True Odds: A Prediction Markets Podcast

March Madness Final Four: Michigan–Arizona Coin Flip + Illinois–UConn Debate

The Final Four is set in Indianapolis — and the college season is almost over. Mikey Markets and Joey Rockets recap the all-time Duke vs UConn collapse (including the near-technical moment with Hurley), then break down the Final Four with updated odds: Michigan 35%, Arizona 34%, Illinois 17%, UConn 13%. They split picks on both games: Illinois vs UConn (Joey leans UConn, Mikey rides with Illinois) Michigan vs Arizona (Joey sticks with Arizona, Mikey takes Michigan) Then they talk strategy: whether to take profit on Arizona, the Big Ten to win the title market, and a simple “seed to win” market where you can back the 1-seed to win it all. They wrap with “one shining moment” — UConn’s miracle buzzer beater and a personal Michigan moment at the United Center. #MarchMadness #FinalFour #NCAATournament #CollegeBasketball #TrueOdds Chapters 00:00 — Intro: Final Four is set 00:41 — Duke vs UConn: 19-point lead blown + miracle shot 02:26 — Houston out, Illinois gets respect 02:56 — 0.3 seconds + Hurley confrontation controversy 04:48 — Updated odds: Michigan 35%, Arizona 34%, Illinois 17%, UConn 13% 06:05 — Final Four Game 1: Illinois vs UConn (split picks) 09:49 — Final Four Game 2: Michigan vs Arizona (“true national championship”) 13:51 — Sight lines in football stadiums + free throws factor 15:18 — KenPom nugget: best matchup since 1996/97 16:35 — Recap: Mikey on Illinois/Michigan, Joey on UConn/Arizona 17:04 — Arizona futures: take profit or let it ride? 17:42 — Conference champ market: Big Ten angle 20:10 — Seed-to-win market: 1-seed at 75 cents 22:05 — One shining moment: UConn buzzer beater + Michigan moment 25:35 — Wrap Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

March Madness Sweet 16 Preview: Purdue, Iowa, Arizona, Houston + Friday Bangers

March Madness rolls on, and so do we. Mikey Markets is joined by Joey Rockets and Coach Ryan — fresh off an all-time debut where he called a sharp first-round upset and now sits 99.8th percentile in his bracket. Joey admits basketball isn’t his thing (and he’s basically throwing darts), but Arizona is still alive — and the Sweet 16 slate is stacked across Thursday and Friday. We break down every game we cover: Purdue vs Texas Nebraska vs Iowa (Cornpocalypse) Arizona vs Arkansas Houston vs Illinois (late-night sweat) Duke vs St. John’s (Mikey goes contrarian) Alabama vs Michigan UConn vs Michigan State Iowa State vs Tennessee Then we hit two markets: Which conference wins the title? (Big Ten vs Big 12) How many buzzer beaters in the tournament? Drop a comment with your picks and your best upset. #MarchMadness #Sweet16 #NCAATournament #TrueOdds #CollegeBasketball #bracketology  Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/ Chapters: 00:00 — Intro + Coach Ryan’s insane bracket start 01:14 — Joey’s bracket pain + tournament chaos recap 02:15 — Updated title odds (Arizona/Michigan favorites) + Cash Tag Awards plug 04:11 — Purdue vs Texas (Coach Ryan: Purdue by double digits) 06:26 — Nebraska vs Iowa (“Cornpocalypse”) 10:23 — Arizona vs Arkansas (Acuff Jr. vs Arizona defense) 12:23 — Houston vs Illinois (pace + defense vs offense) 16:12 — Friday slate begins: Duke vs St. John’s (Mikey’s upset pick) 20:05 — Alabama vs Michigan (Michigan defense + Chicago crowd) 22:58 — UConn vs Michigan State (Izzo second-half territory) 27:06 — Iowa State vs Tennessee (Jefferson injury watch) 29:35 — Conference winner market (Big Ten vs Big 12 + ACC value note) 32:30 — Buzzer beater market (3+ vs 4+ discussion) 34:24 — Wrap + Indy Final Four talk

March Madness 2026 Predictions: First Round Upsets & Final Four Dark Horses

March Madness is officially here! The True Odds crew is joined by college hoops aficionado Ryan to break down the 2026 NCAA Tournament. From double-digit seeds ready to bust brackets to a heated debate over BYU vs. Gonzaga, we’re covering every angle of the road to Indianapolis. 🏆 In this episode: First Round Upsets: Why High Point, USF, and Mizzou are on upset alert. Sweet 16 Locks: Joey’s bold Vanderbilt play vs. Mike’s BYU hype. Final Four & National Title: Is Duke playing the best ball in the country, or are they walking into a "Group of Death"? The Triple-Double Prop: Will we see history made in the 2026 tournament? 🎟️ CASH TAG AWARDS: Don't miss the best of market culture on May 4th in NYC. Get your tickets at cashtag.stocktwits.com! 0:00 – Intro: Meet Ryan (The Brackets Expert) 1:30 – Productivity vs. The Tournament: Office Culture in March 2:15 – The "First Four" & UMBC Magic 3:00 – ROUND 1 UPSETS: High Point, USF, and UCF 7:30 – Mizzou vs. Miami: The "Hornet's Nest" in St. Louis 9:45 – SWEET 16 RUNS: Yukon, Gonzaga, and Vanderbilt 11:45 – The BYU Hype: Is AJ Dybantsa the Real Deal? 15:30 – FINAL FOUR PICKS: Duke’s Pace vs. The "Group of Death" 19:00 – Why Arizona has the Easiest Path to Indy 21:30 – NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: Duke, Arizona, or Houston? 26:00 – Wacky Prop Bet: Will we see a Triple-Double? 32:00 – Outro: Join the Conversation! Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

Max Crosby Deal COLLAPSES + Palantir Rumors + March Madness Picks

Welcome back to True Odds with Mikey Markets and Joey Rockets — and this episode is loaded. We start with World Baseball Classic chaos: Team USA manager Mark DeRosa said they’d already clinched… then the U.S. lost 8–5 to Italy and now needs help based on a wild pool-play math scenario (Italy/Mexico runs matter). Meanwhile, the other must-watch game is Dominican Republic vs Venezuela — with huge implications for the bracket and for our picks (Joey’s Samurai Japan is cruising; Mikey’s on the DR). Then we hit a headline we’ve basically never seen: the Ravens backed out of the Max Crosby trade after the deal was “done,” sending Crosby back to Vegas… and the Ravens immediately pivoted to Trey Hendrickson. We talk buyer’s remorse, what it does to Crosby’s price, and why the Bears odds just got interesting. We also recap an all-time sleeper stock: Casey’s (the “rural rocket”) continuing its insane long-term run. Finally, we preview March Madness with a practical champion checklist (KenPom offense/defense + early AP poll trends), give early picks (Arizona) and a value angle (Houston), and close with an all-time comparison:  Arizona to win the Natty… or Kim Kardashian to pass the bar exam? Drop a comment with your WBC take and your March Madness winner. Chapters 00:00 — Intro + why this episode is chaos 00:35 — WBC drama: Mark DeRosa “clinched” comment + USA loses to Italy 02:47 — Pool B math: how USA advances (runs scored scenarios) 03:37 — Why this is a bad look for Team USA 05:14 — Can teams “manage” a low score? What to watch for 06:38 — Mikey on DR; Joey on Samurai Japan (knockout round implications) 09:10 — Max Crosby trade reversal: Ravens back out + Trey Hendrickson pivot 11:26 — Bears odds + what this does to Crosby’s market 14:39 — Casey’s recap: 27,000%+ return “rural rocket” 16:28 — Palantir rumor: monitoring bets + insider deterrence 22:00 — March Madness preview: champion criteria + early picks 23:41 — Joey’s pick: Arizona 25:05 — Mikey’s value pick: Houston (8 cents) 28:20 — Arizona title odds vs Kim Kardashian passing the bar 33:13 — Closing: fingers crossed Team USA (and tonight’s huge games) #trueodds  Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

Casey’s Pizza, WBC Futures, Bears Trade Hopes & GTA 6 Price Market

Welcome back to True Odds with Mikey Markets and Joey Rockets. We open with a quick recap: NVIDIA beat (and basically “saved the market”), CrowdStrike beat after peers signaled strength, and Mikey celebrates a win on Traitors USA — plus Joey officially got hooked. Then we check in on Bitcoin after John Morgan’s call: it didn’t tag 60K, bounced hard, and is now ripping higher — with 80K looking closer than a retest of the low 60s. This week’s main earnings watch is a sneaky one: Casey’s General Stores (CASY) — the Midwest convenience store legend and fifth-largest pizza retailer in the U.S. Joey highlights a perfect recent track record of earnings beats, while Mikey confirms the real alpha: Casey’s breakfast pizza. Sports are back: the World Baseball Classic is underway. Mikey doubles down on Dominican Republic to win Pool D, Joey rides Japan to win Pool C, and we both agree the USA should handle Pool B unless something goes sideways. Then we hit NFL transaction chaos: Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026? The Bears odds jumped from 23% to 48% in a day, and Mikey is fully manifesting an elite pass rusher in Chicago — especially after surprise news that center Drew Dalman retired at 27, opening more cap questions. We wrap with the random market of the week: Will GTA 6 cost over $100? We debate “standard edition” vs bundles, why $100 would be wild, and then Joey casually nails a GTA: Vice City release date question like it’s nothing. Drop a comment: Who are you taking in the WBC? Is Maxx Crosby actually headed to Chicago? And what’s your GTA 6 price prediction? Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/ Chapters 0:00 - Welcome + recap setup 0:20 - Earnings recap: NVDA beat, market reaction 0:45 - CrowdStrike beat + thesis confirmed 1:10 - Traitors USA finale: Rob wins + Joey gets hooked 2:50 - Bitcoin 60K vs 80K recap + John Morgan nailed it 4:05 - Earnings of the week: Casey’s (CASY) preview 4:40 - Casey’s pizza angle + 10/10 earnings beats 5:20 - Mikey’s Casey’s breakfast pizza endorsement 6:55 - World Baseball Classic underway: DR vs Japan positions 7:30 - DR to win Pool D: lineup looks stacked 8:45 - Japan to win Pool C + USA Pool B flag planting 10:40 - Maxx Crosby 2026 market: Bears jump 23% to 48% 12:00 - Drew Dalman retires at 27 + cap space theory 13:55 - Detroit trades David Montgomery: “Sonic & Knuckles” broken up 16:15 - Random market: Will GTA 6 cost over $100? 17:25 - Standard edition rule + why “no shot” 20:05 - Vice City release date trivia + Joey nails it 21:20 - Outro + comment/market suggestions