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Political Cheat Sheet: FBI Search Scrambles Everything

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Political Cheat Sheet: Primary results are shifting the conversation

Good Monday morning! My mission is to bring unbiased political information and analysis to Americans in a way that is interesting and engaging. Thank you for your support! This week’s poll: Last week’s poll was Should Joe Biden run for President in 2024? I’m also including the results from two weeks ago, when I asked Should Donald Trump run for President in 2024? Looks like you all are interested in some new blood on both sides! The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image. What's happening this week This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, August 8, 2022. Today is 92 days until the November midterm elections (about 13 weeks). We are 820 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 27 months). Top Storylines There is still such a thing as “too far” in politics * For the past few years, it has felt like there was no limit to how extreme politicians could get without paying a penalty at the ballot box. Candidates of both parties have said and done all manner of outrageous or over-the-line things, yet it seemed to only make them more popular with the base. Last week, in my home state of Missouri, this theory was put to a major test. Fortunately, the outrageous candidate lost. * Former Governor Eric Greitens, who resigned after not even a year and a half in office, was a leading candidate for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate. He created numerous scandals and outrages, including allegedly tying up his mistress in his basement, stripping her naked, spitting in her mouth, and photographing her for blackmail. In the ensuing divorce, his wife alleged he had physically and verbally abused her and their sons, even hitting their three-year-old son and knocking out a tooth. He turned his MAGA up to 11 for his Senatorial comeback bid, issuing an online ad in which he and a heavily-armed SWAT team executed a no-knock raid on a suburban house in order to hunt “RINOs,” or Republicans In Name Only. Despite all this, he led the field in most polls until only a month or so ago. * The “RINO Hunter” ad seemed to backfire on Greitens, turning off the same undecided voters he needed to achieve victory. Several large ad buys carpeted the airwaves in July to highlight his alleged abuse of his wife and children, which also had a clear effect on the polls. In the end, despite a half-endorsement from former President Donald Trump, he only earned 18.9% of the vote. Greitens finished almost 27 points behind the winner, State Attorney General Eric Schmitt, and only won three of the state’s 114 counties. * Why this matters: Politics is still brutal and divisive right now. Candidates continue to go to the extremes in search of attention and votes. But I think we have seen that there is an edge. Candidates can go too far. Between Greitens and Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC), who was sent packing after numerous outrages and poor choices, candidates who are too extreme actually can lose support and votes rather than rack up more and more support. There’s a tipping point out there - the problem is that it’s WAY out there. * Bottom line: There is reason to hope that our country does still have some sense of decency… you just have to dig pretty deep to find it right now. Kansas abortion amendment changes electoral calculus * This week we saw the first hint of what could become another major factor in the left’s favor this November. Voters in Kansas resoundingly defeated [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/02/us/kansas-abortion-rights-vote.html] an amendment to the state constitution that would have allowed the legislature to restrict or outlaw abortion. The pro-choice side won 59-41 in one of the reddest of red states after both sides spent millions of dollars educating voters about the issue. Turnout was more than double [https://www.cjonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/08/03/high-primary-voter-turnout-kansas-abortion-amendment-election-results/10225025002/] that of some recent primaries, with many voters unaffiliated with either party showing up to vote solely on the amendment. * Even pro-choice activists were surprised by the magnitude of both the electoral turnout and the win. As shown in the fascinating graphic by The Washington Post shown below [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/03/abortion-kansas-midterm-elections/], every single county voted to the left of the 2020 Presidential election. As the Post explains, “The (diagonal) line indicates an equivalent margin in the 2020 presidential contest and in the amendment vote.” This was no fluke or anomaly; voters knew what they were doing and were cold to the amendment. * Why this matters: Democrats hope that abortion rights are truly as popular as this vote made it seem. They plan to double down [https://rollcall.com/2022/08/04/democrats-double-down-on-abortion-rights-after-kansas-referendum/] on the issue moving forward. Unfortunately for them, abortion will not actually be on very many ballots in November, with measures currently expected in Kentucky, Michigan, California and Vermont [https://www.npr.org/2022/08/05/1115808472/kansas-abortion-ballot-measure-campaign-lessons]. None of these states have competitive Senate races this year that could help the Dems overcome the general headwinds they face. The one thing you can count on is that Democrats will now do everything they can to convince voters everywhere that “abortion is on the ballot” when they vote for candidates. Get ready to hear that phrase a lot. What remains to be seen is just how motivating such an effort is. Holding a separate, clear vote on an issue is a lot different than voting on candidates who hold all kinds of other opinions. No matter how strongly voters feel about abortion, they’ll also be taking into account the economy, inflation, taxes, and everything else they typically consider when deciding on a candidate. * Bottom line: It’s not easy to make an election a referendum about one issue if that issue is not literally on the ballot. The news out of Kansas gives the Dems hope, but it is likely not enough to transform a red wave into a blue one. Reconciliation bill heads toward final passage * Sunday afternoon, the Senate voted 51-50 [https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/07/democrats-senate-reconciliation-votearama-00050222], with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the tie, to pass the Democrats’ long-awaited budget reconciliation package. The House plans to come back into session to vote on it this Friday. * The bill has major provisions for climate, clean energy, taxes, health care, prescription drug prices and more. It allocates over $300 billion for climate change, extends Obamacare subsidies, increases conservation funding, and provides drought relief. The new costs are more than offset by new revenue, including a 15% minimum tax on large corporations, a 1% excise tax on stock buybacks, and increased funding for IRS enforcement. * Why this matters: The recent string of wins continues to roll for Biden. In just the past few weeks, he has notched wins on this bill, the CHIPS Act, a burn pit bill, a historic gun reform bill, the approval of Finland and Sweden joining NATO, and the killing of al-Qaida boss Ayman al-Zawahri in Kabul. Combined with the recent pullback in energy prices and strong jobs reports, things are starting to look up for the party in power. These positive developments couldn’t have come at a better time for the Dems. If the news hadn’t turned around, they may have been headed for a clobbering like no modern party has seen. * Bottom line: The Democrats are still more likely than not to take losses in November, but they have finally taken steps to mitigate the damage. What I'm Watching Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week: Politics & Elections * Axelrod: Biden wins may reduce midterm headwinds facing Democrats to ‘Category 3’ [https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3584302-axelrod-biden-wins-may-reduce-midterm-headwinds-facing-democrats-to-category-3/] * Fetterman Plans His Return to Campaign Trail in Pennsylvania Senate Race [https://getpocket.com/read/3675623462] * The Republican National Convention Will Be Held in Milwaukee in 2024 [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/05/us/politics/rnc-convention-milwaukee-2024.html] Foreign Policy * U.S. Drone Strike Kills al-Qaida Leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul [https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3114362/us-drone-strike-kills-al-qaida-leader-in-kabul/utm_source/us-drone-strike-kills-al-qaida-leader-in-kabul/] * The missiles that killed Qaeda boss Ayman al-Zawahiri were likely a secret variant that uses sharp blades, not explosives, to take out targets [https://www.businessinsider.com/missiles-killed-al-qaeda-boss-likely-used-blades-not-explosives-2022-8] * From the one-China policy to the Taiwan Relations Act, here’s what to know [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/06/taiwan-china-policy-assurances-military/] Policy & Legislation * Senate Passes Bill to Expand Benefits for Veterans Exposed to Burn Pits [https://getpocket.com/read/3673661060] * Senate votes 95-1 to add Sweden, Finland to NATO [https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3586658-senate-ratifies-accession-of-sweden-and-finland-to-nato/?utm_source=pocket_mylist] * McConnell dismisses claim he was ‘played’ on reconciliation bill [https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3587580-mcconnell-dismisses-claim-he-was-played-on-reconciliation-bill/?utm_source=pocket_mylist] * Democrats add stock buyback tax, scrap carried interest to win Sinema over [https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3590121-democrats-add-stock-buyback-tax-scrap-carried-interest-to-win-sinema-over/?utm_source=pocket_mylist] Miscellaneous * Phones of top Pentagon officials were wiped of Jan. 6 messages [https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/02/pentagon-jan-6-phones-wiped/?utm_source=pocket_mylist] * Lawyer Says He Intends to Give Alex Jones’s Texts to House Jan. 6 Panel [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/05/us/politics/alex-jones-texts-jan-6-committee.html] * Third Person Dies after Being Struck by Lightning Outside White House [https://www.nationalreview.com/news/third-person-dies-after-being-struck-by-lightning-outside-white-house/?utm_source=pocket_mylist] Balance of Power House of Representatives One change this week. Democrats hold a  [https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown]220-210 [https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown] advantage [https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown] over the GOP. The Republicans lost one member last week with the tragic death [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/03/rep-jackie-walorski-indiana-republican-killed-car-accident/] of Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-IN) in a car accident. Five seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 10-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote. If a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails. If Republicans pick up six or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber. Senate The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats [https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm]. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote. Polling President Average: 39.3% Approve, 55.6% Disapprove (Net: -16.3%) [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/] Change (in Net) from last week: No change Recent trend: President Biden’s approval rate has not yet significantly improved, despite his recent victories. His approval level is now 4.8 points below where President Trump’s was [https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Index:_Comparison_of_opinion_polling_during_the_Trump_and_Biden_administrations] at this point in his term. Congress Average: 19.6% Approve, 71.0% Disapprove (Net: -51.4%) [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/congressional_job_approval-903.html] Change (in Net) from last week: Improved 2.6% Recent trend: Over the past two months, Congress’s net approval gap has worsened by about 7 points. Generic Ballot Average: GOP +0.1% [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html] Change from last week: GOP advantage down 0.8% Recent trend: The GOP advantage that has held steady throughout 2022 is on the razor’s edge of evaporating. At this point, the parties are effectively tied. Due to the makeup of the Congressional map, Republicans have an inherent advantage of a few points, but the additional margin they held throughout the spring and first half of the summer is gone. On the Calendar President Today, President Biden plans to travel to Kentucky to view damage from recent flooding, assuming he is sufficiently recovered from COVID. House Scheduled for recess this week and the next five weeks [https://www.majorityleader.gov/calendar], but tentatively planning to briefly return this Friday to vote on the reconciliation package. Senate Scheduled for recess this week and the next three weeks [https://www.senate.gov/legislative/2022_schedule.htm], but subject to change if there are any hiccups in passing the reconciliation package. Upcoming Primaries Full list of primaries [https://www.270towin.com/2022-election-calendar/] Tomorrow: Tuesday, August 9 - four states with federal primaries: Connecticut * Senate: Richard Blumenthal (D) is running for a third term. He has already been nominated by his party at its convention. Three Republicans are competing for the chance to face him in November, but their odds of prevailing are long. This seat will stay with the Dems in deep-blue Connecticut. * House: Connecticut has five House seats, unchanged from the 2010 Census. The incumbents, all Democrats, are all running for re-election and are all expected to win tomorrow. In November, keep an eye on the 2nd District covering the eastern half of the state, held by Rep. Joe Courtney (D), and the 5th District covering the northwestern portion, held by Rep. Jahana Hayes (D). Both districts are rated as D+2, making them potential battlegrounds in November should a red wave materialize. Minnesota * Senate: No Senate race. * House: Minnesota retains the same eight districts it had in the 2010 Census. Incumbents are seeking re-election in seven of the eight. Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R) died in February, so the election in the 1st District will be a special election to serve out the remainder of his term. The district is nominally R+7, but it has been extremely close each of the past three elections. National attention will be on the 5th District, where controversial Rep. Ilhan Omar (D) has drawn stiff competition and big opposition money in her race to keep her safe Democratic seat. Vermont * Senate: Patrick Leahy (D) is retiring after eight terms. His likely successor is Rep. Peter Welch (D), who has served eight terms as Vermont’s only representative in the House. He is expected to win handily, both tomorrow and in November. * House: With Rep. Welch stepping down to run for Senate, the race to succeed him in Vermont’s single House seat is likely to be won by State Senate President pro tem Becca Balint (D). She is expected to cruise to victory in November. Wisconsin * Senate: Ron Johnson (R) is running for a third term. He is expected to face a stiff challenge from Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes (D), after the other major Dem candidates dropped out and endorsed Barnes. Preliminary polling shows a very close race in November for this 50-50 state. * House: Wisconsin retains the same eight districts it had in the 2010 Census. Incumbents are seeking re-election in seven of the eight. Rep. Ron Kind (D) is retiring in the 3rd District, which leans R+4. This is a prime pickup opportunity for the GOP, which has consolidated behind Derrick Van Orden, a former Navy SEAL and 2020 candidate for the seat. In Closing… I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading! —Eric Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe [https://getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Political Cheat Sheet: Biden finally gets some wins

My mission is to bring unbiased political information and analysis to Americans in a way that is interesting and engaging. Thank you for your support! This week’s poll: The results of last week’s poll: Should the federal government take dramatic action to counteract climate change? We had 148 votes cast. Thanks to everyone who participated! The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image. What's happening this week This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, August 1, 2022. Today is 99 days until the November midterm elections (about 14 weeks). We are 827 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 27 months). Top Storylines Biden finally scores some wins * Over the past two months, I’ve often apologized for feeling like I’m being overly critical of President Biden. Unfortunately for him, though, just about everything that could go wrong has been going wrong for quite some time. Last week was the first time in months that it felt like he was seeing a glimmer of hope. * As we’ll discuss in a second, the yearlong logjam finally broke and Congress passed a semiconductor and research bill to shore up domestic supplies and help the U.S. compete with China in this critical space. After weeks in the stratosphere, gas prices finally felt like they were coming back down to earth, although they’re still hovering near $4 nationwide [https://gasprices.aaa.com/]. * The biggest news was Senator Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) shocking reversal on the climate, energy, tax increase, and prescription drug bill he had so publicly walked away from just weeks ago. The bill is being called the “most ambitious climate action undertaken by the U.S. [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/climate/climate-change-deal-manchin.html]” This legislation now looks poised to become law over the coming weeks. * Why this matters: Biden desperately needed these wins. However, he’s still a long way from being out of the woods. The economy is still not in great shape, and last week’s news that we have had two consecutive quarters of economic contraction (which led to a very public argument about whether or not we are technically in a recession - also more on this in a second) stepped on Biden’s good news week. * Bottom line: Having some wins going into November may mitigate the damage of the predicted red tsunami and help it only hit as a normal wave. It may not be perfect, but Biden and his team will gladly take it. Congress passes semiconductor bill * On Thursday, the House passed the CHIPS Act [https://techcrunch.com/2022/07/28/chips-act-passes-house-on-way-to-biden-signing/] with a broad, bipartisan vote of 243-187. It previously passed the Senate 64-33 [https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/27/politics/senate-vote-chips-bill-semiconductor-manufacturing/index.html], and now awaits President Biden’s signature. The bill will provide over $280 billion [https://www.wsj.com/articles/semiconductor-chips-bill-congress-explained-11658866622] in total funding, with $52.7 billion of the total directed toward domestic semiconductor production. About $200 billion is directed toward scientific research and the National Science Foundation. It also reauthorizes NASA and provides funding for Supreme Court security. * Republicans were fuming over the bill’s passage, not necessarily because of the substance, but because of what they felt was a deceitful move by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). As we discussed recently, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said over the July 4 weekend that Republicans would not help pass a semiconductor incentives bill if the Democrats were going to move forward with a reconciliation package. Reconciliation appeared dead as a doornail when Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) backed out a couple of weeks ago, which made Republicans comfortable moving the CHIPS Act forward. No sooner had it passed than Manchin and Schumer announced they had been secretly continuing negotiations on a reconciliation package and had reached an agreement. * Why this matters: Democrats are more than happy to pull one over on McConnell and give him what they feel is a taste of his own medicine. They also are happy to finally have Republicans be on the receiving end of a Manchin power move. I would say this double-cross would poison the well for legislation the rest of the year, but I think that ship already sailed long ago. * Bottom line: The Senate is now finished working across the aisle for 2022. Anything else major will have to wait until either a lame duck session or early 2023. Are we in a recession? * The other big story from last week was the news that the U.S. experienced its second consecutive quarter of GDP contraction [https://www.npr.org/2022/07/28/1113649843/gdp-2q-economy-2022-recession-two-quarters], which historically has been used as a shorthand definition of a recession. The White House, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and a host of other surrogates took to the airwaves ahead of and immediately after the report to try and change the narrative, arguing that the technical definition of a “recession” includes many more factors than this rule of thumb. This became the predominant argument of the political class for at least three or four days last week. * Technically, the White House is correct: the National Bureau of Economic Research takes numerous other factors into account [https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions] when deciding whether or not to label events “recessions.” However, this yet again looked to me like a messaging mistake for the Biden administration. Rather than making the discussion about the positive news of the week (see above), they turned the narrative into a grand example of the Streisand Effect [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect]: when attempts to minimize or distract attention from a piece of information have the unintended consequence of drawing further attention to the issue. * Why this matters: The multi-day argument over the definition of “recession” ultimately led far more people to talk about there being a recession than if the administration hadn’t made the definition such an issue. People are feeling the pinch of higher prices, and they don’t much care what word you use to label it. They just want to know that their elected leaders care about them and are working hard to fix the problem. * Bottom line: The Biden team continues to be tone-deaf in its efforts to address the economic needs and concerns of everyday Americans. They need to bring in some high-level leadership that can focus on how their words connect to ordinary people and stop focusing on eggheadery such as this. What I'm Watching Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week: Politics & Elections * How Can Democrats Persuade Voters They’re Not a Party of Rich Elites? [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/26/us/politics/democrats-working-class-voters.html] * No, really — What if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez runs for president? [https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3578887-the-memo-no-really-what-if-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-runs-for-president/?utm_source=pocket_mylist] * Revolving door creates questions and complications for Kamala Harris [https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3572304-revolving-door-creates-questions-and-complications-for-kamala-harris/?utm_source=pocket_mylist] * Republicans Confront Unexpected Online Money Slowdown [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/26/us/politics/online-fundraising-republicans-democrats.html] * Fox News snubbed Trump’s speech, in what’s becoming a pattern. [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/27/us/politics/fox-news-trump-speech.html] Policy & Legislation * White House says Biden will make decision on student loans [https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3575251-white-house-says-biden-will-make-decision-on-student-loans/?utm_source=pocket_mylist] * What is reconciliation, and what are Democrats going to get done with it? [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/28/reconciliation-joe-manchin/?utm_source=pocket_mylist] * Senate Democrats running out of time to move agenda [https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3573908-senate-democrats-running-out-of-time-to-move-agenda/?utm_source=pocket_mylist] * Bill restricting Big Cat ownership, made famous by ‘Tiger King’ and pushed by Carole Baskin, passes House [https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/3580230-bill-restricting-big-cat-ownership-made-famous-by-tiger-king-passes-house/?utm_source=pocket_mylist] * Permanent daylight saving time hits brick wall in House [https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3571007-permanent-daylight-saving-time-hits-brick-wall-in-house/?utm_source=pocket_mylist] * Biden Is Facing Crisis After Crisis. But Are They Emergencies? [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/27/us/politics/biden-emergency-declarations.html] * Democrats introduce bill to enact term limits for Supreme Court justices [https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3575349-democrats-introduce-bill-to-enact-term-limits-for-supreme-court-justices/?utm_source=pocket_mylist] Congress * Former congressman charged with insider trading [https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/3572973-former-congressman-charged-with-insider-trading/?utm_source=pocket_mylist] * Pelosi’s husband sells off up to $5 million worth of chipmaker stock ahead of semiconductor bill vote [https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3577326-pelosis-husband-sells-off-up-to-5-million-worth-of-chipmaker-stock-ahead-of-semiconductor-bill-vote/?utm_source=pocket_mylist] * Angry callers are threatening Congress. These interns are on the front lines [https://rollcall.com/2022/07/28/angry-callers-threatening-congress-interns-front-lines/] * New House security program to provide members $10K to safeguard their homes [https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3573901-new-house-security-program-to-provide-members-10k-to-safeguard-their-homes/?utm_source=pocket_mylist] * Freedom Caucus demands rule changes for House and GOP conference [https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3576902-freedom-caucus-demands-rule-changes-for-house-and-gop-conference/?utm_source=pocket_mylist] And a fun one: * Senator jokes about using Defense Production Act to save Choco Taco [https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/3574816-senator-jokes-about-using-defense-production-act-to-save-choco-taco/] Balance of Power House of Representatives No changes this week. Democrats hold a  [https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown]220-211 [https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown] advantage [https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown] over the GOP. Four seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 9-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote. If a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails. If Republicans pick up five or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber. Senate The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats [https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm]. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote. Polling President Average: 39.7% Approve, 56.0% Disapprove (Net: -16.3%) [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/] Change (in Net) from last week: Improved 2.7% Recent trend: President Biden bounced back this week, almost improving his net by 3 points. He’s still about 3 points lower than he was two months ago, though, and has a long way to go to get back to positive approval. His approval level is now 3.8 points below where President Trump’s was [https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Index:_Comparison_of_opinion_polling_during_the_Trump_and_Biden_administrations] at this point in his term. Congress Average: 18.4% Approve, 72.4% Disapprove (Net: -54.0%) [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/congressional_job_approval-903.html] Change (in Net) from last week: Worsened 0.3% Recent trend: Over the past two months, Congress’s net approval gap has worsened by about 8 points. Generic Ballot Average: GOP +0.9% [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html] Change from last week: GOP advantage down 1.6% Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage since mid-January, but it has shown some signs of narrowing in recent weeks. On the Calendar President No travel announced. House Recess this week and the next six weeks [https://www.majorityleader.gov/calendar]. Senate In session this week, recess the next four weeks [https://www.senate.gov/legislative/2022_schedule.htm]. Upcoming Primaries Full list of primaries [https://www.270towin.com/2022-election-calendar/] Tomorrow: Tuesday, August 2 - five states with federal primaries: Arizona * Senate: Big GOP race to see who goes up against Sen. Mark Kelly (D) in November. I covered this race a few weeks ago. It looks like this is coming down to the wire as a two-man race between Trump-backed venture capitalist and Peter Thiel acolyte Blake Masters and former solar energy exec Jim Lamon. Tons of cash has been spent in this race by both candidates as well as outside PACs. Masters initially separated himself from the crowd after Trump’s endorsement but has lost some ground after some stumbles and unearthing of past controversial statements. Lamon’s personal fortune has allowed him to continue pounding the airwaves to capitalize on Masters’ missteps. This one will come down to the wire. * House: Arizona has nine House seats, and incumbents are running for re-election in all but one, where Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is retiring in the 6th District. Her seat is a strong pickup opportunity for the Republicans, as the new district leans R+3. Also watch the 2nd District, where Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran has been redistricted into an R+6 district. Seven Republicans are vying for the nomination to face him in November. Six-term GOP Rep. David Schweikert is also facing a strong primary challenge in the 1st District, after multiple ethical issues in recent years. Kansas * Senate: Two-term incumbent Sen. Jerry Moran (R) is running for re-election and is expected to coast to victory against token opposition. * House: Kansas has four districts, but only two-term Rep. Sharice Davids faces a strong challenge this year in the R+1 2nd District, on the outskirts of Kansas City. Two Republicans are battling for the chance to face her in November. * Ballot Issue: The largest attention tomorrow will be on the ballot proposal to amend the State Constitutional regarding abortion [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/31/us/politics/kansas-abortion-vote.html]. This will be the first major ballot test nationwide in the wake of the Dobbs decision and is being closely watched by many other states. Michigan * Senate: No Senate race. * House: Michigan lost one seat in the 2020 Census and now has 13. The reshuffling of the map has created several interesting situations, with two incumbent Republicans facing one another for the new 4th District, two incumbent Democrats facing off in both the 11th and 12th Districts, and no incumbents running in the 10th or 13th Districts. Major national attention has also fallen on the GOP primary in the 3rd District, where incumbent Peter Meijer, one of only 10 Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump, is seeking re-election. National Democrats have spent significant money trying to promote Meijer’s opponent John Gibbs, a staunch Trump ally, drawing criticism from both the left and right for hypocrisy. Missouri * Senate: Two-term incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt (R) is retiring. The GOP primary race to succeed him is coming down to three main candidates. In alphabetical order, they are: Former Governor Eric Greitens, six-term Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler*, and Attorney General Eric Schmitt. Greitens has received a lot of national attention for his attempt to return to glory after resigning from his governorship in 2017 amid numerous scandals. After leading the pack for much of the race, he has begun to noticeably fade in the polls in recent weeks. Hartzler and Schmitt now appear to be duking it out for the victory. Depending on which poll you look at, they are either neck-and-neck, trading leads, or Schmitt has a slight-to-moderate advantage. All polls still have significant levels of undecideds, though, so this one could go either way. * House: The delegation has two open seats, to replace Rep. Hartzler and Rep. Billy Long (R), who also chose to run for Senate. Both races are hotly contested by a large number of viable candidates, and no one has emerged as a clear frontrunner in either. Whoever wins will coast to victory in November, as both districts are heavily Republican. The other interesting primary is in St. Louis, where “squad” member Cori Bush (D) faces sitting state senator Steve Roberts (D). While most seem to favor Bush in the race, don’t be surprised if Roberts gives her a run for her money in this heavily-Dem district. Incumbents are expected to cruise to victory in the other five districts. Tennessee (Thursday, 8/4) * Senate: Five-term incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D) is running for re-election and does not face significant opposition. * House: With longtime Dem Rep. Jim Cooper retiring rather than run in his now-R+9 5th District, nine Republicans are facing off to compete for the seat. Incumbents are running in the other eight seats, five of whom are unopposed. Washington * Senate: Five-term incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D) is running for re-election and does not face significant opposition. * House: Incumbents are running in all 10 of Washington’s House seats. GOP Reps. Jaime Herrera Beutler and Dan Newhouse both voted to impeach former President Trump and have drawn his ire. He has endorsed opponents for both, but it is not clear who will prevail in either battle. *In full disclosure, I was employed for five years by Congresswoman Hartzler. In Closing… I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading! —Eric Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe [https://getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Political Cheat Sheet: Heat wave fuels push for climate action

Our mission is to bring unbiased political information and analysis to Americans in a way that is interesting and engaging. Thank you for your support! The results of last week’s poll: Should Donald Trump run for President in 2024? We had 191 votes cast, and all ballots were counted (I swear). Thanks to everyone who participated! I really like this new feature… nice job, Substack. Let’s try it again: I’ll share the results next week. The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image. What's happening this week This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, July 25, 2022. Today is 106 days until the November midterm elections (about 15 weeks). We are 834 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 27 months). Top Storylines Worldwide heat wave fuels push for government action on climate * The main story for the past week was the abnormally high temperatures throughout the U.S. and Europe. While these are usually localized phenomena, what made this time different was just how widespread it was. The U.S. was broiling, with widespread areas hitting 100-plus [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/us/heat-wave-map-tracker.html] several days in a row. London hit an all-time record high of 104.5 degrees [https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/19/world/uk-europe-heat-fires-weather#:~:text=Britain%20recorded%20a%20temperature%20of,evening%20thunderstorms%20brought%20a%20respite.], Belgium and Germany [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/07/19/world/europe/uk-europe-heat-map.html] were scorching, and Greenland was seeing short-sleeve weather, melting over six billion tons a day of ice [https://inews.co.uk/news/world/greenland-melting-billion-tons-climate-change-1754128]. * Back in Washington, the Biden administration used this backdrop as an opportunity to talk about his efforts to ratchet up a climate change response. President Joe Biden (D) has taken flak from his left wing for not doing more to act on climate policy. After Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) backed out of climate talks [https://www.rollcall.com/2022/07/18/after-manchin-tanks-talks-climate-action-moves-to-life-support/] a week and a half ago, climate activists have increased their calls for executive action by the president. * Biden gave a speech in Massachusetts on Wednesday focused on climate policy. While he did not take formal steps to declare climate change a “national emergency,” he used the word “emergency” several times in his speech and called it a “clear and present danger” and vowed to act if Congress does not [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/20/biden-issue-new-policy-climate-vowing-act-if-congress-doesnt//]. The White House said he would not declare a “climate emergency” last week [https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3566396-white-house-says-it-wont-declare-climate-emergency-this-week/], but that discussions along those lines were ongoing. * Some conservative commentators have warned that declaring a state of emergency would allow Biden to legally suspend the Constitution and effectively become a dictator on anything he deemed climate-related. This is not true. An emergency declaration does allow expanded executive powers [https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3568048-what-would-declaring-a-national-climate-emergency-do/], but they are still limited and bound by the Constitution. * This helpful article [https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3568048-what-would-declaring-a-national-climate-emergency-do/] from The Hill lays out the powers and limits of such a declaration. The main thrust is this: The declaration would empower Biden to use the Defense Production Act, which could provide loans that could bolster clean energy deployment, and the International Economic Emergency Protection Act, which (Mark Nevitt, a professor at the Emory University’s School of Law) said could prohibit the imports of “harmful climate products” such as chemical compounds that warm the planet and illegally harvested timber from the Amazon.  Nevitt also said that Biden could deploy military construction powers to build renewable energy projects near military bases or other energy security projects. * A declaration would provide a few other opportunities for action, but none so drastic as suspending the Constitution. * Why this matters: No matter how creative Biden gets, his powers are nowhere near as broad as legislative power to make new law. This is especially true considering the Supreme Court’s recent decision in West Virginia vs. EPA [https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/west-virginia-v-environmental-protection-agency/], which said that under the “Major Questions Doctrine,” the executive branch does not have the power to read between the lines to enact major new policies that are supposed to be decided by Congress. * Bottom line: Declaring emergencies to get around Congress is not a good precedent or plan, no matter the administration. Given the constraints of executive authority, ultimately if major governmental action is going to happen, Congress is going to have to decide to act. Odds of Electoral Count Act revamp getting stronger * Few Americans probably realize that the events of January 6, 2021, were driven by the ambiguities of a law passed in 1887, the Electoral Count Act [https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/15], or ECA. This mess of a statute is 809 words arranged in one paragraph and 10 confusing sentences. The longest sentence is 275 words. This poor 19th-century drafting makes the ECA chock-full of ambiguities and contradictions. Read it for yourself [https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/15] - it’s unintelligible. * The lack of clarity in the statute is what provided the legal cover for President Trump’s efforts to reverse the results of the 2020 election during the January 6 vote-counting session in Congress. Since then, many legal experts and members of the House and Senate have expressed the need to reform the ECA and remove its ambiguities and contradictions. * Last week, a group of 16 Senators [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/21/us/politics/electoral-count-act-senate.html] introduced the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022 [https://www.collins.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/electoral_count_reform_and_presidential_transition_improvement_act_of_2022.pdf]. The group includes nine Republicans - one short of what it would take to pass the Senate, assuming all Democrats stay on board. Among other things, the bill would clarify that the Vice President plays only a “ministerial” role in counting the votes and does not have unilateral authority to accept or reject votes. It also raises the bar to object to a state’s slate of electors from the current level of one member of each chamber to one-fifth of both chambers. After the bill was introduced, other Senators expressed openness to the idea, including some additional Republicans. * Why this matters: Reducing confusion and ambiguity is usually a good thing in the law, and this Is one of the most confusing and ambiguous statutes on the books. The fact that it covers one of the most important parts of our system of government makes it all that much more important to clarify well in advance of the next election. * Bottom line: I believe this will get done in the next few months. It may not make as many headlines as some flashier subjects, but it might be one of the most important pieces of legislation that Congress could pass for the future of our system of government. Health issues plaguing politicians of all ages * President Biden’s COVID diagnosis [https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/3570976-17-people-determined-close-contacts-to-biden/] made all kinds of headlines this week. Fortunately, it seems like his symptoms are mild and improving [https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3570501-biden-ran-fever-but-covid-19-symptoms-have-improved-doctor-says/]. He has even made a public appearance [https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3570897-biden-makes-first-public-appearance-since-covid-19-diagnosis/], which is pretty strong evidence that he’s truly doing okay. * We’ve talked a lot about how it seems like the Democrats can’t catch a break lately - this is even true in their own physical health. A few examples: * Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor, and Dem nominee for U.S. Senate, John Fetterman, 52, suffered a stroke [https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/21/fetterman-pennsylvania-senate-campaign-stroke-00047159] just days before the Senate primary. * Senator Ben Ray Luján (D-NM), 50, also suffered a serious stroke [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/05/us/politics/ben-ray-lujan-stroke-interview.html] in January, endangering the Democratic majority in the Senate. * Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), 63, also [https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senator-chris-van-hollen-released-hospital-stroke/] suffered a minor stroke [https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senator-chris-van-hollen-released-hospital-stroke/] in May, putting him out of commission for some time. * Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT), 82, the longest-serving Senator, fractured his hip [https://www.rollcall.com/2022/07/20/leahy-has-second-surgery-related-to-hip-fracture/] and has had two surgeries to repair it in recent weeks. He was briefly hospitalized in January 2021 [https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/patrick-leahy-health-463080]with muscle spasms. As the longest-serving member of the majority party, he serves as president pro tempore of the Senate, which puts him third in line to the Presidency. * It’s not only Democrats who have had their share of troubles. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-ND), 61, had a yard work accident in June that resulted in potential finger amputation. I’m sure there are plenty of other examples of accident and illness. * Why this matters: Sometimes we forget that these are human beings who occasionally have ordinary health problems. Members of Congress are under immense physical and mental stress. At any moment, things can change at the drop of a hat. * Bottom line: Keep our elected officials in your thoughts and prayers. It’s best for our country if we resolve our political disagreements at the ballot box rather than the hospital. What I'm Watching Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week: Politics * Dems second-guessing their strategic decisions [https://thehill.com/homenews/3566650-dems-second-guessing-their-strategic-decisions/] * Cracks form in Biden’s Senate Democratic base [https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3561683-cracks-form-in-bidens-senate-democratic-base/] * The 1976 and 1980 primaries are not precedents Biden will want to emulate [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/19/1976-1980-primaries-are-not-precedents-biden-will-want-emulate/?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wp_politics] * The history of primary meddling — and how risky Dems’ attempts in 2022 are [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/18/democrats-primary-mastriano-lake/?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wp_politics] * So will Democrats try to boost Trump in the 2024 primaries, too? [https://www.washingtonpost.com/subscribe/signin/?next_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fpolitics%2F2022%2F07%2F19%2Fso-will-democrats-try-boost-trump-2024-primaries-too%2F&tid=usw_paywall] Abortion * House Passes Bill to Codify Contraception Rights After Dobbs [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/21/us/politics/house-contraception.html] * A triumphant antiabortion movement begins to deal with its divisions [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/24/antiabortion-movement-divisions/] * Where Abortion Is on the Ballot [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/us/politics/midterms-abortion-access.html] Congress * House passes bill protecting marriage equality, with 47 GOP members voting ‘yes’ [https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3566470-house-passes-bill-protecting-marriage-equality-with-47-gop-members-voting-yes/] * Ocasio-Cortez pushes back on claims she ‘faked’ being handcuffed during arrest [https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3567699-ocasio-cortez-pushes-back-on-claims-she-faked-being-handcuffed-during-arrest/] * Biden: Military thinks potential Pelosi trip to Taiwan is ‘not a good idea’ [https://thehill.com/policy/international/3568049-biden-military-thinks-potential-pelosi-trip-to-taiwan-is-not-a-good-idea/] * Eight U.S. House Offices File for the Right to Unionize [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/18/us/politics/us-house-unions-congress.html] * Congress needs to take disaster planning seriously, Modernization panel says [https://www.rollcall.com/2022/07/19/continuity-congress-modernization/] January 6 Committee * Watchdog Informs Secret Service of Criminal Inquiry Into Missing Texts [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/21/us/politics/secret-service-criminal-inquiry-missing-texts.html] * Bannon guilty on two criminal contempt of Congress charges [https://www.rollcall.com/2022/07/22/bannon-guilty-on-two-criminal-contempt-of-congress-charges/] And a fun one: * Triumph the Insult Comic Dog will not be prosecuted for trespassing in Capitol [https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/3564837-late-show-staffers-arrested-at-capitol-wont-be-prosecuted/] Balance of Power House of Represeives changes this week. Democrats hold a  [https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown]220-211 [https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown] advantage [https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown] over the GOP. Four seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 9-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote. If a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails. If Republicans pick up five or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber. Senate The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats [https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm]. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote. Polling President Average: 37.9% Approve, 56.9% Disapprove (Net: -19.0%) [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/] Change (in Net) from last week: Worsened 1.8% Recent trend: The president’s dropping approval ratings continued this week, with his net +/- going down about 5 points in the past two months. His approval level is now 3.8 points below where President Trump’s was [https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Index:_Comparison_of_opinion_polling_during_the_Trump_and_Biden_administrations] at this point in his term. Congress Average: 18.7% Approve, 72.4% Disapprove (Net: -53.7%) [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/congressional_job_approval-903.html] Change (in Net) from last week: Worsened 1.0% Recent trend: Over the past two months, Congress’s net approval gap has worsened by about 10 points. Generic Ballot Average: GOP +2.5% [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html] Change from last week: GOP advantage up 0.5% Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage since mid-January. On the Calendar President No travel planned. House In session this week, recess the next six weeks [https://www.majorityleader.gov/calendar]. Senate In session this week and next week [https://www.senate.gov/legislative/2022_schedule.htm]. Upcoming Primaries Full list of primaries [https://www.270towin.com/2022-election-calendar/] Tomorrow: Tuesday, July 28 - no primaries. In Closing… I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading! —Eric Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe [https://getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Political Cheat Sheet: Biden Fist-Bump Shakes Washington

On Thursday I asked a simple question: Should Donald Trump run again [https://getsmartpolitics.substack.com/p/thursday-discussion-thread-should/comments]? I got some very thoughtful responses - thanks to everyone who read and commented! Let’s make it even easier - please cast your anonymous vote here: I’ll share the results next week. The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image. What's happening this week This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, July 18, 2022. Today is 113 days until the November midterm elections (about 16 weeks). We are 841 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 28 months). Top Storylines Biden’s Middle East trip draws lukewarm reception back home * On Saturday, Joe Biden returned from his first major trip to the Middle East as president, bringing home a mixed bag of headlines. After a stop in Israel that went mostly according to plan, he flew to Saudi Arabia, where his actions received much more criticism. The lingering image of the entire trip will be Biden fist-bumping Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman upon arrival in the kingdom. * While campaigning for President, Biden had promised to make bin Salman, commonly referred to by his initials MBS, a “pariah” (or outcast) on the world stage. This was in response to U.S. intelligence determining MBS had personally approved the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi Arabian journalist who lived in the U.S. and wrote for The Washington Post. By most reports, Biden only reluctantly agreed to meet with MBS after months of pushing from his advisers, who believed it was necessary to push for expanded pumping of oil. * Before the trip, the White House did its best to avoid the inevitable bad optics of the Biden-MBS meeting, saying Biden would “try to minimize contact” with others while on the trip due to new COVID variants [https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3557107-white-house-biden-to-minimize-contact-on-middle-east-trip-due-to-covid-variants/]. The press and public saw straight through the effort, though - especially when Biden landed in Israel and promptly started shaking hands with old friends [https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/13/politics/handshakes-joe-biden-israel/index.html] like former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. * After their closed-door meeting, Biden claimed to have pushed MBS on the Khashoggi assassination, a point that was disputed by Saudis in the room. Biden has taken criticism from Americans over his handling of the situation, including the Washington Post’s publisher calling his actions “shameful.” [https://thehill.com/homenews/media/3561559-washington-post-publisher-bidens-shameful-fist-bump-with-saudi-crown-prince-worse-than-a-handshake/] Biden also did not leave the meeting with any firm promises for more oil, instead only getting vague assurances for future action. * Why this matters: Biden fist-bumping MBS was a mistake. It looked like a couple of intimate buddies exchanging a knowing nod rather than the cold business relationship a simple handshake could have projected. Beyond that, the real problem is the bigger picture: Biden’s stock is so low and his domestic situation so dire that he felt he had no option but to beg for help from a pariah state. If he were in a strong position, he never would have felt the need to make this trip and elevate MBS’s position on the world stage. * Bottom line: Right now Biden’s situation is so weak that he has nothing left but bad options. Even still, he isn’t helping himself with unforced errors like the optics of his ill-advised fist-bump and the lack of concrete results from the meeting. Manchin deals blow to Dems’ final attempt at big legislation * Feel like you’ve heard this one before? On Thursday Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) told Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) that he would not support the biggest parts of the Democrats’ reconciliation package [https://news.yahoo.com/manchin-says-won-apos-t-041222330.html], all but killing efforts to pass major legislation before the midterms. Dems had hoped to include major climate, energy, and tax provisions in the bill, but Manchin said he would only support a two-year extension of Obamacare subsidies and a provision to lower prescription drug prices. Manchin said he would not support any items that would add to inflation, telling Schumer he needed to wait to see next month’s numbers before he could support provisions that might add fuel to the inflationary fire. * President Biden responded [https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/14/politics/joe-manchin-wont-support-climate-or-tax-provisions/index.html] by saying he would use “strong executive action” to enact climate provisions. He did not give details of exactly what this would include. * Why this matters: Democratic hopes of a big legislative win before November are now dead. They needed every single Democratic Senator on board to pass a reconciliation bill, and they simply do not have the votes now. Biden’s “executive action” statement is hollow - if he could have implemented major climate or tax policy without Congress, he already would have done so. * Bottom line: If Congressional Democrats are going to save their skin for the November midterms, they’ll have to look somewhere other than legislation. Nothing major is going to pass. Inflation roars back into the headlines * Related to our last item, inflation is a problem that won’t go away. After improving a tiny bit last month and bringing out hopes that the worst was behind us, last week’s inflation report [https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/inflation-rose-9point1percent-in-june-even-more-than-expected-as-price-pressures-intensify.html] put the annual rate at 9.1 percent, setting another 40-year high. The number was worse than experts had predicted. * This chart I made from the Federal Reserve Economic Data [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=rocU#] engine (aka FRED) shows the Consumer Price Index over the past 5 years and puts in stark relief the difference between current trends and the status quo. So-called “core inflation" - excluding volatile energy and food prices - has been slightly decreasing since March. * Analysts now expect a strong response from the Federal Reserve at its meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps raising interest rates a full percent. * Why this matters: Just over 100 days out from the midterm elections, the economic picture continues to be grim. If the Fed increases interest rates a full point next week, millions of Americans with adjustable rate mortgages will be getting a bill for hundreds of dollars more per month right before an election. The only silver lining is that next month’s numbers should improve once the recent pullback in gas prices is factored in. Even still, gas is still stratospheric compared to a year ago. Summer electricity bills are significantly higher this year, as are food prices and darn near everything else. * Bottom line: Electorally, this report was a worst-case scenario for Congressional Democrats. Time is running out to turn around the narrative. Instead of even marginally improving, the news only seems to be getting worse. What I'm Watching Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week: Elections * Donald Trump looks to fall launch for 2024, potentially upending midterms [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/14/trump-2024-announcement-fall/] * Biden says he wouldn’t be disappointed to run against Trump again [https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3557851-biden-says-he-wouldnt-be-disappointed-to-run-against-trump-again/] * Half of G.O.P. Voters Ready to Leave Trump Behind, Poll Finds [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/us/politics/trump-approval-polling-2024.html] * Most Democrats Don’t Want Biden in 2024, New Poll Shows [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/11/us/politics/biden-approval-polling-2024.html] Congress * Senate Absences Snarl Democrats’ Plans for a Quick Return to Business [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/11/us/politics/senate-absences-democrats.html] * Young Voters Are Fed Up With Their (Much) Older Leaders [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/14/us/politics/youth-voters-midterms-polling.html] * Take it from top Hill staffers: Congress doesn’t function as it should [https://rollcall.com/2022/07/12/top-hill-staffers-congress-does-not-function/] Foreign Relations * China set to reveal ‘very bad’ economic picture after covid lockdowns [https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/14/china-gdp-economy-covid-lockdown/] * Fertilizer crisis delivers profits and pain as Ukraine fallout broadens [https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/14/fertilizer-inflation-food-shortage/] * So what coups might John Bolton have been involved in, exactly? [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/13/so-what-coups-might-john-bolton-have-been-involved-exactly/] January 6 Committee * Bipartisan bill would clarify that VP role with electors is only ceremonial [https://rollcall.com/2022/07/14/bipartisan-bill-would-clarify-that-vp-role-with-electors-is-only-ceremonial/] * The significance of the new Steve Bannon tape [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/13/significance-new-steve-bannon-tape/] * Jan. 6 and the Search for Direct Trump Links [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/13/us/politics/capitol-riot-trump-links-search.html] And a fun one: * Snooki hits Oz over Pennsylvania residency in new video for Fetterman: ‘Jersey will not forget you’ [https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/3560046-snooki-hits-oz-over-pennsylvania-residency-in-new-ad-for-fetterman-jersey-will-not-forget-you/] Balance of Power House of Representatives No changes this week. Democrats hold a  [https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown]220-210 [https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown] advantage [https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown] over the GOP. Five seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 10-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). If Republicans pick up six or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber. Senate The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats [https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm]. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote. Polling President Average: 38.5% Approve, 55.7% Disapprove (Net: -17.2%) [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/] Change (in Net) from last week: Improved 0.8% Recent trend: The president gained a little ground this week, but his approval level is now 3.8 points below where President Trump’s was [https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Index:_Comparison_of_opinion_polling_during_the_Trump_and_Biden_administrations] at this point in his term. Congress Average: 19.0% Approve, 71.7% Disapprove (Net: -52.7%) [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/congressional_job_approval-903.html] Change (in Net) from last week: Worsened 0.9% Recent trend: Over the past two months, Congress’s net approval gap has worsened by about 10 points. Generic Ballot Average: GOP +2.0% [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html] Change from last week: GOP advantage down 0.5% Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage since mid-January. On the Calendar President President Biden returned from his trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia [https://apnews.com/article/biden-business-israel-saudi-arabia-jamal-khashoggi-edba0435dedc08db952c406536d67713] on Saturday. He has not announced any travel yet for this week. House In session the next two weeks [https://www.majorityleader.gov/calendar]. Senate In session the next three weeks [https://www.senate.gov/legislative/2022_schedule.htm]. Upcoming Primaries Full list of primaries [https://www.270towin.com/2022-election-calendar/] Tomorrow: Tuesday, July 21 - One primary. * Maryland * Senate: Senator Chris Van Hollen (D) is running for re-election and is not expected to face any significant challenge. * House: Maryland did not gain or lose any seats in the new Census, retaining eight representatives. However, its new map is more competitive than the old one [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/maryland/]. Previously there were seven solid Dem districts and one solid GOP, but two of the solid Dem districts are now rated as competitive but Dem-leaning and one is now a toss-up. A couple of interesting races to keep an eye on: * 4th District - Incumbent Anthony Brown (D) is not running for re-election, as he chose to run for Attorney General. In this heavily-Democratic seat, nine Dems are running to replace Brown. The district surrounds the southeastern and most of the northeastern border with the District of Columbia. * 6th District - The new 6th District comprises the entire western panhandle of the state and is rated as a tossup. Sophomore incumbent David Trone (D) faces three Democrat and six Republican challengers. Regardless of who emerges victorious Tuesday, this district will be one of the few strong GOP takeover opportunities on the east coast and will therefore be heavily watched. In Closing… I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading! —Eric Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe [https://getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]