The Art of Diplomacy

Boiling the Frog — Germany, Ukraine and the Limits of Escalation (with Wolfgang Schmidt)

In this episode of The Art of Diplomacy, Josh Yaffa speaks with Wolfgang Schmidt, former Head of the German Chancellery and one of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s closest advisers during the first years of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Schmidt offers a rare behind-the-scenes account of how Germany navigated the most consequential foreign policy crisis in Europe since the end of the Cold War. He reflects on the origins of the Zeitenwende speech, the difficult decisions around military support for Ukraine, and the challenge of balancing solidarity with the risks of escalation. The conversation explores one of the central strategic debates of the war: whether Western support successfully “boiled the frog” by increasing pressure on Russia step by step, or whether it amounted to “killing Ukraine softly” by providing enough aid to survive, but not enough to win decisively. Schmidt also discusses Germany’s efforts to keep Europe united, the diplomacy that led China to publicly oppose nuclear threats by Russia, and the prisoner exchange that secured the release of Evan Gershkovich and other political prisoners held in Russia. Drawing on his experience at the center of German government, Schmidt reflects on the realities of decision-making under uncertainty and on what diplomacy can achieve when every option carries risks. For the introduction to this episode, Florence Gaub is joined by Joshua Yaffa, who conducted the conversation with Wolfgang Schmidt on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. This episode was recorded at the Munich Security Conference in February 2026. * GLOSSARY * Nuclear signalling is a key element of nuclear deterrence, including deliberate actions, statements, or military measures by states to communicate their nuclear capabilities and intentions in order to influence the behavior of others. (https://www.cgai.ca/war_in_ukraine_nuclear_signalling_coercion_and_deterrence [https://www.cgai.ca/war_in_ukraine_nuclear_signalling_coercion_and_deterrence]) * Tactical nuclear weapons are smaller nuclear warheads and delivery systems intended for use on the battlefield or for a limited strike. (https://www.britannica.com/technology/tactical-nuclear-weapon [https://www.britannica.com/technology/tactical-nuclear-weapon]) * Bali Declaration: Final document issued by leaders at the G20 Summit 2022, in which most countries condemned Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and all countries present—including Russia—agreed that the use or threat of nuclear weapons is not permitted. (https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/60201/2022-11-16-g20-declaration-data.pdf [https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/60201/2022-11-16-g20-declaration-data.pdf])

Sanna Marin on Changing Your Mind without Losing Yourself

In this episode of The Art of Diplomacy, Florence Gaub speaks with former Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin. Leading a country through a pandemic, an energy crisis, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and Finland’s historic accession to NATO, Marin faced a series of decisions that challenged long-held assumptions about security, leadership, and political strategy. In this conversation, she reflects on the role of trust in resilient societies, the importance of listening in negotiation, and why effective leaders must be willing to change course when circumstances shift. Drawing on her experience steering Finland through one of the most consequential periods in its modern history, Marin explains why knowing your own goals is just as important as understanding those of your counterpart. The discussion explores Finland’s distinctive approach to security and preparedness, the political and diplomatic path into NATO, and the challenge of building consensus in moments of profound uncertainty. At its heart, however, this is a conversation about adaptability: how individuals, governments, and societies can remain flexible without abandoning their values—and why the ability to change your mind may be one of the most important leadership skills of all. Before the conversation with Sanna Marin, Florence Gaub is joined by Benedikt Franke, CEO of the Munich Security Conference, to reflect on Finland’s remarkable journey into NATO and the diplomatic leadership that helped make it possible. This episode was recorded in May 2026 in Hamburg.

Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein about Diplomacy in the Time of Monsters

In this episode, Joshua Yaffa speaks with Prince Zeid bin Ra’ad Zeid al-Hussein, one of the central architects of the modern international human rights system. From helping to establish the International Criminal Court to serving as United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Prince Zeid has spent decades confronting the tension between moral ideals and political power. At a moment when international law, human rights, and multilateral institutions appear increasingly fragile, he reflects on what these systems were actually built to do—and why they were never guaranteed to survive. The conversation explores fear, nationalism, authoritarianism, and the recurring cycles of history, but also the role diplomacy can still play in preventing societies from sliding into violence. Prince Zeid speaks candidly about the realities of dealing with governments accused of abuses, the limits of international institutions, and the psychological burden of speaking on behalf of people suffering under war, repression, and injustice. He argues that human rights are not abstract ideals, but practical restraints designed to protect humanity from its own worst instincts. The conversation also turns to the United States, the erosion of postwar norms, the rise of exclusionary politics, and the question of whether the current global order is entering a dangerous new phase. Throughout, Prince Zeid remains both unsentimental and deeply committed to the idea that diplomacy, when practiced skillfully, can still produce extraordinary outcomes. Recorded at the Munich Security Conference in February 2026. * Antonio Gramsci: Italian politician, founder of the Italian Communist Party (https://www.britannica.com/biography/Antonio-Gramsci [https://www.britannica.com/biography/Antonio-Gramsci]) * Omar al-Bashir: Former President of Sudan (https://www.britannica.com/biography/Omar-Hassan-Ahmad-al-Bashir [https://www.britannica.com/biography/Omar-Hassan-Ahmad-al-Bashir]) * Jörg Haider: Austrian politician (https://www.britannica.com/biography/Jorg-Haider [https://www.britannica.com/biography/Jorg-Haider]) * Karl Lueger: Austrian politician (https://www.britannica.com/biography/Karl-Lueger [https://www.britannica.com/biography/Karl-Lueger]) * Libya 2011/UN Security Council Resolution 1970: During the Libyan civil war, the government used violence against the civilian population. The resolution referred the situation to the ICC, imposed an arms embargo and targeted sanctions. (https://unscr.com/en/resolutions/1970/ [https://unscr.com/en/resolutions/1970/]) * The End of History: Theory by Francis Fukuyama, positing Western-style liberal democracy as the last ideological stage in the long march of history. (https://www.britannica.com/biography/Francis-Fukuyama [https://www.britannica.com/biography/Francis-Fukuyama]) * Jus Cogens: Universally binding norms in international law which cannot be overridden by treaties or agreements. (https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/jus_cogens [https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/jus_cogens]) * Rome Conference, 1998: https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/icc-statute-1998 [https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/icc-statute-1998] * The Nuremberg Principles establish that individuals, not just states, are accountable under international law for war crimes and crimes against humanity. (https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/2024-05/Rome-Statute-eng.pdf [https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/2024-05/Rome-Statute-eng.pdf]) * Magna Carta (1215): Declared the sovereign to be subject to the rule of law and the liberties held by “free men”. (https://www.britannica.com/topic/Magna-Carta [https://www.britannica.com/topic/Magna-Carta]) * Charlottesville 2017: In August 2017, a white supremacist rally took place in Charlottesville, Virginia. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/local/charlottesville-timeline/ [https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/local/charlottesville-timeline/]) * Manchuria: Japanese invasion of the Manchuria region of China in 1931, after the Japanese army staged a false flag event as a pretext to invade. (https://www.britannica.com/place/Empire-of-Japan/The-Manchurian-Incident [https://www.britannica.com/place/Empire-of-Japan/The-Manchurian-Incident]) * Abyssinia: The Italo-Ethiopian War (1935–36) led to the annexation and occupation of Ethiopia (then known as Abyssinia) by the Kingdom of Italy. (https://www.britannica.com/event/Italo-Ethiopian-War-1935-1936) [https://www.britannica.com/event/Italo-Ethiopian-War-1935-1936]) * Rhineland: On 7 March 1936, German troops re-occupied the de-militarized Rhineland zone. (https://germanhistorydocs.org/en/nazi-germany-1933-1945/remilitarization-of-the-rhineland-1936 [https://germanhistorydocs.org/en/nazi-germany-1933-1945/remilitarization-of-the-rhineland-1936])

Poker, not Chess: Benjamin Haddad on Diplomacy Today

In this third episode of The Art of Diplomacy, co-host Florence Gaub travels to Paris to talk to Benjamin Haddad, French Minister Delegate for European Affairs. Haddad is one of the key figures shaping France’s role in Europe at a moment of geopolitical upheaval. He describes a role that sits at the intersection of European politics, security, and economic strategy, where building coalitions and moving quickly are often more important than perfect processes. Drawing on his path from think tank analyst to government diplomat, he reflects on the shift from observing decisions to taking responsibility for them. At the heart of their conversation stands the craft and art of negotiations. Beyond negotiation tactics, the episode looks at the changing nature of diplomacy itself. In a more interconnected and fast-moving world, influence no longer flows only through formal channels. Diplomacy has become more networked, more public, and more dependent on trust—both between states and between individuals. Haddad finally challenges the common idea of diplomacy as a game of chess. Instead, he sees it closer to poker – defined by incomplete information, risk, and the ability to read situations in real time. For the introduction of this episode, Florence Gaub is joined by her co-host, Joshua Yaffa, staff writer for The New Yorker.

Ian Bremmer and Dan Kurtz-Phelan on Platforms of Diplomacy

In this second episode of "The Art of Diplomacy", Florence Gaub is joined by journalist and New Yorker writer Joshua Yaffa to explore diplomacy as it unfolds in real time—at the Munich Security Conference. Together, they reflect on the unique nature of the conference itself: a space where global politics is not only discussed on stage, but shaped and processed in hallways, over coffee, and in countless informal encounters. Through two conversations recorded in Munich, Yaffa examines how this process works from different angles. With political scientist Ian Bremmer, he explores how diplomacy adapts to a moment of geopolitical rupture—when long-standing assumptions about cooperation and power are no longer stable, new alliances have to be shaped and policymakers are forced to recalibrate in real time. In his second conversation, with Foreign Affairs editor-in-chief Daniel Kurtz-Phelan, the focus shifts to interpretation: how ideas, signals, and strategic shifts are translated into language, analysis, and ultimately into policy. What does it take to make sense of a world where meaning is contested, and where tone can shape reality as much as substance? This episode was recorded on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in mid-February 2026. ---------------------------------------- Glossar: A G‑Zero world refers to a global order in which no single country or group of countries is both willing and able to provide effective international leadership. Coined by Ian Bremmer and Nouriel Roubini, it describes a leadership vacuum in which major powers are constrained by domestic priorities, leading to fragmented governance and weaker cooperation on global challenges. A G-Zero World | Foreign Affairs [https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/g-zero-world]