The New Asia Podcast

The Silver Lining for Vietnam of Trump’s Tariffs | Ep. 5

So… it’s a deal? In the latest New Asia Podcast, Muddy Waters’ Carson Block and Rob Medd unpack Trump’s recent announcement that the US has implemented a preliminary trade agreement with Vietnam, setting baseline tariffs at 20% and 40% for transshipments from China. The announcement puts Vietnam in a unique position, especially compared to how Trump is handling tariffs with areas like Canada and Europe. And as China continues to decline in relative importance to the US, countries like Vietnam continue to rise. So where does Vietnam go from here? We break down the whole trade landscape, including: * Vietnam’s reactions to Trump’s trade deal announcement * The impact of tariffs on everything from Vietnam’s exporters to their economy * FDI imports, FDI exports, and trade balance * How General Secretary Tô Lâm is capitalizing on this moment * Manufacturing and low-margin transshipments * Stock market reactions … and more To learn more about Muddy Waters Asia, please visit ⁠MuddyWatersAsia.com and follow us on ⁠X at @MuddyWatersAsia⁠.

How Vietnam’s Quiet Revolution Benefits From Trump’s Tariff Talk | Ep. 4

Emergency pod alert! Last Thursday, the federal court blocked Trump’s tariffs. This bombshell changes everyone’s trade talks, including Vietnam. But in our latest New Asia Podcast, we investigate how, irrespective of the ruling, General Secretary Tô Lâm and the Politburo are undertaking to transform Vietnam into a "prosperous, well-educated, healthy and independent country." We explain why we believe Trump’s tariff proposals may have actually helped stimulate reform. We also explore misconceptions about Tô Lâm and his push for government accountability, private sector growth, and infrastructure spending, de-emphasizing Vietnam's SOE sector, comparisons between Vietnam and China, DOGE, and how Vietnam will navigate diplomatic relations, manufacturing and exports going forward. CHAPTERS: * 00:00 - Intro * 01:56 - Tariff bombshell * 03:57 - Government action * 06:40 - Tô Lâm institutes change * 08:45 - Vietnam is not the same as China * 11:32 - Learning without dominating * 12:42 - Introducing responsibility * 16:47 - Trump family sets a precedent * 18:16 - Slimming the government * 21:31 - A contrast with DOGE * 25:13 - Potential digitization * 27:29 - Improving trade relationships * 28:14 - Time to invest To learn more about Muddy Waters Asia, please visit ⁠MuddyWatersAsia.com and follow us on ⁠X at @MuddyWatersAsia⁠.

“Vindia” Equities | New Asia Podcast Ep. 3

In the latest episode of The New Asia Podcast, Carson Block catches up with Muddy Waters Head of Asia Rob Medd for a comparison of Vietnam and India, especially in how to approach public equity investing. What sets these markets apart... and where do the real opportunities lie? Since 2003, Rob’s been on the ground and watching investments in India. He’s seen firsthand how India’s growth story has evolved. Together, he and Carson unpack the paradoxes of India and Vietnam, from infrastructure and entrepreneurship to corruption and capital markets. We dig into: - The (ironic) political and economic contrasts of Vietnam and India - How India’s market opportunities, sectors, business growth rates, and fund management landscape compare to Vietnam - Will India follow Vietnam’s industrial-heavy playbook with founder-led bets? - What India’s next economic chapter could mean for civil service workers and the "Indian Dream" - And the truth about FDI, GDP, valuations, corruption, and infrastructure To learn more about Muddy Waters Asia, please visit ⁠MuddyWatersAsia.com [https://muddywatersasia.com/] and follow us on ⁠X at @MuddyWatersAsia⁠. [https://x.com/muddywatersasia]

Tariffs, Smugglers, and Lawyers | New Asia Podcast Ep. 2

“It might be a slower GDP story, but there's a lot of grit in the Vietnamese economy.” - Rob Medd, Muddy Waters Asia In the second episode of The New Asia Podcast from Muddy Waters Asia, we’re reporting to you from Mumbai, India. But don’t worry - all eyes are still on Vietnam. Host Carson Block checks in with Rob Medd to unpack what’s really going on as Vietnam faces rising tariff threats and shifting global supply chains. While the headlines scream 46% tariffs, Rob explains why that number isn't likely to materialize, and how Vietnam’s government is responding behind the scenes. We dig into: * What a 10–25% tariff could actually mean for Vietnam’s exporters & FDI * Vietnam’s competitive position and outlook for its economic future - Trade balance pressures and credibility concerns * Creative (and legal-ish) workarounds to tariffs * …and why these tariffs could end up creating jobs (or should we say schemes) for lawyers & smugglers * How can the US and Vietnam give businesses confidence that factories won’t suddenly become too expensive to run * Whether companies like Samsung might freeze their CapEx * How Vietnam stacks up to India when it comes to navigating the tariff storm To learn more about Muddy Waters Asia, please visit ⁠MuddyWatersAsia.com [https://muddywatersasia.com/], follow us on ⁠X at @MuddyWatersAsia [https://x.com/muddywatersasia]⁠ and subscribe to the ⁠Muddy Waters Asia email newsletter [https://muddywatersasia.substack.com/].

How Vietnam Became the Bellwether of Trump’s Tariff Policies - The New Asia Podcast Episode #1

In the debut episode of The New Asia Podcast from Muddy Waters Asia, host Michael Coolbaugh sits down with Rob Medd, Head of Asia at Muddy Waters, to unpack Vietnam’s rising role in the global economy. From trade wars to transshipment, from Cold War history to future tech investments, this is a comprehensive, boots-on-the-ground look at how Vietnam became a key player in the New World Order. Whether you’re an investor, a policy watcher, or just curious about Asia’s future, this episode lays the groundwork. * Why some are calling it Liberation Day and what it means for Asia * How Vietnam has become the battleground of U.S.–China trade tensions * The rise of Vietnam through both legitimate FDI and controversial transshipment * The geopolitical tightrope Vietnam walks with China, the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine * What the “Bamboo Policy” means for Vietnam’s foreign relations * The legacy of the Vietnam War on modern global supply chains * Domestic policy shifts, digitization, and Vietnam’s push toward higher-value manufacturing * How Vietnam differs from China in terms of intellectual property, governance, and economic openness * What to watch next: tariffs, licensing crackdowns, education reform, and infrastructure investments To learn more about Muddy Waters Asia, please visit ⁠ [%E2%81%A0https%3A/muddywatersasia.com/%E2%81%A0]MuddyWatersAsia.com [https://muddywatersasia.com/]⁠, follow us on ⁠X at @MuddyWatersAsia⁠ [https://x.com/muddywatersasia] and subscribe to the ⁠Muddy Waters Asia email newsletter. [https://muddywatersasia.substack.com]