Notayesmanspodcasts

Notayesmanspodcast388

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- What's your view of the dilemma of adherence to the self-imposed fiscal rules against the need to fund defence/infrastructure commitments. Shaun, I'd be interested in your view of the 10-year gilt yield, nudging 5.1%. How much of this rise is down to the Middle East situation and oil price, and how much of it to Spendy Andy? I guessed 5% was when it starts to break so we shouldn’t have to wait long. I wonder if we’ll have to have an emergency budget? The lack of volatility and tight ranges, could be a "hint" that the BOJ has finally realised that their interventions so far have only donated money to a few players - and now they could be on the offer - ready to destroy USDJPY when others start the move down - first time clever intervention ?

Notayesmanspodcast387

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- I see the heat and war in Ukraine is pushing up agricultural commodity prices like wheat. How long is the pass through time from commodity price rises to shop price increases? Also some questions around the latest Bank of England QE and QT plans. ‘dreadful error’ - so you’d have not done QE at all? Counter-factual of the Gilt market totally seizing up is infinitely worse than where we are now Ive never got why Reeves was never challenged about this in Treasury questions And why they issued so many index linked bonds when inflation was zero!

Notayesmnaspodcast386

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- What’s the chances of the UK running into Argentina/Turkey levels of inflation and interest rates? How genuine do you believe the economic data coming out of China to be? 1) Do you agree with me that a good move by Burnham would be to go back in history books and recreate a new Manchester Stock Exchange to boost local / Northern investments & start-ups and replicate this in the Midlands Both would be under FCA. Is the only solution in the short term to put everyone on an agile price tracker to enforce demand reduction at low supply times!?

Notayesmanspodcast385

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Is £65 per MWh high or low? Is there any economic benefit from having a number 10 in the north? 5 year Gilt is 4.33% and today a 2031 linker was 0.933%. Does that suggest bond markets are calculating RPI will run at 3.4% average over the next 5 years? I am concerned about the possibility of FTSE 100 companies such as HSBC seeking a listing away from the FTSE. How might the composition of the FTSE change in terms of industry segment weighting change, if the rumours in the financial press are true? How might this affect the pricing of the FTSE and performance of funds that track FTSE ?

Notayesmanspodcast384

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- This chart seems to be at odds with everything else I see and hear atm. Can you explain the growth in UK bank lending? Question for today. Do you think the pound becomes a better indicator of fiscal stress if it hits the big 1.30 $/£? On your power system piece, building an new electricity generation, distribution and backup system was always going to be more expensive than using the one we already had, why did Gov not say that from the start?