History in the Making - A Livre Ouvert

Munich 1938 should have served as an impetus for a real European Defence community

If all roads lead to Munich 1938, then our foreign policy options are restricted to belligerence or betrayal. In the absence of American muscle power, shouldn’t the EU, explore the fine art of diplomacy? Neo-Conservatism is an ideology that adheres firmly to the view that military might-not diplomacy or negotiations must achieve foreign policy goals. But is Neo-conservatism, allied with Neo-Liberalism today, in foreign policy prudent for the EU that has virtually no military might apart from NATO which is heavily if not entirely dependant on the US?

Victims can morph into perpetrators: The Tutsi dominated M23 are proof of it.

Zone into Africa and you will notice that Rwanda’s neighbours are Burundi (slightly larger than Rwanda) Uganda (9 times bigger than Rwanda), Tanzania (35 times bigger than Rwanda), and Congo (89 times bigger than Rwanda). Rwanda is the smallest in size, but over the years because of military backing from the West, ( mainly the US) Rwanda has managed to bully all its neighbours, including the largest of them; the DRC or Congo. When my wife heard that she threw her hands up in exasperation and quipped, “ That’s like if Luxembourg were to bully Germany”. As baffling as it is, I am going to get into why and how Rwanda is doing this, but first I would like to give you some context. One must bear in mind that African borders were drawn in the most senseless and crude manner by western colonisers who invaded Africa ( a continent 3 times the size of Europe ) and merged 10,000 polities (political entities) into just 40 colonies. The new territories were artificial territories that paid no attention the diversity of the people, their monarchies, their chiefdoms, their ethnicities. People who shared no common language, history and even religion inherited what the west thought was a modern Africa. Most colonisers practised the divide and rule policy which basically meant privileging one minority ethnicity over the majority. When the Western colonisers left, it was evident that powerful ethnicities would try to subjugate weaker ethnicities and today certain conflicts quite often has led to ethnic pogroms and genocide.

The European Quagmire: The US under Trump is increasingly unilateral, and does not want to get entangled in military overreach.

The Special envoy for Ukraine, retired lieutenant General Kellogg has laid out America's shift in foreign policy; it draws inspiration from Prof. Paul Kennedy's book,The rise and fall of Great powers. Trump unlike his predecessor does not want war with Russia because his administration believe that great powers historically fail when they get entangled in strategic overreach or military overreach. Prof. Kennedy refereed to this as Imperial overreach. I should add just because they cite Prof. Kennedy, it does not mean that the renowned Prof. is the mastermind behind their thoughts, it just means, they are aware of his work and are drawing conclusions from it. As of now, the sum total of the United States’ global interests and global obligations far larger than the country’s power to defend them simultaneously especially if China and Russia consolidate their forces. Israel needs US’s attention and trouble is brewing in Taiwan. Ukraine, under these circumstances will not be on the US defence list. In addition, The Trump administration’s stance on making a business deal before they deliver or promise any security guarantees, has shocked many people, but a closer reading of US history of invasions and interventions gives one whole picture of how almost every US administration (irrespective of democrats or Republicans) quickly orders an exit strategy with a profitable deal to take away on their drive out when things work against their interests. It is becoming increasingly clear that Ukraine was not all that much about freedom, democracy and sovereignty, but largely about a security conflict involving NATO and snapping up Ukrainian resources. Some of us had our suspicions when the Rand Corporation, an influential think tank closest to the Pentagon, published their ideas through a research paper readily available on their website. [https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html]It was titled , Extending Russia: Competing from advantageous ground. The report gives solicited advice on how to exploit the vulnerabilities of Russia. The Rand cooperation is funded by the US government and big arms manufacturers too [https://www.rand.org/about.html#:~:text=How%20We're%20Funded,other%20nonprofit%20organizations%3B%20and%20industry.]. Again, these details are available on their website in their About Us section. The idea was to stretch Russia thin by exploiting her anxieties, but the think tank did explicitly state that Russia could well escalate matters. Oddly, a lot of how the invasion played out can be matched to the paper published back in 2019. Now the ugly truth is that the greatest experts of the Cold war had repeatedly warned the West against NATO expansion especially to Ukraine. George Kennan, that most astute of Russia observers, described NATO [https://www.ft.com/content/48ea2b2e-c46a-457d-8e83-a84e6ba572ed] expansion as “the most fateful error of American [https://www.nytimes.com/1997/02/05/opinion/a-fateful-error.html] policy in the entire post-cold war era”. William Burns, US ambassador (and CIA director until January 2025 ) advised Washington that Ukrainian inclusion in NATO was “the brightest of all red lines for the Russian elite. [https://www.theatlantic.com/membership/archive/2019/03/a-brief-history-of-us-russian-missteps/584542/] But Russia isn’t even a peer competitor when it comes to the US. It’s a distant third if we were to rate it. But Can the EU face Russia without the US? Is Strategic overreach something the EU can afford? For the text version please visit alivreouvert.substack.com [alivreouvert.substack.com]

Why the Democrats lost and remain lost

The Democrats have betrayed themselves for decades to the point that they synchronised the vicious circle with the Republicans that gave Trump his triumphant victory. The current American political scene should serve as a wake up call for the rest of the West. Up until now it made sense for the collective West to rally behind the US and look up to their leadership in terms of freedom and democracy. Russia’s values were so starkly different, so outdated, and so distorted that the quasi-totalité of the ex-USSR bloc signed up for US leadership. But with Elon Musk poised to play a pivotal role in the US administration, how different is the American model now from the much- despised Russian oligarchy that rose from the Soviet rubble in the 90’s?

The true cost of making America great again & again

What, in your opinion, is truly the driving force behind the democratic process in America? Well, one of the key factors for me is the PAC and the Super PAC. A political action committee is a tax exempt entity that collects funding from contributors for its political causes. Although money cannot be handed directly to the candidates, unlimited funding can be poured into groups and organisations who can take up their causes. ⁠Despite the fact the PACs shape American politics, barely 40% of Americans could even define a Super PAC, a Pew research study showed. The cherry on the cake is that much of the ⁠legislation on Super PAC was endorsed by Barack Obama. ⁠The structure is such that ⁠deep pocketed⁠ donors now have an unprecedented role in shaping American politics. A report by two American professors ⁠Martin Gilens ⁠and ⁠Benjamin Page⁠, showed that the ⁠average American has virtually no impact on shaping policy. Last week, Harris and Trump entertained audiences worldwide, but proved the report right; average Americans have no stake in the democratic process, they simply cast a vote and let the plutocratic process take the reigns. Corporate America masquerading as national security interests has made individuals disproportionately more powerful than the nation itself. Listen in to find out more. For detailed links pleas visit alivreouvert.substack.com