Foreign Policy Live

Where the Iran War Goes From Here

The extension of a fragile cease-fire in the Middle East has left the region with no clear path forward. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, which means the global energy crisis will get worse. But Tehran’s new leaders are suffering too. What is their plan? Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour joins FP Live to discuss the shifting state of the war. Plus, Ravi shares his read on how the war’s economic fallout is worst in Asia. Ravi Agrawal: The World Is Paying the Price for America’s War [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/20/trump-iran-war-energy-prices-stocks-ai-asia-africa/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtaXJhbi13YXItZW5lcmd5LXByaWNlcy1zdG9ja3MtYWktYXNpYS1hZnJpY2E=&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] David Ignatius: Both Sides Want a Deal. Both Keep Acting As if They Don’t. [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/21/united-states-iran-negotiations-islamabad-pakistan-war-deal-cease-fire-strait-hormuz/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dW5pdGVkLXN0YXRlcy1pcmFuLW5lZ290aWF0aW9ucy1pc2xhbWFiYWQtcGFraXN0YW4td2FyLWRlYWwtY2Vhc2UtZmlyZS1zdHJhaXQtaG9ybXV6&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Menahem Merhavy: The Man Who Represents Post-Clerical Iran [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/16/zolghadr-iran-security-post-clerical-era/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=em9sZ2hhZHItaXJhbi1zZWN1cml0eS1wb3N0LWNsZXJpY2FsLWVyYQ==&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Bobby Ghosh: Tehran Can’t Count on Hormuz [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/13/iran-trump-hormuz-war-missiles-nuclear-shipping/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi10cnVtcC1ob3JtdXotd2FyLW1pc3NpbGVzLW51Y2xlYXItc2hpcHBpbmc=&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Philip H. Gordon and Rebecca Lissner: The Strategic Aftershocks of Trump’s Iran War [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/20/strategic-aftershocks-trump-iran-war-israel-oil/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=c3RyYXRlZ2ljLWFmdGVyc2hvY2tzLXRydW1wLWlyYW4td2FyLWlzcmFlbC1vaWw=&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Is America Becoming a Rogue State?

The Iran war has become the most serious foreign-policy challenge for U.S. President Donald Trump in his second term. But does it reveal a larger point about U.S. power? Stephen M. Walt, a professor at Harvard University and Foreign Policy columnist, argues that it does and that the United States is increasingly acting like a rogue state. What damage will this cause, and what can countries do about it? Plus, Ravi offers his read on Hungary’s election and why it matters for the world. Thomas Carothers: Why Viktor Orban’s Fidesz Party Lost [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/12/why-viktor-orbans-fidesz-party-lost/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=d2h5LXZpa3Rvci1vcmJhbnMtZmlkZXN6LXBhcnR5LWxvc3Q=&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Stephen M. Walt: The United States Has Become a Rogue State [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/26/united-states-trump-rogue-state-iran/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dW5pdGVkLXN0YXRlcy10cnVtcC1yb2d1ZS1zdGF0ZS1pcmFu&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Foreign Affairs: Stephen M. Walt: The Predatory Hegemon [https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/predatory-hegemon-walt] Ravi Agrawal: Trump Is Ushering In a More Transactional World [https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/07/trump-transactional-global-system-us-allies-markets-tariffs/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtdHJhbnNhY3Rpb25hbC1nbG9iYWwtc3lzdGVtLXVzLWFsbGllcy1tYXJrZXRzLXRhcmlmZnM=&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Howard W. French: Trump’s Recipe for Accelerated U.S. Decline [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/09/trump-iran-military-spending-us-decline/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtaXJhbi1taWxpdGFyeS1zcGVuZGluZy11cy1kZWNsaW5l&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Pew Research Center: International Views of China Turn Slightly More Positive [https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2025/07/15/international-views-of-china-turn-slightly-more-positive/] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

An Iran Hawk’s Take on the Cease-Fire

The Trump administration’s plans in the Middle East are often criticized by those who say he shouldn’t have attacked Iran. But the White House is also facing flak from those who say that it didn’t go far enough. John Bolton is a longtime proponent of regime change in Iran. He served as national security advisor in the first Trump administration before falling out with the president. Bolton joined FP’s Ravi Agrawal for a debate. Plus, Ravi gives his read on the tenuous Middle East cease-fire.  Ravi Agrawal: Why Trump Mishandled Iran [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/08/iran-war-ceasefire-trump-united-states-israel/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi13YXItY2Vhc2VmaXJlLXRydW1wLXVuaXRlZC1zdGF0ZXMtaXNyYWVs&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd%20&tpcc=fpl_pod] New York Times: John Bolton: Finish the Job: How Trump Can Still Win in Iran [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/04/opinion/iran-war-trump-win.html] Ali Hashem: The Iran Cease-Fire Has Only Divided the War [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/09/iran-cease-fire-lebanon-war-pakistan-talks/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi1jZWFzZS1maXJlLWxlYmFub24td2FyLXBha2lzdGFuLXRhbGtz&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Raphael S. Cohen: Trump’s Iran War Is a Dilemma, Not a Debacle [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/01/iran-war-trump-israel-oil-hormuz-economy-energy-military/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi13YXItdHJ1bXAtaXNyYWVsLW9pbC1ob3JtdXotZWNvbm9teS1lbmVyZ3ktbWlsaXRhcnk=&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Eric Brewer: Preventing an Iranian Bomb Is Only Getting Harder [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/07/iran-bomb-nuclear-trump-war-ayatollah-khamenei/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi1ib21iLW51Y2xlYXItdHJ1bXAtd2FyLWF5YXRvbGxhaC1raGFtZW5laQ==&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Stephen Walt: America’s Pro-War Elites Must Be Held Accountable [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/09/america-pro-war-elites-accountable-responsibility/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=YW1lcmljYS1wcm8td2FyLWVsaXRlcy1hY2NvdW50YWJsZS1yZXNwb25zaWJpbGl0eQ==&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Rishi Iyengar: Trump’s Pivot to Pakistan [https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/08/trump-pakistan-munir-sharif-critical-minerals-cryptocurrency/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtcGFraXN0YW4tbXVuaXItc2hhcmlmLWNyaXRpY2FsLW1pbmVyYWxzLWNyeXB0b2N1cnJlbmN5&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

The Iran War Cease-Fire and the Return of the Energy Weapon

After news of a 14-day cease-fire in the middle east conflict, Ravi shares his initial thoughts and analysis. Plus, the rationale for attacking Iran revolved around security. How did the global narrative become about energy? Iran’s strongest weapon has turned out to be its ability to strangle the Strait of Hormuz, an important trade choke point. What does the return of energy as a weapon mean for the global economy?  Meghan O’Sullivan, author of Windfall: How the New Energy Abundance Upends Global Politics and Strengthens America’s Power, explains how countries need to think about their energy security. She is a professor at Harvard University and has previously served as deputy national security advisor for Iraq and Afghanistan in the George W. Bush administration.  Ravi Agrawal: Why Trump Mishandled Iran [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/08/iran-war-ceasefire-trump-united-states-israel/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi13YXItY2Vhc2VmaXJlLXRydW1wLXVuaXRlZC1zdGF0ZXMtaXNyYWVs&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd%20&tpcc=fpl_pod] New York Times: How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-war.html] Amir Handjani: The War Will End With a Hormuz Toll Booth [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/07/iran-war-hormuz-toll-booth-peace/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi13YXItaG9ybXV6LXRvbGwtYm9vdGgtcGVhY2U=&pid=PNIhHwPfesawrtd&tpcc=fpl_pod] Nils Gilman: Electrostates vs. Petrostates [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/23/climate-change-world-order-green-transition-fossil-fuel/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=Y2xpbWF0ZS1jaGFuZ2Utd29ybGQtb3JkZXItZ3JlZW4tdHJhbnNpdGlvbi1mb3NzaWwtZnVlbA==&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec] Jason Bordoff and Spencer Dale: Making the U.S. More Resilient to Oil Price Shocks [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/17/trump-oil-iran-gas-prices-consumers-crude-energy-taxes/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtb2lsLWlyYW4tZ2FzLXByaWNlcy1jb25zdW1lcnMtY3J1ZGUtZW5lcmd5LXRheGVz&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Foreign Affairs: Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O’Sullivan: The Return of the Energy Weapon [https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/return-energy-weapon-bordoff-osullivan] Foreign Affairs: Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O’Sullivan: The Iran Shock And the Dangerous Allure of Energy Autarky [https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/iran-shock] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

What Is Iran’s Endgame?

As the U.S.-Israel war against Iran enters a second month of conflict, how is Tehran’s surviving leadership thinking about an endgame? And how will the conflict reshape geopolitics in the region? Ali Vaez has extensive contacts with Iranian lawmakers and sits down with Ravi Agrawal to discuss the regime’s options. Vaez is a project director at the International Crisis Group. Plus, Ravi’s Read on how the White House seems to be winning the battle but losing the war.  Ravi Agrawal: Trump Is Losing the War in Iran [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/30/trump-war-iran-israel-lebanon-gulf-winner-loser/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dHJ1bXAtd2FyLWlyYW4taXNyYWVsLWxlYmFub24tZ3VsZi13aW5uZXItbG9zZXI=&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Robert A. Pape and Ali Vaez: The Iran War Has Escaped Its Authors [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/30/iran-war-trump-israel-escalation-hormuz/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi13YXItdHJ1bXAtaXNyYWVsLWVzY2FsYXRpb24taG9ybXV6&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Zakiyeh Yazdanshenas: What Iran Wants From the War [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/24/iran-war-trump-hormuz-deterrence-coercion-oil-power/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi13YXItdHJ1bXAtaG9ybXV6LWRldGVycmVuY2UtY29lcmNpb24tb2lsLXBvd2Vy&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec] Thomas Juneau: Get Ready for a Weaker but Nastier Iran [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/19/iran-war-trump-gulf-israel-islamic-republic/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi13YXItdHJ1bXAtZ3VsZi1pc3JhZWwtaXNsYW1pYy1yZXB1YmxpYw==&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Menahem Merhavy: Iran’s Civilizational Rhetoric Is Hollow [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/26/iran-civilization-persia-history-rhetoric/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi1jaXZpbGl6YXRpb24tcGVyc2lhLWhpc3RvcnktcmhldG9yaWM=&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Arash Reisinezhad: Iran’s Biggest Wartime Advantage is Geography [https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/23/iran-war-geography-hormuz-mountains-territory/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=aXJhbi13YXItZ2VvZ3JhcGh5LWhvcm11ei1tb3VudGFpbnMtdGVycml0b3J5&pid=PNIESs9hMqnvgec&tpcc=fpl_pod] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]