Saxo Market Call

With special guest Peter Garnry of Gesda Capital

Today, a conversation with special guest Peter Garnry, co-founder of Gesda Capital on choosing and valuing stocks for the long run, observations on the current state of play in AI as expressed in equity markets, the Meta and other news this week and its implications, whether AI can truly scale as hoped and so much more, even what Peter is reading these days. I'm sure listeners will enjoy this conversation. Links * IBM IBM CEO interview we referenced on the podcast on the future of the AI rollout [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxqrSXiRja4]. There is also this newer one [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YoyMz28ojA]- probably a lot of overlap. * The Abraham Lincoln biography Peter Garnry referred by John Meacham [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/And_There_Was_Light]. * and the John Kim book The Tao of Fund Raising [https://www.taooffundraising.com/]. * The Gesda capital [https://www.gesdacapital.com/] website. * John's latest FX Trader piece [https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/the-fx-trader-usd-sells-off-on-weak-jobs-report-03072026], including the impact of the US jobs data. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/]. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Meta announcement: just a warning shot or the actual pin prick?

Today, a look at global equity markets roiled by Meta's announcement that it will rent out use spare data center capacity for AI applications, raising concerns for AI-linked cap-ex and all stocks linked with the "AI picks and shovels" theme even as it was read as a boon for Meta's stock itself. Software as a service and consulting names also rallied on the news. Elsewhere, Japan is intervening against JPY weakness, sterling is breaking higher and we have a US June jobs report today ahead of a three-day weekend for US markets. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links * Ole's awesome article on the sub-7 kg technical marvels used by Tour de France cyclists, and the commodities they contain [https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/tour-de-france-the-7-kg-commodity-basket-behind-the-worlds-fastest-bikes-01072026]. * Michael McNair TLDR piece on SiriusXM holdings and, among other things, why it might have large suitors for a takeover [https://x.com/michaeljmcnair/status/2059373007882117536]. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/]. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Rocket Lab enters the space comms fray with Iridium grab. Also, USA at 250!

John's piece: Wall Street at 250 through a Wall Street lens: Where we've been and what comes next [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/p/usa-at-250-through-a-wall-street]. Today, a round-up of another session with AI hardware momentum names rocketing higher, while the broader market was largely sideways. Elsewhere, crypto and gold are both teetering near or beyond key support at critical technical levels, while we note an ugly turn in one part of the US Consumer Confidence picture. Finally, a look at Rocket Lab's acquisition of Iridium as it enters directly into the space-based communications fray with the big boys SpaceX and Amazon. And, with the USA set to turn 250 years old this Friday, we note today's link of the day on the USA through a Wall Street lens as it turns 250 years old this Saturday. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/]. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Leverage upon leverage, what could go wrong?

Today, a look at the latest strong session for some of the market's highest momentum names, as we note with some caution the risks that leverage, especially not fully evident hidden leverage is a mounting risk for the most speculative corners of the market. We also preview Nike earnings as the company does not yet look like a bargain after its 77% fall from all time highs into yesterday's low, unless it surprises strongly today after the close. Some thoughts on macro, FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links * FTAlphaville with coverage of the rising costs of equity financing on margin [https://www.ft.com/content/45a7e7b1-1064-4efe-b5a2-01499f24a1eb] and concerns into today's quarter-end. * Bloomberg also with coverage of leverage and especially the hidden leverage as some combine margin lending with  options buying, even on levered ETFs [https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-06-29/people-are-worried-about-stock-market-leverage]. What could go wrong? About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/]. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Flat Friday on the index surface, but bonkers beta underneath.

Today, a look at a much zanier Friday session in US equities than the almost flat close on the S&P 500 suggested as market internals have become wildly divergent, much of it linked to the market's bucketing of AI winners and losers. Elsewhere, as Volkswagen sets up a possibly 100,000 layoffs, in part on weaker Chinese demand and greater competition from cheaper Chinese EVs, and as Europe roasts with record high temperatures, will Europe's trade policy toward coal-burning China harden on climate grounds? As usual, macro and FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links * See Friday's John J. Hardy substack, in which I discussed the AI winners and losers on the very day when market internals went especially haywire [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/p/apple-pays-for-the-hubris-samsung] along the fault lines of this theme.  * A WSJ article suggests that one of China's latest AI models may match the ability to exploit cybersecurity vulnerabilities shown by Anthropic's Mythos [https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/chinese-ai-anthropic-mythos-cybersecurity-574b02c2].   * FTAlphaville with an excellent article wondering whether the current AI revolution may echo some of the impacts on labor and capital that marked especially the early decades of the Indutrial revolution [https://www.ft.com/content/daab10e0-fde8-4de0-9d46-a597d59b503d].   About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/]. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.