General Offensive - General Uprising

A Tale of Two Summits

The Trump-Xi summit was about two things: China getting Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and America expressing its relaxation at the idea of the People’s Liberation Army crossing the Strait of Formosa. Something I talked about on yesterday’s BBC Arabic spot, which I haven’t developed here, is related to nuclear proliferation in the Western Pacific: the overture for the Putin-Xi summit was a fairly huge nuclear forces exercise involving Russian Strategic Rocket Forces, the Russian Northern Fleet (do they still have the Order of the Red Banner?) and the Russian Pacific Fleet. The fact that I know about this exercise shows that everyone knows about this exercise, and it was intended to demonstrate to all of us that Russia is a nuclear-armed superpower, and that their temporary inability to conduct successful operations in Ukraine or to support allies in the Middle East is irrelevant to that superpower thing. Cast this against: * China’s understanding that one day Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin won’t be President of Russia, there will be instability during a secession period, and China will take advantage of the moment; and * The rational response of nuclear-capable states during the American Recessional to the Western Hemisphere intended by the Trump Administration, will be to say, ‘we’d better get a bomb’. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe [https://nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

Israeli Parliament Dissolved

Netanyahu is trying to keep the late October election date by tabling conscription exemption legislation for young Haredi men, and maybe the Haredi parties will go for it. Their aim isn’t to lose Netanyahu the election (which might be close enough to have Netanyahu as caretaker PM ringing their doorbells in search of coalition partners). It’s to get Netanyahu to dump his ideas like lowering the voting age, in order to make parliamentary time for that conscription bill.What about the Opposition? Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett are both former Prime Ministers (though Lapid’s term was short); Lapid has held significant portfolios; both have reasonable centre-right cred. Both will be standing against the guy who had October Seventh on his watch, and who has let Donald Trump switch off Israeli operations in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. What to expect? Expect Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners to provoke everyone on the planet against the Israeli Government in hopes of creating an upswell of nationalism. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe [https://nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

Starting the war again, again

The radio presenter said that the US and Israel were ‘plotting’ a resumption of hostilities. It’s not ‘plotting’ if the resumption is being signalled very clearly: it’s planning. The Iranians are definitely signalling engagement; the Pakistanis are definitely signalling engagement; the US might accept some form of reparations to Iran, they clearly think there’s some possibility of the Iranians accepting a ‘moratorium’ on enriching uranium for a period of years. If the US thinks a bit more hard pounding would bring General Vahidi to a more receptive frame of mind, though, they might need to manage expectations. A lot of this ratcheting from Israel is happening in Lebanon and Gaza. A lot of the ratcheting from Iran is happening in the UAE. There’s also the constant Israeli pressure seeking to provoke and suppress a West Bank uprising; that’s going to be its own podcast, though. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe [https://nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

The Right Hand of Islam(ist franchise terrorism)

This isn’t your daddy’s Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine with the sponsorship and the finance and the refined ideology. It’s 2026 and the Iranians are running Scottish separatist botnets, untrained mooks are making non-flammable petrol bombs and the Right of Islam has got a logo with only one misspelled word and a shmexy sniper rifle! This could easily be a guy in a basement with a phone; playing at being a franchise terrorist mastermind; or it could even be two guys!Here’s about the most evidence you’ll find that it’s an actual organisation: https://icct.nl/publication/hybrid-threat-signals-assessing-possible-iranian-involvement-recent-attacks-europe The thing about Brady? It’s a threat against Donald Trump that kind of bizarrely tries to position Ivanka Trump as a bit of a slut. It’s on the Interwebs, but I’ll leave off sharing it here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe [https://nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]

Are you any less dead if you're murdered by a stochastic terrorist?

How do the Germans survive when they treat all terrorism as crime in law?Also, is ‘stochastic terrorism’ some kind of meaningless jargon? Did I just record a 25 minute video without once referring to World War 3.0?There is, by the way, a prize for recognising the source of my definition of terrorism. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe [https://nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_2]