Notayesmanspodcasts

Notayesmanspodcast372

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on : Japan’s 40-year bond yield at ~4% cuts both ways — it signals a healthier, post-deflation economy and helps pensions/insurers, but raises government borrowing costs and risks financial instability if the shift is too fast. Q: what do you think will happen? With Bailey, the Fed and the ECB suggesting that they sit and wait on interest rates, is it possible that bond rates rise further than they have already while they dither? Could this lead to a bond/financial crisis?

Notayesmanspodcast371

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on Full english Hi Shaun....one for the pod. 10yr gilt at 5.03% this morning. I assume you're about to sound the Klaxon. At what level does stuff start to break? Mark Bishop A question for your pod, Shaun: with the 10-year hovering around 5%, should the Bank of England be a buyer, not a seller? sally copper When will the Bank of England be forced to re-start QE or Yield Curve Control? 😋🤪 Actually, I am really wondering which central bank will be the first ... the Fed, the ECB or the Bank of England. Mr B Shaun, do you see the UK govt or a quasi private BAE issue of a private bond paying 6.5% fixed yield long term a special issue to fund the defence budget & nuclear power plants. As a way to fund both much needed areas to save UK ? Morris May With Gilts up 75bps in March, 2/3 base rate hikes priced in, along with the biggest downgrade in growth for the G7 by -0.5%, higher inflation increasing welfare costs and public sector pay demands and energy bill support, how likely are tax rises in autumn budget?erfect storm

Notayesmanspodcast370

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on Please explain why that matters, what it means and the factors behind the rise in UK bond yields. A question for Friday. If Trump goes America first later in the year and restricts US LNG exports to keep prices down there, what happens in the EU & UK? Shaun for the podcast this week.....what are the reasons and consequences of the BoE holding at 3.75% this morning, when gilt yields have been surging for a couple of weeks now, and I see the 2yr is at 4.4% this morning! Thank you Sir...... To what extent would a UK base rate rise dampen inflation in the coming months, given that the driver of it is a rise in energy prices caused by a supply-side shock? What other policies might be as or more effective? Somewhat tongue in cheek, when will the Bank of England restart QE or Yield Curve Control? With a swing from -50 bps base rate cut now being replaced by+40 bps expectation this year, how badly will this effect OBR forecasts and hence pressure on RR amid calls for increased defence spending and intervention in household energy bills? Q; Shaun can you explain to listeners that the last inflation rate is just indicating a slowing of the rise and previous inflation does not disappear. Q: 2 How people adjust their spending when oil spikes but long term effect will add to core inflation

Notayesmanspodcast369

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the positive move from UK index-linked bonds. : Are we back to the BoE’s Bailey MPC’s singing around the desk next week Britney’s ‘Oops I’ve done it again ‘and say inflation & oil is ‘Transitory ‘. Pressure on anaemic growth and increased borrowing costs of national debt make for a difficult relationship between Bailey and Rachel Reeves? Also questions on UK hydro output and solar power output.

Notayesmanspodcast368

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the January weakening in UK money supply growth. Q: will 10 year UK Gilt rate hit 5% this time? Given the ECB is 100% to raise rates if this war prolongs, do you think Bailey will abandon QT, raise rates or both? I know you have covered this to an extent in your excellent blog today Is the war against Iran a convenient vehicle for UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves to blame all her mismanagement of the economy?