Sentinel Minutes

″🟩 US and China discuss AI guardrails, Ebola declared a Public Health Emergency, Trump and Iran trade barbs || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #20/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Executive summary Technology and AI: The US and China discussed AI guardrails to mitigate risks from frontier AI models. * Will the US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027 in which both governments state or clearly imply reciprocal expectations, commitments, rules, or norms governing AI development, deployment, security, or military use? Our forecasters believe there's a 21% (15% to 35%) probability. * Before 2027, will the US publicly support creating or moving toward an international AI governance body with an IAEA-like role that includes China? Our forecasters think there's a 8.7% (5% to 15%) chance. Biorisk: A new Ebola outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. * As of June 13, 2026, what will be the cumulative total number of recorded deaths linked to the Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak first confirmed in Ituri Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, in May 2026? Our forecasters’ aggregate 50th percentile estimate is 208 (185 to 230). Geopolitics: Donald Trump again warned Iran to agree to a peace deal quickly, and shared an AI-generated image of him pressing a red button with a mushroom cloud in the background. * [...] --- Outline: (00:21) Executive summary (02:51) Geopolitics (02:53) Middle East (03:43) Europe (04:09) The Americas (04:11) Latin America (07:21) The United States (07:48) Asia-Pacific (08:00) Africa (09:06) Technology and artificial intelligence (11:04) Biorisk (12:56) Economy --- First published: May 18th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-and-china-discuss-ai-guardrails [https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-and-china-discuss-ai-guardrails?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=sentinel_team&utm_campaign=ai_narration]. --- Images from the article: Via the Famine Early Warning System (fews.net) [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1-Mz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fadaab734-9c7c-483f-937f-111364604cf5_1360x460.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1-Mz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fadaab734-9c7c-483f-937f-111364604cf5_1360x460.png ---------------------------------------- Via FRED: [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LKae!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9f8fd707-e876-47c8-af32-c6d21f29ea60_1260x827.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LKae!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9f8fd707-e876-47c8-af32-c6d21f29ea60_1260x827.png ---------------------------------------- Oil types by dependency on the type disrupted by Hormuz closures (Group III). Some types of passenger car motor oil (PCMO) are shown in red and orange, indicating that it would be difficult to replace Group III base oils in these applications [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WkH7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa8cb325c-7928-4852-91d6-3193395e6b92_1726x1590.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WkH7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa8cb325c-7928-4852-91d6-3193395e6b92_1726x1590.png Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts [https://pocketcasts.com/], or another podcast app.

″🟡 US-Iran stalemate continues, Putin says Ukraine war may come to an end, White House considers AI executive order || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #19/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Executive summary Geopolitics: Donald Trump called Iran's response to the US’ latest peace proposal “totally unacceptable”. Vladimir Putin hinted that the Russia-Ukraine war may be nearing an end. * Will Russia and Ukraine end the war with a signed agreement by the end of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 35% (25% to 50%) chance. Technology and AI: The White House is reportedly considering introducing an executive order mandating that the government reviews new AI models before they are released to the public. * Will the US Federal Government through executive order or legislation regulate the release of all new AI models from frontier laboratories by November 3rd, 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 32% (27% to 40%) probability. Economy: The S&P 500's rebound since late March has been driven by the smallest number of stocks on record, namely a handful of Big Tech stocks. * Will the tech companies Alphabet, Nvidia, Amazon, Broadcom, and Apple account for at least 65% of overall growth of the S&P 500 in Q4 of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 33% (15% to 60%) chance. Biorisk: Passengers who were on the cruise ship associated with the hantavirus outbreak are [...] --- Outline: (00:22) Executive summary (02:40) Geopolitics (02:43) Middle East (03:35) Europe (04:37) The Americas (04:40) Latin America (05:02) The United States (05:35) Asia-Pacific (06:12) Technology and artificial intelligence (07:46) Economy (09:13) Biorisk (11:44) Nature and climate --- First published: May 11th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-iran-stalemate-continues-putin [https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-iran-stalemate-continues-putin?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=sentinel_team&utm_campaign=ai_narration]. --- Images from the article: Via NOAA [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!F8Vd!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb53978ea-fbeb-4ba7-a62c-810436a6b2d2_1100x850.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!F8Vd!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb53978ea-fbeb-4ba7-a62c-810436a6b2d2_1100x850.png Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts [https://pocketcasts.com/], or another podcast app.

″🟡 Iran says it will target US naval vessels, GPT-5.5 similar to Mythos on cyber tasks || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #18/2026″ by Nuño Sempere

Executive summary Geopolitics: Iran unveiled a fresh peace proposal, but Trump was not satisfied with it and says that Iran has not paid a big enough price for the war to end yet. The US said it would guide stranded vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran warned it could attack US naval vessels in response. * Will Congress put any constraints on the war in Iran by June 1, 2026, using the War Powers Act? Our forecasters think there's a 6% (5% to 7%) chance. * Will there be a new conflict in Africa that kills over 100 thousand people before May 1, 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 17% (15% to 30%) chance. Technology and AI: OpenAI's GPT-5.5 was found to have a similar level of performance to Anthropic's Mythos model on the UK AISI's suite of cyber tasks. Unlike Mythos, it has been publicly deployed. * Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5, making it unavailable to the general public, before 2027 because of its use in cyberattacks? Our forecasters believe there's a 7% (5% to 8%) chance. Economy: Brent crude oil prices reached a new war-related high, as did gas prices in the US. Outgoing [...] --- Outline: (00:18) Executive summary (02:09) Geopolitics (02:12) Middle East (03:07) The Americas (03:48) The United States (04:58) Europe (05:30) Africa (06:03) Technology and artificial intelligence (10:10) Economy (13:08) Biorisk (13:37) Nature and climate --- First published: May 4th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-says-it-will-target-us-naval [https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-says-it-will-target-us-naval?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=sentinel_team&utm_campaign=ai_narration]. --- Images from the article: Line graph showing completed steps on [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!h0kR!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F91e6e992-8cf3-4a47-be8f-7219d6d0b0a1_1242x777.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!h0kR!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F91e6e992-8cf3-4a47-be8f-7219d6d0b0a1_1242x777.png ---------------------------------------- Line graph titled [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8s6C!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa08944c4-6393-44f9-b364-24251c40cf1e_960x633.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8s6C!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa08944c4-6393-44f9-b364-24251c40cf1e_960x633.png Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts [https://pocketcasts.com/], or another podcast app.

″🟡 US-Iran peace talks called off, unauthorized access to Claude Mythos, shots fired at Trump dinner, El Niño coming || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #17/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Executive summary Geopolitics: Another round of peace talks between the US and Iran failed to materialise, with Iran only committing to indirect talks in Islamabad and US negotiators cancelling their trip to Pakistan. * Will direct or indirect US-Iran negotiations, with representatives from both nations present in the same country, resume before June 2026? Our forecasters think there's an 80% (75% to 85%) chance. * Will the US end its naval blockade of Iranian ports before June 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 47% (33% to 70%) chance. * Will US strikes on Iranian territory, excluding strikes on boats, ships and waterborne drones, resume before June 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 46% (40% to 55%) probability. Technology and AI: Unauthorized users reportedly gained access to Anthropic's Mythos model. * Will Anthropic release a model to the general public that outperforms Mythos Preview on over 50% of examined benchmarks including the words “agentic” and “coding” before 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 73% (51% to 90%) chance. Economy: The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Trump's nominee to be Federal Reserve Chair looks set to get a Senate hearing after the Department of Justice dropped its case [...] --- Outline: (00:22) Executive summary (02:31) Geopolitics (02:34) Middle East (04:18) Asia (05:26) The Americas (05:29) The United States (06:26) The Rest of the Americas (07:05) Europe (07:17) Economy (08:24) Technology and artificial intelligence (10:59) Nature and climate (12:57) Miscellaneous --- First published: April 27th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-iran-peace-talks-called-off-unauthorized [https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-iran-peace-talks-called-off-unauthorized?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=sentinel_team&utm_campaign=ai_narration]. --- Images from the article: Via CSIS [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UEOW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26236d8c-2534-4fbf-b554-836341b516ba_864x361.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UEOW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26236d8c-2534-4fbf-b554-836341b516ba_864x361.png ---------------------------------------- Via NOAA. y axis is degrees centigrade. [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OL81!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2663d3d8-72f9-4652-be67-2a5f564c6a8f_1100x850.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OL81!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2663d3d8-72f9-4652-be67-2a5f564c6a8f_1100x850.png ---------------------------------------- Via FEWS. [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!H7lv!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5742f9ef-0cfc-4951-a420-37899cf453e0_1268x900.png]https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!H7lv!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5742f9ef-0cfc-4951-a420-37899cf453e0_1268x900.png Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts [https://pocketcasts.com/], or another podcast app.

″🟡 US seizes Iranian cargo ship, Iran-US peace talks uncertain, cyberattack estimates || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #16/2026″ by Nuño Sempere

Executive summary Geopolitics: The US seized an Iranian cargo ship while enforcing its blockade of Iranian ports. Iran says it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the blockade ends. * Will there still be ongoing hostilities between the US and Iran on November 3, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 20% (5% to 40%) chance. * Will the Democrats take the Senate in the US midterms? Our forecasters believe there's a 41% (10% to 63%) probability. * Will enough US states join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact for it to reach 270 Electoral College votes by November 7, 2028? Our forecasters think there's a 12.5% (10% to 20%) chance. * If so, and conditional on the Supreme Court ruling on its constitutionality, will the Supreme Court rule in favour of the Compact? Our forecasters believe there's a 35% (10% to 57%) probability. * If the Compact gets to the 270 threshold and stands before November 7, 2028, what is the probability of a US civil war by 2030? Our forecasters provide a 2% (0.5% to 7%) estimate. * If it does not, what is the probability of a US civil war by 2030? [...] --- Outline: (00:17) Executive summary (03:50) Geopolitics (03:53) Middle East (06:34) The Americas (06:37) The United States (08:55) The Rest of the Americas (09:33) Asia (10:08) Africa (10:23) Economy (12:01) Technology and artificial intelligence --- First published: April 20th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-seizes-iranian-cargo-ship-iran [https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-seizes-iranian-cargo-ship-iran?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration] --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO [https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=sentinel_team&utm_campaign=ai_narration].