Saxo Market Call

AI picks & shovels rocket higher. If only they could open the Hormuz Strait.

Today, a look at a concentrated market rally in the US yesterday, led by big picks and shovels names in AI, with GE Vernova leading the pack, even as market breadth was flat and risk sentiment is wobbly elsewhere on Iran continuing to obstruct shipping through the Hormuz Strait. Software-as-a-service names were under pressure after the US market close yesterday on ServiceNow reported earnings, the first major SaaS name to do so for this earnings cycle. Also, Tesla earnings, macro and FX and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Luke Gromen was on Macrovoices last week [https://www.macrovoices.com/1516-macrovoices-528-luke-gromen-hormuz-could-lead-to-a-1956-us-suez-moment]and makes some key points on the risks to the global economy and markets if this Hormuz Strait crisis drags into summer. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/]. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Vast demand destruction is helping keep a lid on oil. Big SaaS test today.

Today, a look at a key factor keeping oil in check - namely demand destruction, as shipping flows through the Hormuz Strait remain at a trickle or less. Also, the factors supporting a still positive outlook for copper even at these levels. Elsewhere, a run through incoming earnings reports, including the first Software-as-a-Service (Saas) name of note reporting today after the close, which could prove an interesting test for the whole space. Macro, FX and more also on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/]. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

What to look for in Warsh nomination hearings as US-Iran talks also in focus.

Today, as the headline US equity indices finally paused for breath after their recent steep run-up, a run-down of incoming earnings today and tomorrow and single stock stories of note. Also, a reminder that the next 24 hours or so are critical for the degree to which headline risk is set to pick up from the Middle East as the US and Iran are meant to meet in Islamabad. Also, a look at macro and FX moves and what to look for in the Fed Chair nomination hearings for Kevin Warsh today. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/] (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Earnings season ramps up this week amidst pesky Hormuz Strait headline risk

Today, a brief look at waking up this week to the latest headline risks from the Hormuz Strait, which have only weakly impacted US equity futures, while European equities are weak out of the gate to star t the week. Elsewhere, we delve into key earnings reports last week from the big US banks, European luxury makers and Netflix and upcoming earnings this week, including Tesla and Intel, all with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo. Also, a look at confusing incoming US labor market and other data and more data on tap tomorrow, a look at the US dollar's status and more. Today's pod was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links * Ruben's post on Oil, EV batteries and a cheaper Tesla: the next phase of the EV race [https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/tesla-and-ev-developments-17042026] * Thoughtful Money podcast interviews a US freight market expert [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbyj1M_XIW0]: early signs of a US manufacturing renaissance? * On the Iran War, James E. Thorne says Iran is unraveling, not winning [https://x.com/DrJStrategy/status/2046004147271376918], and discusses the implications of this war. * Michael Green has a catch-all post [https://www.yesigiveafig.com/p/an-unexpected-update] discussing Iran War, taking non-alarmist angle on crude oil outlook, the divergent outlook in the US for Services (negative) relative to manufacturing (positive) and more. (One-off free post option if you haven't subscribed yet)   About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/]. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

What now after the "biblical vol reset"?

Today, a look at the US market completing one of its most remarkable comebacks ever as it ramped off recently lows to hit new all time highs in such quick order, even as high oil prices linger. We note the types of names that advanced and the lack of market breadth, wondering how the market will develop from here now that volatility has been crushed and with the heart of earnings season on tap over the next two weeks. Also, a look at the remaining questions over Iran, latest action in currencies and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack [https://johnjhardy.substack.com/] (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here [https://www.home.saxo/insights]. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com [marketcall@saxobank.com] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo [http://goto.saxo/MarketCallSignup]. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic [https://soundcloud.com/ashamaluevmusic] DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.