob on X [https://x.com/ctindale/status/2063379512004612222] and also links to his longer form post [https://x.com/ctindale/status/2052601002059276477] on how we are modeling climate change poorly, not properly appreciating feedback loops that could accelerate our climate impacts. Here is a good, "popular science" look at the AMOC and the feedback loop risks [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iw9AiEG-Qww] if the Greenland ice melt threatens to shut it down. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/]. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Accenture needing dentures after market knocks its teeth out

Today, we highlight another high energy day for the equity market, with semiconductor stocks screaming back higher and the US dollar continuing its move higher post-FOMC, even as we question whether the market is anticipating the future path of Fed policy appropriately. A focus on the worst performer in the S&P 500 today: Accenture, which was pummelled 18% to an almost nine-year low on fears of additional AI disruption even as the company scrambles for a new business model to have an answer for the age of AI. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links * John's latest The FX Trader [https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/the-fx-trader-usd-knee-jerks-stronger-on-first-warsh-led-fomc-18062026] update * Accenture knocked post earnings as it is scrambling to redefine itself - good coverage from FT [https://www.ft.com/content/9f063b07-da39-4feb-92ab-ee0f91385c62?syn-25a6b1a6=1]. * Izabella Kaminska with more of her usual second order thinking [https://x.com/izakaminska/status/2067504952499429878] on how to position the USD 300 billion package in the Iran deal. * Odd Lots podcast interviews the venerable Jeremy Grantham [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKAjxm44C6I&list=PLe4PRejZgr0OJbRzA6nWybYiThLJd_ouz&index=2], who has seen a think or two in his 87-plus years. * WSJ profiles the success of the Lynas CEO in building its rare earths capacity [https://www.wsj.com/business/amanda-lacaze-lynas-rare-earths-australia-91e8ad30?mod=Searchresults&pos=1&page=1]. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/]. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Fed Chair Warsh impact washes over markets

Today, we note the huge change in vibe and substance as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh took charge at the Fed at his first meeting. He is a great communicator and put his stamp on how this Fed will be a very different one with far fewer hints on its intentions - i.e. no forward guidance to the degree possible. The initial market read was clearly hawkish, but while short rates jumped as a possible FOMC rate hike was pulled forward, the longest treasury yields fell. We look at the reaction function across markets, including in currencies and more as the market will have to find its sea legs with this new Fed. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Link * As discussed on today's pod, interesting to note the GM-Lockheed Martin partnership announcement [https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/16/general-motors-lockheed-martin.html]. It wasn't specified what GM might produce, but the Iran war made clear that the US needs a new approach to mass producing military tech. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/]. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Choppy chips even as crude mega-dips. Warsh on tap.

Today, some last thoughts on the FOMC ahead of the meeting as the market is treating it with little anticipation even if this is likely to prove the most significant ideological change at the Fed since Greenspan left in 2006. Also - evidence from a choppy session for chips that the market nervousness may be rising for the hero sectors powering the recent market advance, especially given the max supportive move lower in crude oil yesterday, showing that lower oil prices have lost their impact as macro driver. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links * Yesterday's John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/p/the-tails-wagging-the-market-and] with more links, if you missed these. * Craig Tindale's latest on "Who owns the chemistry that turns metal into power. [https://x.com/ctindale/status/2067067613319205038]" Laying out why those critical materials are so critical and the systematic changes required to address the issue if China isn't to maintain its dominance and leverage. * Peter Garnry on SpaceX and how truly rare  it is to see the kind of growth that some are anticipating for this company [https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7472604062392238080/] - with only two prior examples that are even in the same universe for a company of size. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/]. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

The tails wagging the market and SpaceX dogs

Today's John J. Hardy Substack post for this podcast [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/p/the-tails-wagging-the-market-and] Today we look at a fresh stunning advance in US equities as we reapproach the all time highs for the main US indices, with a wild advance in SpaceX shares perhaps one key bit of the sentiment "tail" wagging the overall market dog as we also discuss why SpaceX shares may have risen so aggressively, even after hours yesterday. Elsewhere, a breakdown of the RBA and BoJ meetings and their impact, what we're watching for from the Fed, observations on the quality and sustainability of the US-Iran "deal" and more. Today' pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/] (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.