Foreign Policy Live

Kurt Campbell on Trump’s China Ambiguity

U.S. President Donald Trump’s China policy often seems deliberately ambiguous. Is that a virtue or a flaw? Kurt Campbell is a longtime China watcher who rose up to run Asia policy under the Biden administration. He was the original architect of the so-called “pivot to Asia” during the Obama administration. He joins FP Live to discuss Trump, former U.S. President Joe Biden, and the world’s most important bilateral relationship.   Plus, One Thing from Ravi on Trump’s Board of Peace. ⁠Aaron David Miller: Billions in Pledges Expected for Trump’s Board of Peace but Doubts Persist⁠ [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/18/billions-in-pledges-expected-for-trumps-board-of-peace-but-doubts-persist/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=YmlsbGlvbnMtaW4tcGxlZGdlcy1leHBlY3RlZC1mb3ItdHJ1bXBzLWJvYXJkLW9mLXBlYWNlLWJ1dC1kb3VidHMtcGVyc2lzdA==&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] ⁠Mira Rapp-Hooper and Ely Ratner: Washington’s Silence in Asia Is a Gift to Beijing⁠ [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/28/trump-china-japan-taiwan-threats/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtY2hpbmEtamFwYW4tdGFpd2FuLXRocmVhdHM=&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] ⁠New York Times: On China, Trump Is Rolling the Dice on America’s Future⁠ [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/28/opinion/trump-china-policy-xi.html] ⁠Foreign Affairs: The U.S.-China Crisis Waiting to Happen⁠ [https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/us-china-crisis-waiting-happen] ⁠A. Wess Mitchell: The Grand Strategy Behind Trump’s Foreign Policy⁠ [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/14/trump-western-hemisphere-national-security-strategy-geopolitics-china-russia-venezuela-greenland-spheres-of-influence/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtd2VzdGVybi1oZW1pc3BoZXJlLW5hdGlvbmFsLXNlY3VyaXR5LXN0cmF0ZWd5LWdlb3BvbGl0aWNzLWNoaW5hLXJ1c3NpYS12ZW5lenVlbGEtZ3JlZW5sYW5kLXNwaGVyZXMtb2YtaW5mbHVlbmNl&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] ⁠Craig Singleton: China Grapples with Trump’s Radical Use of Power⁠ [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/20/trump-china-venezuela-iran-us-military-intervention-power-geopolitics/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtY2hpbmEtdmVuZXp1ZWxhLWlyYW4tdXMtbWlsaXRhcnktaW50ZXJ2ZW50aW9uLXBvd2VyLWdlb3BvbGl0aWNz&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] ⁠Lili Pike: Did Biden Get China Right?⁠ [https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/06/biden-china-policy-competition-trade-semiconductors-trump/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=YmlkZW4tY2hpbmEtcG9saWN5LWNvbXBldGl0aW9uLXRyYWRlLXNlbWljb25kdWN0b3JzLXRydW1w&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Is the Nuclear Club Expanding?

Is the age of nuclear nonproliferation over? There are certainly worrying signs. New START, the main nuclear treaty between the United States and Russia, recently expired. China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal. Talks to bring Iran back to the negotiating table seem to be at an impasse. And one increasingly hears about the possibility of South Korea or Japan going nuclear. What can the world do in response? Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, sits down with Ravi Agrawal. Rebecca Lissner and Erin D. Dumbacher: The Pillars of the Global Nuclear Order Are Cracking [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/05/nuclear-proliferation-united-states-korea-poland-pakistan-deterrence/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=bnVjbGVhci1wcm9saWZlcmF0aW9uLXVuaXRlZC1zdGF0ZXMta29yZWEtcG9sYW5kLXBha2lzdGFuLWRldGVycmVuY2U=&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Decker Eveleth: The Real Risk After New START Isn’t Arms Racing [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/09/new-start-nuclear-arms-control-us-russia-treaty-negotiations/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=bmV3LXN0YXJ0LW51Y2xlYXItYXJtcy1jb250cm9sLXVzLXJ1c3NpYS10cmVhdHktbmVnb3RpYXRpb25z&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Fareed Zakaria: The Post-Cold War Nuclear Era Might Have Just Ended [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/09/cold-war-nuclear-new-start-treaty/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=Y29sZC13YXItbnVjbGVhci1uZXctc3RhcnQtdHJlYXR5&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: An Oil Deal for Trump Can Mean a Nuclear Deal for Iran [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/05/iran-trump-oman-nuclear-talks-oil-venezuela-deal/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi10cnVtcC1vbWFuLW51Y2xlYXItdGFsa3Mtb2lsLXZlbmV6dWVsYS1kZWFs&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

The “America First” Defense Strategy

The Pentagon’s policy chief Elbridge Colby recently called for a “NATO 3.0” [https://www.politico.eu/article/elbridge-colby-nato-europe-defense-spending/], stating that the United States would “continue to provide the U.S. extended nuclear deterrent” to Europe, but when it came to most defense matters, Europe would need to “assume primary responsibility.” Colby is the undersecretary of war for policy and joins FP Live host Ravi Agrawal at the annual Munich Security Conference. And in part two of this podcast, Colby and Agrawal were joined by four other guests: Richard Marles, the deputy prime minister and defense minister of Australia; Judith Collins, the minister of defense of New Zealand; Toshimitsu Motegi, the foreign minister of Japan; and David van Weel, the foreign minister of the Netherlands.  Plus, One Thing from Ravi on U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech at the Munich Security Conference.  Listen to Munich Moments on Apple [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/munich-moments/id1867203052] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/0iLO0L4BIhVtEcrWzhqalw?si=631a96a4b2de428d]. A transcript of U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s 2025 speech at the Munich Security Conference. [https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/18/vance-speech-munich-full-text-read-transcript-europe/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dmFuY2Utc3BlZWNoLW11bmljaC1mdWxsLXRleHQtcmVhZC10cmFuc2NyaXB0LWV1cm9wZQ==&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] A transcript of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 2026 speech at the Munich Security Conference [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/14/rubio-munich-security-conference-speech/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=cnViaW8tbXVuaWNoLXNlY3VyaXR5LWNvbmZlcmVuY2Utc3BlZWNo&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod]A transcript of Colby’s interview with Ravi [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/14/elbridge-colby-us-russia-nato-america-first/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=ZWxicmlkZ2UtY29sYnktdXMtcnVzc2lhLW5hdG8tYW1lcmljYS1maXJzdA==&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec] A collection of FP’s reporting and analysis from the Munich Security Conference [https://foreignpolicy.com/projects/munich-security-conference/?tpcc=fp_live] Matthew Kroenig: Two Cheers for the National Security Strategy [https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/11/national-security-strategy-trump-economic-political-democracy/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=bmF0aW9uYWwtc2VjdXJpdHktc3RyYXRlZ3ktdHJ1bXAtZWNvbm9taWMtcG9saXRpY2FsLWRlbW9jcmFjeQ==&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] A. Wess Mitchell: The Grand Strategy Behind Trump’s Foreign Policy [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/14/trump-western-hemisphere-national-security-strategy-geopolitics-china-russia-venezuela-greenland-spheres-of-influence/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtd2VzdGVybi1oZW1pc3BoZXJlLW5hdGlvbmFsLXNlY3VyaXR5LXN0cmF0ZWd5LWdlb3BvbGl0aWNzLWNoaW5hLXJ1c3NpYS12ZW5lenVlbGEtZ3JlZW5sYW5kLXNwaGVyZXMtb2YtaW5mbHVlbmNl&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

FP at MSC: How to Navigate a Trade War

U.S. tariffs have upended decades of trade policy, but new U.N. data [https://unctad.org/publication/global-trade-update-february-2026-who-wins-when-trade-policies-shift#:~:text=When%20tariff%20increases%20differ%20across,of%20about%202%20percentage%20points.] shows that the economies suffering most are those that can least afford a setback. At the Munich Security Conference (MSC), FP’s Ravi Agrawal hosted a panel on the trade wars, with policymakers on the front lines of these economic changes: Ngozi Okonjo Iweala, the director-general of the World Trade Organization; Finnish President Alexander Stubb; German Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil; and U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis.  Follow FP’s MSC coverage here. [https://foreignpolicy.com/projects/munich-security-conference/?tpcc=hp] Wendy Cutler: How Countries Should Respond to Trump’s Tariffs [https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/04/07/trump-tariffs-trade-deficits-markets-retaliation/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtdGFyaWZmcy10cmFkZS1kZWZpY2l0cy1tYXJrZXRzLXJldGFsaWF0aW9u&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Keith Johnson: Tariffs Have Hurt, Not Helped, the U.S. Economy [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/13/tariffs-hurt-not-helped-the-u-s-economy-trump-trade-ieepa/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dGFyaWZmcy1odXJ0LW5vdC1oZWxwZWQtdGhlLXUtcy1lY29ub215LXRydW1wLXRyYWRlLWllZXBh&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Rishi Iyengar: EU Don’t Need U.S.? [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/12/eu-nato-munich-security-conference-msc-colby/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=ZXUtbmF0by1tdW5pY2gtc2VjdXJpdHktY29uZmVyZW5jZS1tc2MtY29sYnk=&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Ramon Pacheco Pardo and Robyn Klingler-Vidra: Middle Powers Don’t Have to Work Together to Get Ahead [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/03/us-china-middle-powers-diplomacy-competition-trade-industry-critical-minerals/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dXMtY2hpbmEtbWlkZGxlLXBvd2Vycy1kaXBsb21hY3ktY29tcGV0aXRpb24tdHJhZGUtaW5kdXN0cnktY3JpdGljYWwtbWluZXJhbHM=&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Will the United States Attack Iran?

With the White House continuing to threaten military action against Tehran even as diplomatic talks continue, Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour joins FP Live host Ravi Agrawal to discuss what might come next. Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Plus, One Thing from Ravi on a sobering new report about a world “Under Destruction.” A transcript of J.D. Vance’s 2025 Munich Security Conference speech [https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/18/vance-speech-munich-full-text-read-transcript-europe/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dmFuY2Utc3BlZWNoLW11bmljaC1mdWxsLXRleHQtcmVhZC10cmFuc2NyaXB0LWV1cm9wZQ==&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Under Destruction: Munich Security Report 2026 [https://securityconference.org/assets/02_Dokumente/01_Publikationen/2026/MSR2026/Under_Destruction%E2%80%93Munich_Security_Report_2026.pdf] Amitav Acharya: The World-Minus-One Moment [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/05/world-minus-one-united-states-isolationism-multilateralism-global-power/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=d29ybGQtbWludXMtb25lLXVuaXRlZC1zdGF0ZXMtaXNvbGF0aW9uaXNtLW11bHRpbGF0ZXJhbGlzbS1nbG9iYWwtcG93ZXI=&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Follow FP’s MSC coverage here [https://foreignpolicy.com/projects/munich-security-conference/?tpcc=hp] The Atlantic: Karim Sadjadpour and Jack A. Goldstone: Is the Iranian Regime About to Collapse? [https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/01/iran-revolution-protests-collapse/685578/] Trita Parsi: Iran’s Despair Is U.S. Policy [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/04/iran-sanctions-trump-despair-protest-revolution-reform-khamenei/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi1zYW5jdGlvbnMtdHJ1bXAtZGVzcGFpci1wcm90ZXN0LXJldm9sdXRpb24tcmVmb3JtLWtoYW1lbmVp&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Saeid Golkar: Why Iran’s Regime Didn’t Collapse [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/21/iran-regime-collapse-islamic-republic-structure/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi1yZWdpbWUtY29sbGFwc2UtaXNsYW1pYy1yZXB1YmxpYy1zdHJ1Y3R1cmU=&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Abbas Milani: Iran’s Crown Prince Has Become Indispensable [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/16/iran-crown-prince-reza-pahlavi-protests/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi1jcm93bi1wcmluY2UtcmV6YS1wYWhsYXZpLXByb3Rlc3Rz&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]