Decoder with Nilay Patel

Anthropic doesn't trust the Pentagon, and neither should you

My guest today is Mike Masnick, the founder and CEO of Techdirt, the excellent and long-running tech policy blog. Mike has been writing about government overreach, privacy in the digital age, and other related topics for decades now, and he’s an expert on how the internet and the surveillance state have grown in interconnected ways over the past two decades. I wanted to have Mike on the show to discuss the messy, fast-moving situation at Anthropic, the maker of Claude that now finds itself in a very ugly legal battle with the Pentagon. Instead of covering the daily drama, I wanted to dig in specifically on Anthropic's surveillance red line, and the important history and context around digital privacy in the U.S. that shapes how we should think about this going forward.  Links: * AI bros wanted Trump — now they learn what happens when you tell him no | Techdirt [https://www.techdirt.com/2026/03/02/ai-bros-wanted-trump-now-they-learn-what-happens-when-you-tell-him-no/] * OpenAI’s ‘red lines’ are written in the NSA’s dictionary | Techdirt [https://www.techdirt.com/2026/03/02/openais-red-lines-are-written-in-the-nsas-dictionary-where-words-mean-what-the-nsa-wants-them-to-mean/] * Anthropic is suing the Department of Defense | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/891377/anthropic-dod-lawsuit] * Anthropic launches new think tank amid Pentagon fight | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/892478/anthropic-institute-think-tank-claude-pentagon-jack-clark] * How OpenAI caved to the Pentagon on AI surveillance | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/887309/openai-anthropic-dod-military-pentagon-contract-sam-altman-hegseth] * Inside the backlash to the AI war machine | Platformer [https://www.platformer.news/openai-protest-military-ai-movement/] * The Pentagon is violating Anthropic's First Amendment rights | FIRE [https://www.fire.org/news/pentagon-violating-anthropics-first-amendment-rights] * Why the Pentagon wants to destroy Anthropic | Ezra Klein / NYT [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/06/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-dean-ball.html] Subscribe to The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/subscribe] to access the ad-free version of Decoder! Credits: Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane.  The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices [https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices]

Hasbro's CEO lets AI Peppa Pig help design toys

Hasbro might be a toy company, but CEO Chris Cocks has spent the last several years pushing it more and more into the digital media, gaming, and collectibles space. That makes sense, since adults have money and kids don't. All those IP and licensing deals are working out for Hasbro so far. But Hasbro is also facing a lot of risk from instability: in trade and tariffs, in politics and culture, and in the video game market, which seems to be in a more or less permanent state of crisis.  Read the full interview transcript on The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/podcast/890703/hasbro-toys-games-magic-exodus-ai-tariffs]. Links:  * Chris Cocks on Decoder (2023) | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/31/23664113/toys-hasbro-ceo-chris-cocks-magic-dungeons-and-dragons-transformers-business] * Hasbro just made a massive ‘Harry Potter’ Announcement | Parade [https://parade.com/news/hasbro-just-made-a-massive-harry-potter-announcement] * Businesses push for tariff refunds as Trump aides hint at fight | New York Times [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/25/business/trump-tariffs-refunds-lawsuits.html] * We’re finally seeing more of Hasbro’s forgotten space game | PC Gamer [https://www.pcgamesn.com/exodus/game-awards-trailer] * Xbox in is danger. Will Microsoft save it, or kill it? | Decoder [https://www.theverge.com/podcast/884693/xbox-phil-spencer-microsoft-gaming-future-cloud-game-pass] * OpenAI’s billion-dollar deal puts Mickey Mouse in Sora | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/news/842348/disney-openai-sora-chatgpt-images] * A comprehensive timeline of JK Rowling’s descent into transphobia | Them [https://www.them.us/story/timeline-jk-rowlings-descent-into-transphobia] Subscribe to The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/subscribe] to access the ad-free version of Decoder! Credits: Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane.  The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices [https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices]

Prediction markets want to be the news

Today let’s talk about prediction markets, which continue to insert themselves into the news cycle and the news in increasingly weird, unsettling, and potentially illegal ways.  My guest today is Liz Lopatto, a senior reporter at The Verge who owns what we cheerfully call the chaos beat. Liz has been writing a lot about prediction markets lately and especially why they all seem so intent on being perceived as sources of news — a position which directly incentivizes insider trading. That in turn creates a long list of very predictable problems. Read the full interview transcript on The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/podcast/889177/prediction-markets-news-gambling-polymarket-kalshi-iran-war-regulation]. Links: * Prediction markets want to eat the news | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/business/881967/polymarket-kalshi-journalism-sponsorship-ad] * How anonymous bettors cashed In on the Iran strike | NYT [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/upshot/prediction-markets-iran-strikes.html] * With Iran, Kalshi & Polymarket Bet on the Depravity Economy | 404 Media [https://www.404media.co/with-iran-war-kalshi-and-polymarket-bet-that-the-depravity-economy-has-no-bottom/] * Polymarket pulls bet on nuclear detonation in 2026 | 404 Media [https://www.404media.co/polymarket-pulls-bet-on-nuclear-detonation-in-2026/] * Polymarket defends betting on war as ‘invaluable’ | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/tech/887040/polymarket-iran-war-betting-invaluable] * Someone made a ton of money betting on Maduro’s capture | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/news/853765/someone-made-a-ton-of-money-betting-on-maduros-capture] * Are prediction markets gambling? Robinhood CEO bets no | Decoder [https://www.theverge.com/decoder-podcast-with-nilay-patel/645822/robinhood-ceo-vlad-tenev] * Prediction markets roll out war bets beyond Washington’s reach | Bloomberg [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-04/prediction-markets-roll-out-new-war-bets-beyond-washington-reach] * Polymarket partners with Substack for some reason  | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/news/881292/substack-isnt-just-known-for-platforming-and-monetizing-nazis-now] * It’s MAGA v Broligarch in the battle over prediction markets | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/policy/881139/broligarch-prediction-markets] Subscribe to The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/subscribe] to access the ad-free version of Decoder! Credits: Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane.  The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices [https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices]

Zillow's CEO on growth during a housing crisis

Today, I’m talking with Zillow CEO Jeremy Wacksman. Zillow is one of those apps that really exemplifies what you might call the smartphone era of software: the company built a great mobile app for looking at real estate listings, and it turned into not just entertainment for so many of us, but what has become a vertically-integrated platform for buying, selling, and renting real estate. Jeremy’s argument is that the future of Zillow looks a lot like an end-to-end business platform for real estate agents, and we spent a lot of time talking about whether a business as local and as relationship driven as real estate can benefit from platform-level scale in the way he’s proposing. Read the full interview transcript on The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/podcast/887414/zillow-jeremy-wacksman-interview-ai-slop-housing-crisis]. Links:  * Zillow’s new AI staging feature is impressively unimpressive | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/news/775465/zillow-ai-virtual-staging] * Zillow’s upgraded AI search will show you more homes you can’t afford | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/2024/9/4/24235154/zillow-chatbot-home-search-commute] * Zillow adds DMs so you can chat about homes you’ll never buy | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/news/807858/zillow-messaging-feature-dms-launch] * FTC accuses Zillow of paying $100 million to ‘dismantle’ Redfin | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/news/789851/ftc-sues-zillow-and-redfin-for-violating-antitrust-laws] * Housing is frozen. Wacksman knows you’re still scrolling | NYT [https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/27/business/zillow-house-prices-sales.html] * Wacksman on the US housing market | Bloomberg Talks [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Ya-yx5tikk] Subscribe to The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/subscribe] to access the ad-free version of Decoder! Credits: Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt. This was edited by Xander Adams. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane.  The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices [https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices]

Inside Xbox's executive shakeup

Today, we’re talking about the future of Xbox. Phil Spencer, a two-time Decoder guest who’s led Xbox for more than a decade, is stepping down. But in a shocking twist, his deputy long-assumed successor Sarah Bond is also out too, and the Xbox division is now in the hands of an Asha Sharma, one of Microsoft’s AI executives with no prior game industry experience. There is no better person to talk to about all of this than Tom Warren, senior editor here at The Verge and author of the excellent Notepad newsletter. Tom is actually on parental leave right now, but Microsoft has a longstanding habit of disrupting his well-earned time off. So, Tom was gracious enough to come on the show after publishing a major scoop about what went down at Xbox this past week. Read the full interview transcript on The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/podcast/884693/xbox-phil-spencer-microsoft-gaming-future-cloud-game-pass]. Links: * Inside Microsoft’s big Xbox leadership shake-up | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/tech/883015/microsoft-xbox-new-ceo-shakeup-notepad] * Billions of dollars later and still nobody knows what an Xbox is | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/games/883159/phil-spencer-xbox-game-pass] * Xbox chief Phil Spencer is leaving Microsoft | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/news/882241/microsoft-phil-spencer-xbox-leaving-retirement] * Read Xbox chief Phil Spencer’s memo about leaving Microsoft | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/news/882340/xbox-phil-spencer-microsoft-retirement-memo] * Here’s what Xbox is working on for 2026 | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/tech/874303/microsoft-xbox-roadmap-2026-notepad] * AMD hints Microsoft could launch its next-gen Xbox in 2027 | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/news/873490/microsoft-next-gen-xbox-console-2027-date-amd] * The next Xbox is going to be very different | The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/notepad-microsoft-newsletter/612105/microsoft-next-gen-xbox-platform-changes-notepad] * Xbox co-founder believes it’s being ‘sunsetted’ in favor of AI | VGC [https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/xbox-co-founder-believes-its-being-sunsetted-in-favour-of-ai-calls-new-ceo-a-palliative-care-doctor/] Subscribe to The Verge [https://www.theverge.com/subscribe] to access the ad-free version of Decoder! Credits: Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices [https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices]