Power Plays

Trump's trip to China on rare earths, electricity market reforms in the US, and the evolving Chinese EV market

This week on Power Plays (recorded May 13th, 2026), we are joined by a guest co-host, Henry Sanderson, while Charlotte completes an epic run in Spain. Henry is the author of Volt Rush, former journalist at Bloomberg and the Financial Times, and fellow at RUSI and Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. This week we cover: * Trump's trip to China - why is he going, what will he ask for in the negotiation to secure rare earth supply chains, and will this lead to more investment in the US cleantech sector? * The PJM's electricity market reform proposals - why there are calls for reform to capacity markets, what those reforms could look like, and will they will improve reliability? * The Beijing Auto Show and evolving EV trends - the move towards luxury EVs and battery swapping for heavy-duty vehicles like trucks * Struggling European battery manufacturers - Morrow's bankruptcy, why Europe's manufacturing has lagged China's * Power price moves - how lower power prices drive EVs, changes in China's market connectivity and design

The Renewable Grid (DERs, VPPs, and the Grid Edge), plus the UK’s Cost Reduction Policies

Recorded 2nd May 2026: This week we explore the forces reshaping distribution level power systems, the UK's new energy policy announcements, and the progress of fossil fuel phase-out after a historic conference in Colombia. Part One: DERs, VPPs, and the Grid Edge Stories from Octopus Energy, Uplight, Lunar Energy, & Span all point to the grid becoming more distributed, more intelligent, and more participatory. DERs - including home batteries, EV charging, & flexible demand - are increasingly being treated as real capacity resources rather than emergency backup systems. VPPs can now meet peak demand at significantly lower cost than conventional generation, using assets that already exist in homes & businesses. As electricity demand rises & interconnection timelines stretch, the fastest new capacity may come from distributed infrastructure not large centralized plants. Charlotte highlights: 1. Octopus Energy & Uplight - to expand VPP capabilities in the US, focused on aggregating household devices into coordinated grid resources 2. Octopus & Lunar Energy - to deliver integrated home energy systems combining batteries, energy management software, & retail electricity supply 3. Octopus's residential battery deployment focused on mainstream adoption. Systems are designed to participate in demand response, energy arbitrage, & VPP programs, as household energy devices can function as infrastructure assets. 4. Span announced plans to deploy GPUs at the grid edge, embedding compute directly into electrical infrastructure Part Two: UK Energy Policy and Breaking the link between gas and electricity prices The UK government announced a slate of policy proposals to reduce the cost of energy and accelerate decarbonisation. The flagship policy was offering voluntary wholesale contracts to legacy renewable generators to stabilise electricity prices and reduce exposure to gas-driven volatility. The proposal reflects a broader recognition that electricity markets remain heavily exposed to short-term price fluctuations & that long-term contracts can play a stabilising role for both producers & consumers. Lucy also covers: * Market reforms, including wholesale prices and locational pricing * Expanding energy development on publicly owned land to build 10GW of new supply * The launch of a plug-in solar pilot program, * Reforms to make on-street EV charging easier to deploy Part Three: Fossil Fuel Phase-out - the dream in Colombia and the reality on the ground The first ever Fossil Fuel Phase-out conference was held in Santa Marta, Colombia, this past week. Participants were optimistic about the outcome, agreeing to develop roadmaps in advance of the summit next year. But the world's biggest fossil fuel producers and consumers weren't there - China, the US, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia - so can we expect any change? Meanwhile: * UAE left OPEC, signalling they want to increase oil production * Chevron and ExxonMobil are resisting Trump's calls to increase oil production, signalling they want to keep prices higher for longer or are worried about a glut of supply coming * India is experiencing higher than ever electricity demand in a deadly heatwave, increasing coal consumption after a 2025 decline.

Heavy Industry and the Energy Transition: From Mining inputs and Coal, to Green Iron and Steel projects

Recorded 18th April 2026: This week we explore the forces reshaping heavy industry in the energy transition — from the role of of coal in global power systems to the rapidly evolving race to build low-carbon steel. In this episode: * What the latest data says about global coal demand * Why mining costs are rising - and how producers are responding * The financing and technology choices shaping new green steel plants * How renewable energy availability is reorganizing industrial supply chains * Why geopolitical risk is becoming a core variable in industrial investment We unpack new data from Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air which shows coal use has remained flat, examine rising mining input costs, and discuss how economics, infrastructure, and geopolitics are beginning to determine where the next generation of industrial facilities will be built. Coal India Limited warns of rising supply chain costs because of increases in explosives costs (driven by gas prices) and diesel for mine trucks (driven by oil prices). While the stated cost rises were high (26% and 54% respectively), the impact on overall coal costs in India is muted, less than 2% of costs. The state-controlled company has promised to insulate consumers from these price shocks and it can do so with a large profit margin cushion. This slightly reduces the incentive to switch to clean energy. Other miners may have to pass these cost increases on, for coal and other commodities, which could raise prices if there are fewer substitutes. Stegra (formerly H2 Green Steel) secured €1.4 billion in additional financing to complete construction of its flagship steel plant in northern Sweden — the first new steel mill in Europe in decades. The project reflects the practical reality that hydrogen infrastructure at industrial scale is still emerging. The financing underscores both the scale of investment required for industrial decarbonization and the importance of secure long-term demand contracts in making these projects bankable. SuSteel Namibia successfully demonstrated hydrogen-based iron production at an industrially relevant scale, marking a major step beyond pilot projects. The development highlights a broader shift in the steel value chain: energy-intensive processing is beginning to move to regions with abundant, low-cost renewable power. Rather than exporting hydrogen, Namibia is positioning itself to export higher-value intermediate products like direct reduced iron, capturing more industrial value locally. Proposed green iron projects in the Middle East are now facing increased uncertainty as geopolitical tensions raise shipping, insurance, and financing risks. Despite having some of the world’s lowest-cost energy and strong industrial infrastructure, the region’s risk profile is beginning to influence investment decisions. The story illustrates a growing reality for the energy transition: energy price alone is no longer decisive — reliability and geopolitical stability are becoming equally critical to project economics.

Batteries: Peak Energy’s Sodium-Ion Commercialisation, Zenobē’s Electric Trucking Play, and Ascend Elements’ Recycling Bankruptcy

Recorded Sunday 12th April. we look at three forces reshaping the battery industry: Sodium-ion as a new chemistry moving toward commercialization, a new infrastructure model enabling heavy transport electrification, and a reminder that capital intensity can bankrupt even promising solutions. 1) Are Sodium Batteries Finally Ready for the Grid? - Inside Peak Energy's Sodium ion system: * What is a sodium-ion battery, and how does it differ from traditional lithium-ion systems? * Why is Peak Energy using sodium iron phosphate pyrophosphate (NFPP) cathodes and hard carbon anodes? * How do sodium batteries compare with NMC and LFP on safety, supply chains, and lifetime cost? * Why did the industry shift from NMC to LFP—and how does sodium extend that trend toward durability and affordability? * Why are sodium batteries particularly suited to stationary grid storage despite lower energy density? * How does passive cooling reduce equipment, maintenance, and system costs in large battery installations? * Why do sodium batteries perform better in extreme cold conditions than lithium systems? * How could abundant domestic sodium resources reshape long-term battery supply chains? * Why might sodium be slightly more expensive today but cheaper over the full project life? 2) Why Did Zenobē Buy Revolv — and What Does It Say About Electric Trucking? * What is Zenobē’s model as a fleet electrification and charging infrastructure provider? * Why is acquiring Revolv’s truck fleet and charging depots strategically important? * How large are electric truck batteries—and why can they require 250–600 kWh per vehicle? * Why has charging infrastructure, not battery technology, been the main constraint on truck electrification? * How do high-power chargers change the economics of long-distance trucking? * Why are buses easier to electrify than heavy trucks from an operational perspective? * What role do subsidies and depot investment play in scaling electric fleets? * Why has battery-electric trucking gained momentum while hydrogen alternatives have struggled? 3) Ascend Elements Filed for Bankruptcy — What Actually Went Wrong? * What is precursor cathode active material (pCAM), and why is it critical to battery manufacturing? * How did Ascend attempt to build a circular battery supply chain through recycling? * Why are battery materials plants among the most capital-intensive projects in the energy sector? * How did falling lithium prices weaken recycling economics and cash flow? * What happens when large facilities face delays, funding gaps, or canceled grants? * How did Ascend’s strategy differ from competitors that diversified into energy storage or services? * What does this case reveal about financing risk in emerging industrial supply chains? * And more broadly: why do many clean energy bankruptcies stem from timing and capital structure rather than technology failure?

Decarbonising Iron & Steel alongside Low-Carbon Cement, US Offshore Wind Cancellations, and UK turbine manufacturing rejections

Recorded Sunday 29th March. Two very different stories highlight the complexity of the energy transition - from industrial decarbonisation in steel and cement to the increasingly political battle over offshore wind in the US and UK. Key topics: * Why steel slag matters for low-carbon cement * How electric arc furnaces (EAFs) are reshaping industrial waste * How Cocoon Carbon could decarbonise both steel and concrete * Trump refunding offshore wind leases in favour of oil and gas * The UK rejecting Chinese turbine manufacturing investment * What this means for costs, jobs, and industrial strategy Connecting two hard-to-abate sectors: steel (7%) and cement (8%) together account for ~15% of global GHG emissions, yet both remain under-discussed due to their reliance on hard-to-abate process emissions. Cocoon Carbon is a UK based company developing technology to convert EAF steel slag into supplementary cementitious material (SCM) that can replace up to 30% of ordinary Portland cement. Historically, ~70% of steel came from blast furnaces, producing slag that could be reused as SCM in cement. However, as steel production shifts from blast furnaces and basic oxygen furnaces to direct reduced iron and EAFs - cutting emissions by 40–70% - the slag chemistry changes, making it unusable in cement in its raw form. Cocoon's technology can process this EAF steel slag while molten (~1,500°C), directly at the steel plant, into a form usable as SCM, restoring its value. With ~100–150 kg of slag produced per tonne of steel, this creates a major new source of low-carbon cement input. The economics are compelling: raw slag sells for ~$15–25 per tonne, while processed SCM reaches ~$80–120 per tonne (~5× uplift). This improves steel plant economics, reduces waste, and supports the shift to EAFs. The US is the first target market, where ~70% of steel is already EAF-based and regulations are performance-driven. Cocoon has raised $15m in a Series A round; its modular units can be installed in 6–9 months. In wind, the US story centres on Trump refunding ~$1bn in offshore wind lease payments to TotalEnergies to cancel a 4 GW project and redirect capital into oil and gas. The leases were part of a ~$5bn auction round, with the refund representing ~3% of project cost. This reflects a broader anti-wind stance and may increase costs in regions where offshore wind is cheaper than gas. Offshore wind also raises a structural question: could it replicate fossil fuel royalties? US oil and gas generated ~$6bn in royalties in 2024 (ongoing payments), whereas wind leases are typically upfront rather than recurring. In the UK, a £1.5bn Mingyang turbine factory (≈1,500 jobs) was rejected on security grounds. A smaller £200m investment from Vestas (~500 jobs) may proceed, depending on auction demand. The UK’s decision prioritises energy security but highlights a trade-off: without stronger negotiation, the country risks missing out on manufacturing, jobs, and long-term industrial leverage while remaining dependent on foreign developers.