Thinking Long & Short: An Investment Professionals Podcast

The Time to Buy Stocks is Now - EP 77

- The DJIA outperforms the NASDAQ by 9% after posting its best October in history - Corporate earnings for value stocks hold up as earnings for growth stocks tumble - Interest rates on bonds continue to remain high as the yield curve continues to show deeper inversions/recession warnings - American Express reports consumer loan balances up 28.9% year-over-year as inflation continues to impact the consumer - Value stocks will outperform growth stocks for years - All recent economic data shows a weak economy and stubbornly high inflation - Republicans will likely sweep the midterms, which will be welcomed by Wall Street as investors typically like gridlock in Washington

Wall Street Analysts Just Don't Get It - EP 76

- Stocks get clobbered on Friday to finish a very volatile week on Wall Street - CPI inflation data comes in twice as high as economists expected as Retail Sales data shows consumer continues to weaken with the economy - Cyclical and growth stocks continue to get hammered with interest rates and bond yields continuing to rise - US Dollar Index reaches new high on the year as investors blindly bet on more rate hikes / peak inflation - Tom Lee and CNBC analysts have been completely wrong on anything and everything in markets this year - Gold continues to outperform everything (S&P 500 / DOW / NASDAQ / Bonds / Bitcoin) as yellow metal flies below the radar - OPEC production cuts keep oil prices propped up amid recession fears  - Pepsi reports 17% Y-o-Y increase in product pricing as they beat earnings estimates along with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo - The Federal Reserve is behind the inflation curve more now than they were at the start of 2022

This Bear Market Continues to Slide a Slope of Hope - EP 75

- Nonfarm Payroll Report causes ugly sell off for stocks  - Some of CNBC analysts' favorite stocks have been clobbered this year with more downside to come - Extremely high auto loan growth shows how weak the consumer is and how easy credit conditions are continuing to cause inflation - S&P 500 is forming very bearish technical patterns as fundamentals for stocks continue to worsen - If corporate earnings don't take down the stock market, inflation & higher interest rates will - US bond market continues to show major weakness as yield curve inverts even more with rising rates across the board - Labor market is much weaker beneath the surface and so is the US economy

Q3 Wrap Up - The 2nd Worst Year for Investors Ever - EP 74

- Stocks close the week with big losses to finish worst September for stocks since 2008 - Higher interest rates could cause a lost decade for stock and bond investors, 60/40 portfolio having second-worst year ever (1931) - Bank of England becomes first major central bank to pivot from its inflation fighting policies - The bond market will continue to drag the stock market down, Fed pivot becomes more imminent - The Fed has pricked the debt bubble it created in 2008, Financial Crisis close on the horizon - Inflation is only just getting started, input costs and slowing growth putting downward pressure on stocks - Stagflation will make stock and bond returns resemble the 1970s decade

Stocks Get Crushed in A New Era of Tight Money - EP 73

- Stocks make new yearly lows as S&P 500 closes the week down 23% / NASDAQ down 31% in 2022 - Powell delivers hawkish speech with 75 bps interest rate hike, projects pain for labor market and the economy - Businesses are still experiencing cost pressures that they will pass on to customers in 2023 - Interest rates will derail the housing and stock market, but not inflation - Mortgage rates have only just started their rapid rise, a substantial housing market correction is imminent - Stocks are still way too expensive historically and are headed much lower in coming months - Bulls throw in the towel and reduce S&P 500 price targets, but still remain clueless on market risks