Market Trends with Tracy

Summer Grilling Had Me a Blast

BEEF We are rolling into the summer demand for things that go on the grill. The most common will be burgers, and I do think we will see burgers to continue higher every week, probably all the way to Independence Day. Production numbers continue in the same volume we’ve seen for months now. 535K head harvested last week, 527K the week prior. I really don’t see that improving anytime soon. We are seeing Middle meats, those ribeyes, tenderloins and strips moving up again after a few weeks' breather.  Grinds still heading higher. Chucks and rounds holding pretty steady, but they could be moving higher if demand for ground beef gets those cuts added to the grinder. We should see some relief on thin meats, briskets and sirloin flap in particular are moving lower and that should continue at least a few weeks. It's an interesting market, I’d still stay ahead of my needs, but there could be some deals to be had.   POULTRY Chicken production continues to outpace last year by almost 3%. Demand is meeting supply but there is plenty of product available. Randoms and wings are actually down for next week, tenders holding steady. I do think this market will turn higher as we get into the heat of summer, but I don’t expect any big spikes like we’ve seen in years past. Looks like chicken is positioned to be on the grill this summer. On the avian flu front, another six new cases affecting 57K birds. No fun losing any birds but this is looking pretty good as the weather heats up.   GRAINS Took a week to figure out we don’t have a big grain rally after all. Demand for soy continues strong but doubts about deals with China are pushing all the grain markets lower. Corn almost hit $5 last week, today back to $4.75/bushel.  Soy has leveled off, I would not be surprised to see some decline, not much, but some over the next couple weeks. Wheat is shaping up to have a less than great domestic crop, flour is up a bit and of the three grains we watch, wheat has me watching.   PORK I absolutely did not have bellies for $104 at Memorial Day in my market expectations. I thought last week at $121 was something. I don’t know how long this low market will last but it is not something we would usually see this time of year. It's time to buy bacon! Contrary to that, butts and ribs continue to show strength and up a few cents next week. Loins continue to be steady and a great protein value.   DAIRY CME I didn’t see the belly market crash, and I don’t know if this week is a trend or an event, we’ll see what next week brings. Through Thursday’s CME close butter is down 6, block is down 6, and barrel also down 6. Let's see where this goes next.  Savalfoods.com [https://www.savalfoods.com/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcast] | Find us on Social Media [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig]: Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig], Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF4jULNg7FD0hEEgMk18Q0g?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], Twitter [https://twitter.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/284655/admin/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb]

Pennies Up, Pennies Down

BEEF Beef is ready to move higher into the high demand summer season. Beef harvest however continues with lower production numbers, 527K head last week, 534K the week prior. We may see small increases too over the next few weeks but I’m not seeing anything to make this market change the current mood of tight supplies and increasing prices. The move higher has begun with this week’s trading. Middle meats are already pretty inflated, but they will push up over the next few weeks. Grinds will be leading the way with strong demand both in retail and foodservice. Rounds and chucks have leveled off for now but should follow the grind pricing higher. Middle meats that pushed up so hard in April into May are holding onto all those recent gains, but I don’t see them moving much higher in the near term. Beef will continue to move higher over the next few weeks.   POULTRY Chicken on the other hand is in great position, increasing production about 3% over last year, increasing egg sets which tells me we expect to continue to grow market share and I do think keeping prices affordable will be a key to summer chicken success. Next week, we see pennies up, pennies down, this market is well supplied and feels in a good position to move into summer. On the Avian flu front, 6 new cases affecting 79k birds, mostly ducks. Any loss is too many, but this is much better data over the last couple weeks as weather gets warmer as this virus does not like hot weather.   GRAINS While soy has been the story the last month moving up every day, things have leveled off and we could see some giveback over the next couple weeks.  Corn is on the move, something not thought in months. Corn closed today at $4.90, the highest close since May 2025. Wheat is now the leader on the move higher, mostly from mediocre crop reports domestically and international demand. We are seeing the highest wheat costs since June of 2024. Expect price increases on flour and bakery goods.   PORK Pork bellies moving lower again, closing at $121 down from last weeks $125.  Good time to buying bacon. We typically see a surge in belly prices as the weather warms, but not this year. I’m watching but I don’t see anything to move this market higher just yet. Butts on the other hand are moving higher, about $.10/# for next week, that’s a good move for pork butts, ribs also showing summer increases while loins continue to be the value in protein.   DAIRY CME is a split decision this week, thru Thursday’s close butter is up 2 after a couple weeks decline, block down 2 and barrel down 1. Looks like raw material is in good supply so I’m thinking we will continue on this minor weekly change, at least a bit.   Savalfoods.com [https://www.savalfoods.com/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcast] | Find us on Social Media [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig]: Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig], Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF4jULNg7FD0hEEgMk18Q0g?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], Twitter [https://twitter.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/284655/admin/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb]

Bellies Off to the Races

Thanks for joining me today, let's look at a few markets heading into Mother’s Day weekend. Let's start as usual with beef.    We’ve had a couple weeks of relatively stable pricing, and I think we’ve got another week, maybe two before summer fun and demand start pushing prices up. Beef harvest last week was 534K head, up a few from the 529K the week prior.  That keeps inventories very tight. Middle meats, those Ribeyes, strip loins, and tenderloins are finding modest support moving minimally higher. Rounds and chucks are holding fairly steady. I think as we see hamburger move higher, makes sense to move chucks and rounds into the grinder to support ground beef demand. Thin meats were on a rocket heading into May. They aren’t giving back any of those recent gains, but they are holding fairly steady for now. I do think this is a buying opportunity as I do think this market will turn higher over the next few weeks.   Chicken production continues pace ahead of last year by about 2%. Demand is holding up though we do see a small decline in boneless skinless random breasts, tenders and party wings are holding steady for the week. I do think the next move for chicken prices will push higher but as with beef, I think we’ll take a breather for a week or so. On Avian Flu, a very good week, one new case reported affecting 110 birds. We had a tough start to spring but hopefully this is a sign of a calmer end of spring into summer.   Soy continues to demand the attention in grain pushing higher every day. When gas is high as we are currently seeing, soy demand for biofuels gets serious, corn continues to be steady closing at $4.72 up from last week $4.71, so not much going on in corn. Wheat is getting international interest and pushing up a bit.   Pork bellies are down again this week, todays close $125, down from last week $135.  I do think we will see a summer run on bellies but looks like we have some buying opportunities before that happens. The rest of the pork complex is seeing increases, butts and ribs moving up for the week, while loins continue to be a great value.   The CME close on Thursday shows a well-balanced market, butter is down 5, barrel has not change and block is down 1.  We can always use a bit of good news on the CME. Savalfoods.com [https://www.savalfoods.com/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcast] | Find us on Social Media [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig]: Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig], Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF4jULNg7FD0hEEgMk18Q0g?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], Twitter [https://twitter.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/284655/admin/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb]

Bellies Drop while Beef Corrects

Try to say "Avian Flu Front" five times fast, go ahead, give it a whirl.  The beef market is continuing the market correction started last week.  Middle meats were leading this market higher, and now they are leading this market lower.  Ribeyes, Tenderloins, Strip Loins, all lower for the week. Rounds and Chucks coming off as well.  The one area the reduced harvest numbers are really pushing on is thin meats, briskets, flanks, sirloin flap, and skirt steak all steadily moving higher each week.  I expect we will see this continue higher right into Cinco de Mayo.  Mother’s Day is right after, so we do have some events coming to move some beef.  I’d still stay ahead of my needs, cattle harvest was only 512K last week, down from 533K the week before so while prices may be declining, inventories continue to be tight.    Chicken demand remains strong and production is continuing to outpace last year running about 2% up for the year.  Recently boneless skinless randoms and tenders have been on a weekly move higher.  It looks like randoms will take a little breather and actually decline a few pennies, tenders and wings will continue higher for next week.  Overall I still see this market continuing higher at least the next few weeks.  On the Avian flu front, another relatively good week, 3 new cases affecting 251K birds.  Heat is not this virus’s friend, so hopefully as the weather warms the virus will be less active.    War can’t move the corn market, this week’s close $4.55/bushel, last week’s close $4.53.  New crop is coming and we still have plenty of last year’s crop and I believe still some 2024 crop; there is lots of corn available.  Soy: now soy moved higher a few weeks ago, not letting go those recent gains and demand for biofuel is keeping soybeans moving.  Wheat is seeing effects of internation unrest, market is up $.13bushel from last week.  Nothing to panic but I think we will see modest increases in flour pricing.    I started seeing the pork belly market move lower this week, then it just dropped, today’s close $136 down from last week’s $149.  This market reset should move bacon prices down.  The rest of the pork complex is moving by pennies, butts, loins, ribs, all a good value with good availability.    A split market this week in dairy, thru Thursday’s close the CME for butter is up 2, while the barrel is down 1 and block down 3.  Production numbers say this should be a stable market at least for the next few weeks.    Savalfoods.com [https://www.savalfoods.com/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcast] | Find us on Social Media [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig]: Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig], Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF4jULNg7FD0hEEgMk18Q0g?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], Twitter [https://twitter.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/284655/admin/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb]

Tentative Good News for Beef

We are well into spring now and some things are shaking in the beef market.  First good news, though the strike is not settled, the JBS workers are returning to work while negotiations continue. Good news, beef harvest increased to 533K still running about 10% behind last year, supplies remain very tight.  Good news, market prices seem to be pushing back a bit, maybe this is moving higher too quickly? I still think this bull market will continue to move higher into spring, but I do think we’ve got a little breather for a week or so. Rounds and chucks are both down a bit this week, more good news. Middle meats are steady to slightly higher this week, but thin meats, those flanks, skirt, sirloin flat meat, all still expensive and moving higher.  Typically, thin meats will peak around Cinco de Mayo, which is not that far way.   POULTRY: Chicken production continues to outpace last year, up 2% so far this year.  Hatch rate is improving 79.3% - chicken is in full production.  Demand is right there with it, chicken, still a great value in protein, but pricing is moving higher.  Boneless skinless randoms breasts, tenders, party wings, all moving higher.  I think we’ll see this market move higher the next few weeks.   On Avian flu, a relatively good week with 3 new cases affecting 111K birds.  As spring migration tapers off let's hope the virus does too.   GRAINS : Corn barely moved from $4.54 to $4.53 this week.  Wheat about the same, soy is holding onto all their recent gains.  With the cost of fuel moving higher, demand for biofuels will increase, soy and canola continue to inch up on daily markets.   PORK: Last week bellies closed at $149, same this week, steady at $149.  I’m thinking we will continue in this $150 market for a few more weeks, next move should be higher, but I’m going to push that out a few weeks.  The rest of the pork complex is well supplied and priced well.  Butts inch up a penny, loins and ribs steady.     DAIRY Dairy markets holding pretty steady for  the week, Thru Thursday’s CME close block is down 2, barrel is steady, no change, and butter down 4.  Spring production is good and availability is very good.   Savalfoods.com [https://www.savalfoods.com/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcast] | Find us on Social Media [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig]: Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/savalfoods/?hl=en&utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastig], Facebook [https://www.facebook.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF4jULNg7FD0hEEgMk18Q0g?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], Twitter [https://twitter.com/SavalFoods?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/company/284655/admin/?utm_source=podsav&utm_medium=players&utm_campaign=mtttracy&utm_id=podcastfb]