Stop the World

Syria has been front and centre in the news in recent days, with international agencies saying that hundreds and perhaps thousands have been killed – many of them civilians – in the coastal regions of the country.   In today’s podcast, David Wroe speaks to Aaron Zelin, the Gloria and Ken Levy Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, about developments in Syria since the fall of the Assad dynasty in December. They discuss the political and security situation in Syria, including leader Ahmed al-Sharaa and the basis of his power. They consider life for ordinary Syrians, the question of justice for victims of the former regime, how the various factions fit together and Syria’s relations with the region and the world.

Constanze Stelzenmüller, expert on German, European, and trans-Atlantic foreign and security policy and strategy at the Brookings Institution, gives Stop the World her short take on the remarkable sense of urgency that Europe is displaying in building its own security capabilities: “I've never seen anything like this in my life.”   Her longer answer is a superb dissection of the radical reorientation coming out of the Trump administration—what she calls a “Yalta 2.0”; the likelihood that much of the world might have other ideas, leading a frustration of Trump’s instincts; Europe’s shortening patience for the skulduggery of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán; its need to keep the US engaged in Europe’s security; and ultimately the proper sense that Europe has accepted the need to step up to defend Ukraine and itself over the longer term.   Her conclusion: “I think we might all have to sort of buckle our seat belts.”

Donald Trump has upended US foreign policy—in particular his nation’s role in supporting Ukraine’s self-defence against Russia’s unprovoked invasion, and its traditionally close relationship with its NATO allies in Europe. As a consequence, Europe is scrambling to lift its defence investment and capability with a sense of urgency not seen in the post-War years.   The Economist’s Defence Editor Shashank Joshi gives us his expert take on the latest developments, what they mean and where the world is headed from here. Shashank helps us to understand what Trump is trying to do, how Europe sees the threat from Russia in a possible future in which Putin’s aggression is rewarded rather than penalised, and the increasingly positive signs of strong European leadership to take up the role defending a liberal international order. Finally he gives his view on what it all means for Australia and the Indo-Pacific.

2025 is a pivotal year for international cyber governance. Not only is it the tenth anniversary of the international community’s agreement to a global framework for responsible state behaviour in cyberspace, but it is also the year that the UN Open-Ended Working Group on security of and in the use of information and communications technologies will conclude its mandate. This sets the stage for the establishment of a more permanent mechanism for global cyber discussions. To discuss these developments and reflect on how states around the world have interpreted and operationalised responsible state behaviour in cyberspace, ASPI’s Gatra Priyandita speaks with two leading cyber experts, Farlina Said from the Institute of Strategic and International Studies in Malaysia, and Louise Marie Hurel, from the Royal United Services Institute in London.

Today on Stop the World, the conversation on Ukraine continues, with ASPI’s Alex Bristow speaking to Jakub Zajączkowski and Saroj Kumar Aryal from the University of Warsaw. They discuss the EU and US approaches to peace in Ukraine, the security guarantees Ukraine needs, and the links between the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic, including through NATO and the Indo-Pacific Four. They discuss Poland’s increased interest in the Indo-Pacific, the value of minilaterals such as the Quad, and India’s relationships with Russia, Europe and Quad countries. Guests:   Alex Bristow   Jakub Zajączkowski  Saroj Kumar Aryal