AI Economics Research Podcast

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS: How Combining Recursive and Rolling Forecasts Boosts Accuracy (Explained)

This episode dives into a Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis research paper that examines how to make economic forecasts more accurate, particularly in an environment of structural change. We break down how combining "recursive" (using all available data) and "rolling" (using only recent data) forecasting methods can significantly improve prediction quality. Learn about this innovative strategy and share your feedback at feedback@econpod.org, or read the full paper at https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/9611/original. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS Improving Forecast Accuracy by Combining Recursive and Rolling - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2008.028 Keywords: forecasting, macroeconomics, structural change, central banking, model averaging, forecast accuracy

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: OECD: Predicting Recessions – Why 'Wisdom of Crowds' Rivals Machine Learning (Explained)

This episode delves into an OECD research paper that challenges conventional wisdom on forecasting recessions. We explore how a "wisdom of crowds" approach, averaging predictions from multiple simple models, can be as effective as advanced machine learning techniques like Random Forests for predicting economic downturns in OECD countries. Do you have thoughts on the best forecasting methods? Share them with us at feedback@econpod.org. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Harnessing the wisdom - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/12/harnessing-the-wisdom-of-crowds-to-assess-recession-risks-in-oecd-countries_d197200d/46880adc-en.pdf Keywords: Recession, Economic Forecasting, Macroeconomics, Machine Learning, Wisdom of Crowds, OECD

Bank of England: Uncovering 'Non-Standard Errors' – How Researcher Choices Sway Economic Results (Explained)

This episode explains a Bank of England Staff Working Paper, "Non-standard errors," by Albert J Menkveld et al., exploring how variations in researcher choices introduce significant "non-standard errors" into scientific findings. We break down their study of 164 teams testing hypotheses on the same data, revealing these errors are substantial, decrease with peer feedback, and are often underestimated by participants. Have thoughts or questions on how researcher bias impacts economic insights? Send them to feedback@econpod.org. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Keywords: non-standard errors, research methodology, scientific uncertainty, economics research, central banking, data analysis

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports: Federal Reserve: How to Guarantee Honest Information Disclosure from Regulators? Cryptography is Key (Explained)

This episode dives into a Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report that explores a critical challenge in information disclosure: how to ensure a sender, like a bank regulator, can truly commit to a disclosure rule without manipulating signals after the fact. We'll break down how the paper introduces 'Receiver-Private Certified Bayesian Persuasion,' revealing why cryptography, specifically secure two-party computation, is not just a tool but a necessary condition to prevent ex-post information suppression in economic settings like bank stress tests. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: MAY 2026 and Cryptography Bayesian Persuasion and Cryptography - Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports https://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1194 Keywords: central banking, financial stability, information disclosure, stress testing, cryptography, economic commitment

Bank of England: How UK Recessions Make Negative Income Shocks More Likely (Explained)

This episode breaks down a new Bank of England research paper that explores how economic cycles, like recessions, impact the stability of earnings for UK households. It reveals that during downturns, negative income shocks become more frequent, even if the overall spread of income changes remains similar, and introduces a new model to track these crucial dynamics for policymakers. Tune in to understand why this matters for financial stability and macroeconomic policy, and share your thoughts with us at feedback@econpod.org. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Modelling income risk dynamics in - Bank of England https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2025/modelling-income-risk-dynamics-in-the-uk-a-parametric-approach.pdf Keywords: Income Risk, UK Economy, Macroeconomics, Financial Stability, Central Banking, Earnings Dynamics