Sharp China with Bill Bishop

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus [https://stratechery.passport.online/member/plan/4ycW4SE71Cy6ryrijywbTG] for $15/month or $150/year. ---------------------------------------- Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/] ---------------------------------------- On today's show Andrew and Bill gather on short notice with reactions to Monday's news of a deal between the U.S. and China to significantly reduce tariffs for ninety days, while establishing a formal dialogue mechanism to discuss trade and economic issues. Topics include: Why a pause made sense for both sides, Trump's reference to the PRC and its "non-monetary barriers," the wins and opportunities that the PRC may see after the past several days, and the risks to the U.S. side as the rest of the world processes the past six weeks of policy choices. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm [email@sharpchina.fm] ---------------------------------------- @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@SharpTechPodcast] @Stratechery Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Stratechery] ---------------------------------------- Surprise US-China trade de-escalation; Rare earths; National security white paper; China-Latin America Forum in Beijing — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/surprise-us-china-trade-de-escalation] Surprise U.S.-China Trade Deal Gives Global Economy Reprieve — Wall Street Journal [https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/surprise-u-s-china-trade-deal-gives-global-economy-a-big-reprieve-b486da7b?st=gHVW7t] Trump Says China Agreed to Roll Back Non-Tariff Barriers — Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-12/trump-says-he-may-speak-to-xi-this-week-after-tariffs-lowered] Who blinked first? How the US and China broke their trade deadlock — Financial Times [https://www.ft.com/content/a541bd15-86b2-4e20-868b-c9ecca57ec09] US-UK trade deal squeezes China supply chains — Financial Times [https://www.ft.com/content/3eb31a1c-a19e-480b-a970-2629c714363c]

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus [https://stratechery.passport.online/member/plan/4ycW4SE71Cy6ryrijywbTG] for $15/month or $150/year. ---------------------------------------- Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/] ---------------------------------------- On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the US and PRC are sending representatives to Switzerland to discuss trade talks this weekend. Topics include: Why expectations should be set low, the week of signs that the PRC was willing to engage, questions about cooperating on fentanyl, and the latest measures to loosen monetary policy in Beijing. From there: An email about Chinese data spawns a conversation about increasing data opacity, and challenges for Westerners and the party alike. At the end: Thoughts on the PRC’s relationship to Russia as Xi Jinping heads to Moscow, the consequences (or lack thereof) for the PRC’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, and reactions to a pair of CIA videos recruiting disaffected party members. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm [email@sharpchina.fm] ---------------------------------------- @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@SharpTechPodcast] @Stratechery Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Stratechery] ---------------------------------------- To subscribe to Stratechery Plus, click here [https://stratechery.com/stratechery-plus/]. To subscribe to Sinocism, click here [https://sinocism.com/about]. ---------------------------------------- US-China trade talks; Xi arrives in Russia; Xi's history lesson; Rate cuts and moderately more supportive policies — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/us-china-trade-talks-xi-arrives-in] Ministry of Commerce Spokesperson Answers Reporters’ Questions on China–U.S. High-Level Economic and Trade Talk — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/ministry-of-commerce-spokesperson] US-China Trade Talks to Start This Week as Tariffs Start to Bite — Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-06/bessent-greer-to-meet-with-china-to-start-trade-talks-this-week?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=5KSwFgaY] US Treasury's Bessent says China 'negotiations' to start Saturday without Navarro — Reuters [https://www.reuters.com/world/us-treasurys-bessent-says-china-negotiations-start-saturday-without-navarro-2025-05-07/] As China Looks for Way Out of U.S. Trade Deadlock, Fentanyl Could Be Key — New York Times [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/03/world/asia/us-china-tariffs-fentanyl.html] How Bad Is China’s Economy? The Data Needed to Answer Is Vanishing — Wall Street Journal [https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-economy-data-missing-096cac9a] Xi Jinping’s Moscow visit highlights China’s strategic vulnerabilities — Brookings [https://www.brookings.edu/articles/xi-jinpings-moscow-visit-highlights-chinas-strategic-vulnerabilities/] Full text of Xi's signed article in Russian media — State Council [https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202505/07/content_WS681b1a10c6d0868f4e8f251a.html] Exclusive — Rubio Details How Trump Going on Offense Against China’s Belt and Road Initiative: ‘Big Story of 21st Century U.S.-China Relations’ — Breitbart [https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/02/25/exclusive-rubio-details-trump-offense-china-belt-road-initiative/] CIA looks to recruit new Chinese spies with social media videos — Financial Times [https://www.ft.com/content/762025aa-52f1-42d0-828c-87ba17eb53bd] 选择合作的原因：成为命运的主宰者 — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fU2T8RKAzDg]

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus [https://stratechery.passport.online/member/plan/4ycW4SE71Cy6ryrijywbTG] for $15/month or $150/year. ---------------------------------------- Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/] ---------------------------------------- On today’s show Andrew and Bill take stock of the trade war one month after “Liberation Day.” Topics include: Domestic messaging on “struggle” and external promises to never kneel down, the risks facing the PRC as US tariffs threaten to compound overcapacity controversies and invite heightened scrutiny around the world, Week 3 of speculation on whether the US and China are negotiating on trade, and why talk of a resolution and return to the March status quo seems increasingly unrealistic. At the end: The April Politburo meeting reflects both caution and confidence, a study session on AI spells bad news for Nvidia, thoughts on Apple’s story in China as the company tries to relocate US iPhone assembly to India, and Netflix gets the last laugh 15 years after being rebuffed by PRC censors. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm [email@sharpchina.fm] ---------------------------------------- @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@SharpTechPodcast] @Stratechery Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Stratechery] ---------------------------------------- Xi inspects Shanghai, talks AI and Global South; "不跪/Never kneel down"; AI; Jack Ma and Huang Youlong — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/xi-inspects-shanghai-talks-ai-and] April Politburo Study Session on AI is bad news for Nvidia — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/april-politburo-study-session-on] Today, it is necessary to revisit On Protracted War. — Beijing Daily [https://vivid-green-408.notion.site/Today-it-is-necessary-to-revisit-On-Protracted-War-1e384ece41d780709ea3f1b51e70ac29] Never Kneel Down — Ministry of Foreign Affairs on X [https://x.com/mfa_china/status/1917069881142612278] China exempts some goods from US tariffs — Reuters [https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-considers-exempting-some-goods-us-tariffs-source-says-2025-04-25/] US tariffs could endanger 16 million export jobs in China: Goldman Sachs — SCMP [https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3308140/us-tariffs-could-endanger-16-million-export-jobs-china-goldman-sachs] Emerging markets set to become battlegrounds in trade war — Financial Times [https://www.ft.com/content/ff1f35b9-2ccf-4247-9bcd-a9c931b63c5b] Trump says Xi called him, lays out trade and other deal plans in Time interview — Reuters [https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-xi-called-him-lays-out-trade-other-deal-plans-time-interview-2025-04-25/] Exclusive: Trump officials eye changes to Biden's AI chip export rule, sources say — Reuters [https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-officials-eye-changes-bidens-ai-chip-export-rule-sources-say-2025-04-29/] Apple aims to source all US iPhones from India in pivot away from China — Financial Times [https://www.ft.com/content/c2be45b8-cfad-4cbb-9a1a-bfd0626be372] Apple’s India Manufacturing Push Faces Spoilers, Including China — The Information [https://www.theinformation.com/articles/apples-india-manufacturing-push-faces-spoilers-including-china] Apple in China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company — Patrick McGee [https://www.amazon.com/Apple-China-Capture-Greatest-Company/dp/1668053373] Netflix Co-CEO Says They’re Not in China Because ‘Not a Single Episode’ Cleared the Censorship Board — IndieWire [https://www.indiewire.com/news/business/ted-sarandos-china-censorship-board-1235117902/]

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus [https://stratechery.passport.online/member/plan/4ycW4SE71Cy6ryrijywbTG] for $15/month or $150/year. ---------------------------------------- Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/] ---------------------------------------- On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Tuesday’s signals that the Trump administration may seek to deescalate its trade war, why Beijing may see it as confirmation that their patient approach is working, and questions about what’s next as the Trump messaging on trade changes by the day. From there: The PRC warns countries about cooperating with the US, and why the apparent US flip-flopping likely hurts their cause with third-party countries. At the end: A dispatch from Yiwu, more on PRC messages to third-party countries, and a listener’s note on Trump’s caustic approach to Canada. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm [email@sharpchina.fm] ---------------------------------------- @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@SharpTechPodcast] @Stratechery Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Stratechery] ---------------------------------------- Appeasement of the US is not an option; Wang Yi on Xi's trip; Private economy law; More pilots for service sector opening — Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/p/appeasement-of-the-us-is-not-an-option] Bessent Expects Tariff Standoff With China to De-Escalate — Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-22/bessent-sees-de-escalation-with-china-situation-unsustainable?sref=5KSwFgaY] US markets rally as Treasury secretary says China trade war is ‘unsustainable’ — Financial Times [https://www.ft.com/content/780cbf25-5f0a-48c3-a80e-cf97f7b71fd7] China warns countries against striking trade deals with US at its expense — Reuters [https://www.reuters.com/world/china-opposes-any-deals-between-us-other-nations-its-expense-2025-04-21/] China urges Japan to help fight US tariffs together, Kyodo reports — Reuters [https://www.reuters.com/markets/emerging/china-urges-japan-help-fight-us-tariffs-together-kyodo-reports-2025-04-22/] Wang Yi urges stronger China-Austria ties, slams U.S. tariffs — CGTN [https://news.cgtn.com/news/2025-04-22/Wang-Yi-urges-stronger-China-Austria-ties-slams-U-S-tariffs-1CMLrEgm9lS/p.html] Wang Yi holds phone call with UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy, stressing shared responsibility to uphold multilateral trade system — Global Times [https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202504/1332624.shtml] ‘You Think We’re Afraid of America?’ — The Atlantic [https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/04/chinese-manufacturers-trade-war/682520/] 3 takeaways from my visit to Yiwu, the frontlines of the trade war — Chang Che [https://changche.substack.com/p/3-takeaways-from-my-visit-to-yiwu] Blame Canada - South Park — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOR38552MJA]

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus [https://stratechery.passport.online/member/plan/4ycW4SE71Cy6ryrijywbTG] for $15/month or $150/year. ---------------------------------------- Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism [https://sinocism.com/] ---------------------------------------- On today's show Andrew and Bill return to discuss the state of the trade war two weeks after “Liberation Day” and the imposition of a 145% tariff rate on PRC goods. Topics include: Reports of a Trump Admin strategy to isolate the PRC, daily talk of a deal with China from President Trump, himself, signals from the PRC side that they may be willing to negotiate, and the PRC cancels orders of Boeing planes. From there: A raft of news on Nvidia as the U.S. restricts the export of H20 chips to China, Jensen Huang visits Beijing for an appearance with He Lifeng, and questions for the future of Nvidia and U.S. chip policies more generally. At the end: China restricts the export of rare earths to the U.S., rare earths as a keystone to understanding broader U.S. supply chain challenges, "Red and Expert" anxiety 60 years later, and TikTok faces new uncertainty in the wake of the tariffs. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm [email@sharpchina.fm] ---------------------------------------- @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@SharpTechPodcast] @Stratechery Channel — YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/@Stratechery] ---------------------------------------- U.S. Plans to Use Tariff Negotiations to Isolate China — Wall Street Journal [https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/u-s-plans-to-use-tariff-negotiations-to-isolate-china-177d1528] Xi Fights Trump’s Tariffs With Global Charm Offensive — Wall Street Journal [https://www.wsj.com/world/china/xi-fights-trumps-tariffs-with-global-charm-offensive-9b4185a8] China Open to Talks If US Shows Respect, Names Point Person — Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/china-open-to-talks-if-trump-shows-respect-names-point-person?srnd=homepage-uk&sref=5KSwFgaY] China replaces top international trade negotiator as talks with Washington stall — CNBC [https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/china-replaces-top-trade-negotiating-official-as-trade-talks-with-washington-stalls-.html] Nvidia faces $5.5 billion charge as US restricts chip sales to China — Reuters [https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-expects-up-55-billion-charge-first-quarter-2025-04-15/] Washington Takes Aim at DeepSeek and Its American Chip Supplier, Nvidia — New York Times [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/16/technology/nvidia-deepseek-china-ai-trump.html] Nvidia chief Jensen Huang flies to Beijing for talks — Financial Times [https://www.ft.com/content/7a49186c-8e51-4540-affe-15239c0914e3] Post from E-China News — X [https://x.com/Echinanews/status/1912812262848663942] Post from the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party — X [https://x.com/committeeonccp/status/1912876619229778104] Nvidia H20 Restricted in China, The Huawei CloudMatrix 384, Whither Chip Controls — Stratechery [https://stratechery.com/2025/nvidia-h20-restricted-in-china-the-huawei-cloudmatrix-384-whither-chip-controls/] Remarks by Director Kratsios at the Endless Frontiers Retreat — The White House [https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/04/8716/] China Halts Critical Exports as Trade War Intensifies — New York Times [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/business/china-rare-earths-exports.html]