The CPTPP Podcast - 19: The CPTPP Can Avoid One Step Back

The CPTPP Podcast - 19: The CPTPP Can Avoid One Step Back

Just some written links below; voice back next week. From earlier in June… The Day in Trade: New Trump tariffs announced, EU and CPTPP prepare anti-tariff alliance and customs intermediary standard released https://www.export.org.uk/insights/trade-news/the-day-in-trade-new-trump-tariffs-announced-eu-and-cptpp-prepare-anti-tariff-alliance-and-customs-intermediary-standard-released/ [https://www.export.org.uk/insights/trade-news/the-day-in-trade-new-trump-tariffs-announced-eu-and-cptpp-prepare-anti-tariff-alliance-and-customs-intermediary-standard-released/] But #1 - Like the CPTPP after the U.S. exit from TPP, the next phase of regional security may be shaped not only by U.S. design, but by what U.S. allies and partners build when Washington moves one step back. https://thediplomat.com/2026/06/what-shangri-la-2026-revealed-about-the-future-regional-order/ [https://thediplomat.com/2026/06/what-shangri-la-2026-revealed-about-the-future-regional-order/] But #2 - (Good link re current and potential future CPTPP members) https://x.com/Montaldo_Pablo/status/2062193169010217421 [https://x.com/Montaldo_Pablo/status/2062193169010217421] Upcoming new members… Costa Rica and CPTPP. What’s happened and what’s next? https://www.canninghouse.org/canning-insights/costa-rica-and-cptpp-whats-happened-and-whats-next [https://www.canninghouse.org/canning-insights/costa-rica-and-cptpp-whats-happened-and-whats-next] …and ones that are hoping to be one: Argentina formalized its intention to join the CPTPP, the Pacific mega-trade bloc Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno delivered a formal note in Paris to New Zealand's Trade Minister, Todd McClay, requesting Argentina's entry into the CPTPP. The government seeks to accelerate its trade liberalization strategy and move closer to an agreement that brings together economies from Asia, Oceania, and the Americas. According to the CPTPP procedure, interested countries must formally notify New Zealand, which acts as the treaty's depositary. The CPTPP Commission then decides whether to open the accession process and, if so, forms a working group to negotiate the terms of accession. Although full accession may require years of negotiation, the decision signals a complete shift in Argentina's trade policy. The country has not yet joined the CPTPP, but it has formalized its willingness to participate in one of the agreements that govern much of Pacific trade. https://www.diariovoces.com.ar/internacionales/argentina-formalizo-su-intencion-de-ingresar-al-cptpp-el-megabloque-comercial-del-pacifico/ [https://www.diariovoces.com.ar/internacionales/argentina-formalizo-su-intencion-de-ingresar-al-cptpp-el-megabloque-comercial-del-pacifico/] But the real upcoming CPTPP focus surely still could be China (and/or Taiwan): Japan could also be more forward-looking on China’s interest in joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), encouraging China to undertake the economic reforms needed to meet CPTPP standards on labour rights, environmental protection, digital trade and state-owned enterprises. This would help both China and Taiwan join the CPTPP—facilitating a resolution of the Taiwan question through dialogue rather than military coercion. https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/06/03/japan-cant-hedge-against-trump-without-stabilising-relations-with-china/ [https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/06/03/japan-cant-hedge-against-trump-without-stabilising-relations-with-china/] Trade and related future focus much more than industrial goods etc. Upcoming #1…Peru investment chat at 1400 hours London time on 9th June will be interesting https://www.canninghouse.org/events/election-analysis-webinar-peru [https://www.canninghouse.org/events/election-analysis-webinar-peru] Upcoming #2 - To discuss trade and trade imbalances at the G7 meeting June 15th 17th Trade is never simple but important not to be believe in mercantilism

The CPTPP Podcast - 18: No Words, Just Read (and think)

Podcast 18 - No Words, Just Read (and think) Joint Statement by the Heads of the IEA, IMF, World Bank, and WTO The Heads of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Group and World Trade Organization met on May 28 as part of the high-level coordination group established in April to maximise their institutions' response to the energy, trade, and economic impacts of the war in the Middle East. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news26_e/dgno_29may26_396_e.htm [https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news26_e/dgno_29may26_396_e.htm] Back next week.

The CPTPP Podcast: Podcast 17 - CPTPP is ‘More Than Just Exporting’

Show notes below: APEC and CPTPP matters… It was revealed on the 16th May that China, the chair of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Trade Ministers' Meeting to be held in Suzhou, China on the 22nd and 23rd, is planning to host events related to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). China is inviting member countries without their consent, even though they are not CPTPP members. From ASEAN talking about the RCEP and the CPTPP commonsense in working together more… Cambodia calls for rules-based multilateral trading system in China meet Cambodia Friday underscored the importance of strengthening the rules-based multilateral trading system during extensive discussions with members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), in Suzhou city, Jiangsu province, People’s Republic of China. https://khmertimeskh.com/501904259/kingdom-calls-for-rules-based-multilateral-trading-system-in-china-meet/ [https://khmertimeskh.com/501904259/kingdom-calls-for-rules-based-multilateral-trading-system-in-china-meet/] But interesting to read: Interesting East Asia Forum article just out: https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/05/26/a-middle-power-agenda-for-the-global-trading-system/ [https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/05/26/a-middle-power-agenda-for-the-global-trading-system/] And learn more about the CPTPP which is ‘More Than Just Exporting’ https://canadapr.vn/dinh-cu-canada-dien-dau-tu/cptpp-canada [https://canadapr.vn/dinh-cu-canada-dien-dau-tu/cptpp-canada] Elsewhere… Japan-Korea Business Leaders Conference urges South Korea to join the TPP; also proposes simplifying immigration procedures. In 2021, the Moon Jae-in administration in South Korea announced it was considering joining the CPTPP. However, due to domestic opposition and other factors, a formal application has not yet been submitted. https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA206ZE0Q6A520C2000000/ [https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA206ZE0Q6A520C2000000/] Philippines eyes Japan endorsement for CPTPP bid during Marcos visit The Philippines is looking to secure an endorsement from Japan to support its bid to become a member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) free trade agreement (FTA) during President Marcos’ upcoming state visit to Tokyo. If the Philippines manages to become a CPTPP member, this would provide unprecedented market access for the country’s exports to the bloc’s members, including Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, and the United Kingdom (UK). https://mb.com.ph/2026/05/21/philippines-eyes-japan-endorsement-for-cptpp-bid-during-marcos-visit [https://mb.com.ph/2026/05/21/philippines-eyes-japan-endorsement-for-cptpp-bid-during-marcos-visit] The Indonesian Ministry of Trade support from members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) And currently, Indonesia is also continuing discussions with CPTPP member countries. "Indonesia has also received support from several members for the formation of an Accession Working Group for Indonesia," he concluded. https://sinpo.id/detail/121020/ri-tekankan-pentingnya-dukungan-rcep-cptpp-untuk-jaga-stabilitas-ekonomi-kawasan [https://sinpo.id/detail/121020/ri-tekankan-pentingnya-dukungan-rcep-cptpp-untuk-jaga-stabilitas-ekonomi-kawasan] As for Uruguay, some angst… Certain parts of the Uruguay trade union movement cautious about joining the CPTPP https://www.agesor.com.uy/noticia.php?id=84675 [https://www.agesor.com.uy/noticia.php?id=84675] …but also some further growth hopes: Orsi's government supports Argentina's bid to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership What four years ago appeared to be an irreconcilable internal front in Mercosur has now become a card in favor of the government of Yamandú Orsi as it moves forward with joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Uruguay had already received the backing of Argentine Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno at the end of last year for having made concrete progress toward joining the CPTPP. “Today the world demands agility in trade matters. In this context, Uruguay’s decision to promote its accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership is a strong expression of this trend ,” said Javier Milei’s minister to his Mercosur counterparts. The Uruguayan government sees Argentina as a tangible demonstration that Uruguay's eventual entry into the CPTPP will not come at the expense of a strained Mercosur , and therefore they are confident that their application for membership can benefit the country in its quest to secure definitive membership. https://www.larepublica.co/globoeconomia/gobierno-de-orsi-respalda-a-argentina-para-que-solicite-su-ingreso-al-acuerdo-transpacifico-4395372?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1779204070 [https://www.larepublica.co/globoeconomia/gobierno-de-orsi-respalda-a-argentina-para-que-solicite-su-ingreso-al-acuerdo-transpacifico-4395372?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1779204070]

The CPTPP Podcast - 16: Dull Donald but Opportunist APEC?

Podcast show notes and links are below. Thanks for listening! The G2 meetings was interesting! Meanwhile… China, a non-member of the TPP, is planning related events and inviting various countries without their consent, raising concerns about its intentions. China, the chair of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Trade Ministers' Meeting to be held in Suzhou, China on the 22nd and 23rd, is planning to host events related to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Amidst the United States' shift towards protectionism, the CPTPP is gaining prominence as a multilateral framework that will achieve a high level of trade liberalization. China is likely seeking to find a way to join the CPTPP and expand its influence within the multilateral trading system in the region. https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2026051600118&g=eco [https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2026051600118&g=eco] Remember despite many similar APEC and CPTPP members (Japan, Australia, Canada, Vietnam, Mexico, New Zealand, Chile, Peru + more)… …one is loose and one is more legally free trade + more binding - which is why the US bailed from the latter (but names like the UK joined). China interesting! And thinking again more globally about the CPTPP, two recent great East Asia Forum articles: CPTPP–EU cooperation can set the pace for global trade Outside these sensitive areas, CPTPP–EU rules and cooperation mechanisms can evolve and spread through constructive institutional competition with other regional frameworks, CPTPP accession and issue-specific plurilateral arrangements within the WTO. The inaugural CPTPP–ASEAN Trade and Investment Dialogue, launched in November 2025 alongside the CPTPP–EU dialogue, offers one example for how linkages can be gradually built to widen workable rules through multiple, open pathways. To preserve speed, CPTPP-EU cooperation should also use soft-law instruments such as MoUs, action plans and joint principles where appropriate, rather than relying only on legally binding agreements that may require lengthy domestic ratification. CPTPP–EU cooperation alone cannot save the trading order. But countries that value openness and multilateralism can still lead the formation of next-generation trade rules. To defend the WTO, its supporters can no longer rely on the WTO alone. https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/05/16/cptpp-eu-cooperation-can-set-the-pace-for-global-trade/ [https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/05/16/cptpp-eu-cooperation-can-set-the-pace-for-global-trade/] Middle powers should look to East Asia https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/05/17/middle-powers-should-look-to-east-asia/ [https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/05/17/middle-powers-should-look-to-east-asia/] Yes, am looking forward to: Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Trade Ministers' Meeting to be held in Suzhou, China on the 22nd and 23rd May meeting Not that there is not plenty of matters to talk about just amongst APEC member but also EU/China discussions: A sinking ship? Why the EU and China could be heading for a trade war Clashes at a conference in Chinese capital reflect wider tensions that threaten to descend into an economic conflict “Europe needs the Chinese market to help its flagging economy and secure key inputs, and China needs the EU market even more than ever, as its home market flatlines and its access to the US market shrinks. “Neither can fight on two fronts at once. And as [Chinese strategist] Sun Tzu famously said, the smartest way to win a victory is without having to fight. China knows it has time on its side.” https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3353867/sinking-ship-why-eu-and-china-could-be-heading-trade-war?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage [https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3353867/sinking-ship-why-eu-and-china-could-be-heading-trade-war?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage] As for another (more likely re a 2026 announcement akin to Costa Rica?) Uruguay is making progress towards joining the CPTPP with the first meeting of the working group "We had a series of bilateral meetings at the senior official level with all member countries plus a plenary presentation in which Uruguay made an initial presentation of the reasons for its interest in joining the CPTPP," explained Deputy Foreign Minister Valeria Csukasi, who participated in the meeting held in London, to the EFE news agency. https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/05/13/uruguay-avanza-en-su-adhesion-al-cptpp-con-la-primera-reunion-del-grupo-de-trabajo/ [https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/05/13/uruguay-avanza-en-su-adhesion-al-cptpp-con-la-primera-reunion-del-grupo-de-trabajo/] Uruguay accelerates its accession to the CPTPP and assures that “there are no doubts” about compliance with the commitments For the Uruguayan government, joining the CPTPP represents a strategic opportunity to diversify markets and deepen the country's international integration, especially towards the Asia-Pacific region. https://www.comexlatam.com/uruguay-acelera-su-adhesion-al-cptpp-y-asegura-que-no-hay-dudas-sobre-el-cumplimiento-de-los-compromisos/ [https://www.comexlatam.com/uruguay-acelera-su-adhesion-al-cptpp-y-asegura-que-no-hay-dudas-sobre-el-cumplimiento-de-los-compromisos/] And finally… Will South Korea move towards the TPP? This will be a crucial test after the unified local elections. In response, the 12 countries participating in the CPTPP recently reached a broad agreement on Costa Rica's accession. Negotiations with Uruguay are also nearing completion, while Indonesia, the Philippines, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are awaiting the start of negotiations. https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQODK050T80V00C26A5000000/?n_cid=dsapp_share_android [https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQODK050T80V00C26A5000000/?n_cid=dsapp_share_android] Donald, by contrast, where art though (and the broader US) with regards to freer trade and hence the CPTPP and related?! Yes, am looking forward to: Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Trade Ministers' Meeting to be held in Suzhou, China on the 22nd and 23rd May meeting

The CPTPP Podcast - 15: Hello Costa Rica!

All the shownotes - as promised - are below. Contact me at chris.bailey@financialorbit.com if you have any questions or thoughts! Speak to you next week. Over the last week… Costa Rica becomes 13th member of CPTPP It becomes the second nation to accede to the CPTPP outside the original membership, following the United Kingdom. Entry isn’t expected until the second half of 2027, but trade minister Todd McClay said it meant over 94 percent of New Zealand’s exports to Costa Rica would be duty-free from day one, and 99 percent within ten years. Along with New Zealand, the other members of the agreement are Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam. China, Taiwan, Ecuador, Uruguay, Ukraine, Indonesia, Philippines, United Arab Emirates, and Cambodia have all applied to join the agreement. Worth reading https://www.bilaterals.org/?costa-rica-becomes-13th-member-of [https://www.bilaterals.org/?costa-rica-becomes-13th-member-of] https://ukpoliticsdecoded.uk/decoded-blog/costa-rica-joins-cptpp-uk-trade-bloc-may-2026.html [https://ukpoliticsdecoded.uk/decoded-blog/costa-rica-joins-cptpp-uk-trade-bloc-may-2026.html] CPTPP reaches key agreement on Costa Rica's accession to the bloc https://logistica360.pe/cptpp-logra-acuerdo-clave-en-adhesion-de-costa-rica-al-bloque/ [https://logistica360.pe/cptpp-logra-acuerdo-clave-en-adhesion-de-costa-rica-al-bloque/] https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/594442/costa-rica-becomes-13th-member-of-cptpp [https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/594442/costa-rica-becomes-13th-member-of-cptpp] Elsewhere in the world….excellent G Zero Media report Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney attended a meeting of the European Political Community in Armenia this weekend, a first by the leader of a non-European country. He was invited to discuss common interests in trade, energy, and security. In a speech that echoed his address to the World Economic Forum in Davos two months earlier, Carney called on middle powers, including Canada and European nations, to work together in the wake of disruption of the established world order — implicitly pointing to the United States. “It’s my strong personal view that the international order will be rebuilt,” he told the crowd in Yerevan, “but it will be rebuilt out of Europe.” So while it’s unlikely that Canada will definitively swap Washington for Brussels, a deeper transatlantic partnership appears to be in the cards — and a popular option on both sides of the pond. What shape that takes might depend on the fate of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) this summer. Should that trade deal not be renegotiated by July 1, Canada — and Carney — will feel even greater pressure to diversify trade and shore up alliances elsewhere. https://www.gzeromedia.com/news/analysis/as-ties-with-the-us-fray-canada-looks-across-the-atlantic [https://www.gzeromedia.com/news/analysis/as-ties-with-the-us-fray-canada-looks-across-the-atlantic] And mentioning Canada, beef, the CPTPP and the Mercosur deals… Beef sector warns new trade deals may undercut Canadian producers As Canada moves ahead with trade agreements like the CPTPP and potential Mercosur deal, beef industry representatives are raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of the sector. Yes, on BBC radio today, a story which effectively highlights again whilst CPTPP member Chile has lots of positive trade angles that are attracting many Argentian consumers / spenders: Every year, hundreds of thousands of Argentineans cross the Andes looking for bargains. We'll be finding out why, and if it's a trend that's going to last. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct8gfr [https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct8gfr] A spokesperson for International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu said they’re committed to working with the industry to address barriers to the UK market, but noted that Canadian beef exports to CPTPP markets saw a 149.5% increase in beef exports between 2018 and 2025, from $338 million to $842 million. “The U.K.’s accession will integrate another major G7 economy into the CPTPP framework and regional supply chains, providing greater certainty and further opportunities for Canadian exporters, including our farmers, to diversity trade and investment,” they said. https://www.ipolitics.ca/2026/05/06/beef-sector-warns-new-trade-deals-may-undercut-canadian-producers/ [https://www.ipolitics.ca/2026/05/06/beef-sector-warns-new-trade-deals-may-undercut-canadian-producers/] We await for the Trump / Xi meeting on 14th/15th May. Lots to discuss re politics and trade. I keep on hearing mentions of the Board of Trade. Nice ‘Board of Trade, Ahoy’ piece here… https://chinaarticles.substack.com/p/board-of-trade-ahoy [https://chinaarticles.substack.com/p/board-of-trade-ahoy] …but it makes me think about the ‘Board of Peace’ and related Trump seems to want to chair. Interesting to be reminded that back in March this year… In March of this year, Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong stated at the Boao Forum that Singapore "supports and welcomes China to join the CPTPP." This prompts me to reflect on why Taiwan has consistently struggled to achieve substantial breakthroughs in regional economic integration, a matter of vital economic importance. https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20260510002376-262104?chdtv#disqus_thread [https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20260510002376-262104?chdtv#disqus_thread] My own thoughts: Watch the upcoming Trump/Xi trade (and more) discussions later this week. The former is talking more about a 'Board of Trade', which possibly is an early attempt to create an alternative to the WTO. Simultaneously, some recent CPTPP/EU discussions provide an alternative trade perspective. Will be interesting to see if China gives any opinions on all this; whilst the US can try to be isolationist if it wishes (not wise economically, but the US have the best scope to be isolationist of any G20 country), this is not true of China, Europe, the average CPTPP member etc. - and Taiwan too. Maybe some early stage answers by the end of this month. And talking about the WTO The WTO has opened online registration for this year's Public Forum, titled Powering the Future, which will take place at the WTO premises in Geneva from 15 to 17 September. It has also launched a call for proposals for the event, which this year will focus on services trade. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news26_e/pfor_30apr26_370_e.htm [https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news26_e/pfor_30apr26_370_e.htm] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsuuO1Y1XVM [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsuuO1Y1XVM] (and also on the WTO…as per some of the above) At a meeting of the Committee on Balance-of-Payments Restrictions held on 5 May, WTO members discussed the United States' new notification regarding the imposition of import surcharges to address the country's serious balance-of-payments deficits. The United States said the surcharges took effect on 24 February 2026 and will expire on 24 July 2026, unless extended by an act of Congress. Members welcomed the transparency of the United States and its readiness to engage in consultations in line with WTO rules. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news26_e/bop_05may26_385_e.htm [https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news26_e/bop_05may26_385_e.htm] )