Circuit Breaker: Rewiring Your Decisions

The Gambler’s Fallacy

Why do we believe a random event is “due” to happen just because it hasn’t happened in a while? In this episode of Circuit Breaker: Rewiring Your Decisions, we explore the gambler’s fallacy — the cognitive bias that makes us think past random outcomes influence future ones, even when every event is completely independent. Discover why streaks can fool our intuition, how our brains search for patterns in pure chance, and how recognising this bias can help you make more rational decisions in situations involving uncertainty and probability. Studies and links: The Gambler’s and Hot-Hand Fallacies: Theories and Applications | Matthew Rabin and Dimitri Vayanos | The Review of Economic Studies https://rabin.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/files/omnuum7721/files/rabin/files/ghfta_resf.pdf [https://rabin.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/files/omnuum7721/files/rabin/files/ghfta_resf.pdf] Why do we think a random event is more or less likely to occur if it happened several times in the past? | The Decision Lab https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/gamblers-fallacy [https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/gamblers-fallacy] The Gambler’s Fallacy: What It Is And How To Overcome It | Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/brycehoffman/2024/08/27/the-gamblers-fallacy-what-it-is-and-how-to-overcome-it/ [https://www.forbes.com/sites/brycehoffman/2024/08/27/the-gamblers-fallacy-what-it-is-and-how-to-overcome-it/]

The Phone in the Room Study

Why does having your phone nearby make it harder to think — even when you’re not using it? In this episode of Circuit Breaker: Rewiring Your Decisions, we explore the Phone in the Room Study — the surprising research showing that the mere presence of a smartphone can reduce attention, working memory, and cognitive performance. Discover how your brain allocates resources to resisting distraction, why “just having it there” can drain mental capacity, and what this study reveals about the hidden cognitive costs of constant connectivity. Studies and links: Brain Drain: The Mere Presence of One’s Own Smartphone Reduces Available Cognitive Capacity | Adrian F. Ward, Kristen Duke, Ayelet Gneezy, Maarten W Bos | Research Gate https://www.researchgate.net/publication/315966604_Brain_Drain_The_Mere_Presence_of_One's_Own_Smartphone_Reduces_Available_Cognitive_Capacity [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/315966604_Brain_Drain_The_Mere_Presence_of_One's_Own_Smartphone_Reduces_Available_Cognitive_Capacity] Smartphones are distracting even when you’re not using them | The Journalist’s Resource https://journalistsresource.org/economics/smartphones-mobile-distracting-cognition-iphone/ [https://journalistsresource.org/economics/smartphones-mobile-distracting-cognition-iphone/]

The White Bear Suppression Study

Why is it that the harder we try not to think about something, the more it seems to take over our minds? In this episode of Circuit Breaker: Rewiring Your Decisions, we explore the White Bear Suppression Study — the famous experiment that revealed the paradox of thought suppression. When participants were told not to think about a white bear, they found themselves thinking about it even more. Discover why trying to suppress thoughts often backfires, how unwanted ideas can become more persistent the more we resist them, and what this surprising effect teaches us about attention, self-control, and the way our minds work. Studies and links: The White Bear Story | Daniel Wegner and David Schneider | Psychological Inquiry 2003 vol 14 no 3&4 326-329 https://dtg.sites.fas.harvard.edu/DANWEGNER/pub/White%20Bear%20Story.pdf [https://dtg.sites.fas.harvard.edu/DANWEGNER/pub/White%20Bear%20Story.pdf] Ironic Process Theory & The White Bear Experiment | Simply Psychology https://www.simplypsychology.org/ironic-process-theory-white-bear-experiment.html [https://www.simplypsychology.org/ironic-process-theory-white-bear-experiment.html]

The Foot-in-the-Door Technique

Why do people agree to big requests after saying yes to a small one? In this episode of Circuit Breaker: Rewiring Your Decisions, we explore the foot-in-the-door technique — a powerful persuasion strategy where securing a small commitment first makes people more likely to agree to a larger request later. Discover why consistency is such a strong force in human behaviour, how marketers, salespeople, and campaigners use this technique to influence decisions, and how to recognise when a seemingly harmless first step is leading you somewhere much bigger. Studies and links: Compliance without Pressure: The foot-in-the-door technique | Jonathan L. Freedman and Scott C. Fraser | Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 1966, Vol. 4, No. 2, 155-202 | buildonomics.com https://www.bulidomics.com/w/images/6/6c/Freedman_fraser_footinthedoor_jpsp1966.pdf [https://www.bulidomics.com/w/images/6/6c/Freedman_fraser_footinthedoor_jpsp1966.pdf] Foot-in-the-Door as a Persuasive Technique | psychologist world the foot-in-the-door technique | https://www.psychologistworld.com/behavior/compliance/strategies/foot-in-door-technique [https://www.psychologistworld.com/behavior/compliance/strategies/foot-in-door-technique]

The Curse of Knowledge

Why is it so difficult to remember what it’s like not to know something? In this episode of Circuit Breaker: Rewiring Your Decisions, we explore the curse of knowledge — the cognitive bias that makes informed people assume others share the same understanding, context, or perspective that they do. Discover how knowledge can unintentionally create blind spots, why experts often struggle to explain simple ideas clearly, and how this bias shapes communication, teaching, and everyday misunderstandings more than we realise. Studies and links: The Rocky Road from Actions to Intentions | Elizabeth Newton https://gwern.net/doc/psychology/cognitive-bias/illusion-of-depth/1990-newton.pdf [https://gwern.net/doc/psychology/cognitive-bias/illusion-of-depth/1990-newton.pdf] Curse of Knowledge | The Decision Lab https://thedecisionlab.com/reference-guide/management/curse-of-knowledge [https://thedecisionlab.com/reference-guide/management/curse-of-knowledge]