REFSA Reflections

RMK12 first impressions and why we should care

In this episode, YB Dr. Ong Kian Ming (@imokman), Iskandar Fareez (@iskandarfareez) and Frederik Paulus (@fpaulus) share their first impressions on the 12th Malaysia Plan, released last week. They discuss the strong points and shortcomings of the plan, why it is an important document and process to guide the nation's economic development, and how we can ensure that the plan doesn't just remain a statement of good intentions. LINKS * REFSA's wish list for the 12th Malaysia Plan [https://refsa.org/refsa-notes-5-2021-12th-malaysia-plan-refsas-wishlist/] (refsa.org) * Projek Muhibah: 10 strategies to reopen the economy and build back better. [https://refsa.org/projek-muhibah/] (refsa.org)

Introducing Projek Muhibah: 10 Policies to Rebuild Malaysia Better

In this episode, YB Dr. Ong Kian Ming (@imokman), Iskandar Fareez (@iskandarfareez) and Frederik Paulus (@fpaulus) go into more depth on the “10 Questions for Bank Negara” note released last week. They discuss why the downside risks to economic growth in 2021 appear to be too high to substantiate BNM’s estimates. As of late April 2021, recovery remains elusive, particularly given the low vaccination rates and rising case numbers suggestive of a fourth wave. In the continuing absence of targeted mitigation measures, such as a Find, Test, Trace, Isolate and Support system (FTTIS), Malaysia will only be able to weather subsequent waves of infection by making difficult trade-offs between public health and the economy, which have both been under tremendous pressure in the last few months. They also highlight the worry that optimistic forecasts in what is still an uncertain and volatile climate could lead to complacency. Overconfidence in the strong recovery forecast by BNM may be used to justify the premature withdrawal of support. Instead, what the country needs in the coming months is the expansion of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to protect workers, promote consumption and empower SMEs as part of a broad strategy to rebuild the economy. With this in mind, over the coming weeks REFSA will be introducing 10 strategies to build Malaysia back better. This will serve as a guide on how a responsible and responsive government should respond to the ongoing pandemic, and we will go deeper into each of them over the next few episodes of the show. LINKS * 10 Questions for Bank Negara on the 2021 GDP Growth Forecast [https://refsa.org/10-questions-for-bank-negara-on-the-2021-gdp-growth-forecast/] (refsa.org) * 10 Strategies to Save Jobs and Revive the Economy [https://refsa.org/introduction-to-the-10-strategies-to-save-jobs-and-revive-the-economy/] (refsa.org)

All about GLC's, with Jalil Rasheed

This week, Iskandar (@iskandarfareez) and Frederik (@fpaulus) are joined by special guest Jalil Rasheed (@jalilword), former CEO of Permodalan Nasional Berhad (PNB), to talk about GLC’s and how they fit into the fabric of our economy. Some of the topics we touch upon in the show: * What is a GLC, a GLIC? Can we consider them as one whole, or are there meaningful differences between different entities, and if so what are they, and why do they matter? * How do GLC’s relate to the government and the public? Who should they be accountable to, should they be run like a private company, or are there special considerations? * Do GLC’s have a wider responsibility towards stakeholders (beyond just shareholders), and why? How can they fulfil these wider responsibilities without compromising good governance? * How can GLC’s best contribute to the overall growth of the economy, and to shared prosperity for the whole of society? Can they be considered tools of economic policy, and if so what are the opportunities and limitations? At the very end, we recommended the following books for further reading: * “Neither Civil Nor Servant, the Philip Yeo Story [https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/32953251-neither-civil-nor-servant]” by Peh Shing Huei—This authorised biography of the former chairman of Singapore’s Economic Development Board gives a fantastic insight into the country’s approach to economic development and creating ecosystems. * “Minister of Finance Incorporated [https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/38646585-minister-of-finance-incorporated]” by Edmund Terence Gomez e.a.—A bible of sorts to understand GLC’s in Malaysia, shining a light on all the entities set up and how they are controlled. * “The Entrepreneurial State: Debunking Public vs Private Sector Myths [https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17987621-the-entrepreneurial-state]” by Mariana Mazzucato—Not specifically related to GLC’s, but a seminal analysis on the state as a catalyst of economic activity, which forces us to reassess its role in growth and development.

Budget 2021 with Ong Kian Ming

Budget 2021 will be tabled for a vote this week. On this occasion, we look at what would make a good budget in the current environment, marked by a triple crisis, and how the proposed budget scores against this. Joining us for the discussion is special guest YB Dr. Ong Kian Ming. LINKS * IMF, Economic Outlook October 2020, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020 [https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020] * WHO, Covid-19 Advice and Guidance, https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019 [https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019] * CDC, Covid-19 microsite, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/index.html [https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/index.html] * Ministry of Finance Malaysia, Budget 2021 microsite, http://belanjawan2021.treasury.gov.my/index.php/en/ [http://belanjawan2021.treasury.gov.my/index.php/en/]

Inequality and Good Jobs

Inequality has become a critical topic over the last few years, seen as a major driver of electoral earthquakes worldwide. REFSA's Liew Chin Tong, Iskandar Fareez and Frederik Paulus delve deeper into the meaning, causes and possible solutions. Book Recommendations * Sultan Nazrin Shah, Striving for Inclusive Development: From Pangkor to a Modern Malaysian State, Oxford University Press, 2019. * Mazzucato, M., The Value of Everything: Making and Taking in the Global Economy, Allen Lane, 2018. * Piketty, T., The Economics of Inequality, Harvard University Press, 2015. * Appelbaum, B., The Economists' Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets, and the Fracture of Society, Little, Brown & Company, 2019.