Notayesmanspodcasts

Notayesmanspodcast392

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- I guess Shaun you'll get any number of questions about what the US is up to, but if not how about something like this: what is Bessent trying to achieve, could it work, who benefits, who loses out. With the general rise in bond markets worldwide, will the ECB continue to ignore Le Spread (+86bps) or will there be a point in time where they will have to intervene? Should I be worried about UK national debt, or will the debt of countries like France, Japan or the USA keep markets occupied. The UK is alone in being the only major currency still pursuing aggressive "Qualitative Tightening" (QT), pushing Government debt out to the gilt markets instead of buying it itself (QE, Qualitative Easing). Others (US, Japan) are swapping gilts to balance interest (QE-lite). Maybe Burnham will too?

Notayesmanspodcast391

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Might be a stupid question, but how does one navigate this to protect capital? Are the recent growth figures for the UK economy as a result of the recent World Cup and people spending more? Or is there a reason to be optimistic? I may be too late Shaun but if not I'd love it if you'd talk about the Fed's attempts to shore up the Yen. For example, what's in it for the US, will it work, and what if it fails?

Notayesmanspodcast390

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- I’ve seen a couple of commentators talking about ‘zombie companies’ in Japan, which will fold if interest rates rise. It’d be interesting to explore this, and whether it will affect the USA, Europe and the UK — all of which have already seen bankruptcies rising, ahead of Japan’s own reckoning. Secondly, it looks like the USA is worried enough to help support the yen. What do you think? With the Lloyds house price monitor this morning showing 0.1% YoY and 0.0% MoM increases, does this not prove even more problematic for Labours 1.5 million new homes target, as cost of construction costs increase, not just with inflation but increasing regulations around Net Zero etc? "What is the potential impact of US market interventions to 1) keep the oil price below $90 2) bolster the yen?"

Notayesmanspodcast389

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- You emphasise bond rates when the go above 5%. I take that this is important. But when will the crisis come to fruition? Is it predictable? And will other countries' rates also rising have any effect on the severity of the crisis if/when it comes? The statements from members of the Bank of England MPC all appeared unfazed by broad money. Are they correct? Why are they complacent with 3.2% inflation in 2027 (at least the six voting in favour of a hold on base rates)?

Notayesmanspodcast388

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- What's your view of the dilemma of adherence to the self-imposed fiscal rules against the need to fund defence/infrastructure commitments. Shaun, I'd be interested in your view of the 10-year gilt yield, nudging 5.1%. How much of this rise is down to the Middle East situation and oil price, and how much of it to Spendy Andy? I guessed 5% was when it starts to break so we shouldn’t have to wait long. I wonder if we’ll have to have an emergency budget? The lack of volatility and tight ranges, could be a "hint" that the BOJ has finally realised that their interventions so far have only donated money to a few players - and now they could be on the offer - ready to destroy USDJPY when others start the move down - first time clever intervention ?