Were We Lucky, or Were We Good?

Episode 7 - Listening to Weak Signals

How Vulnerability and Listening to Weak Signals Can Save Lives: A Conversation with Gareth Lock  In this episode, Gareth Lock (from the Human Diver) shares a powerful personal story about a near-fatal cardiac event and explores how vulnerability, systems thinking, and recognizing weak signals can improve safety in outdoor and diving environments. Key Topics: * Gareth’s personal experience with a critical cardiac event and key lessons learned * The importance of listening to weak signals and small cues in safety management * How vulnerability models foster a safety culture that encourages speaking up * The concept of local rationality and understanding decision-making in context * Contrasting linear risk analysis with holistic systems thinking approaches * The benefits of framing risk positively: beneficial risks and growth opportunities * Fail-safe design principles: creating resilient systems that recover gracefully * The role of cognitive biases like hindsight bias and ways to counteract them * Applying safety science concepts to outdoor education and adventure activities * The significance of language and shared vocabulary in safety conversations Resources & Links: * Gareth Lock - The Human Diver [https://thehumandiver.com/]

Episode 6- Failing Forward (Jaime Overmyer)

In the world of adaptive outdoor education, the balance between safety and adventure is tenuous. One common challenge that many organizations face is the fear of failure among staff, especially in high-consequence situations. In this post, we’ll explore insights shared by Jaime Overmeyer of the Breckenridge Outdoor Education Center on how to transform the stigma of failure into a powerful tool for growth, confidence, and innovation. By creating a balance between clear policies with trust and flexibility for innovation, Jaime describes how she has built an organizational mindset of "failing forward" on the pathway of continuous improvement.

Episode 5 - Five Steps Towards Climate Resilience (Shana Tarter)

SUMMARY  This episode explores the impact of climate change on outdoor and experiential education, emphasizing proactive risk management and organizational resilience. Guest Shana Tarter shares insights on adapting to climate threats, rethinking risk assessment, and implementing strategic planning to proactively manage risk and promote mission continuity. CHAPTERS 00:00 Introduction to the Podcast and Guest 01:36 The Opportunity to Be Good Rather than Lucky 02:17 Impact of Climate Change on Outdoor Programs 04:24 The Dichotomy of Luck and Good 05:43 Recognizing Slow-Moving Threats 07:41 Lessons from COVID-19 for Climate Adaptation 08:48 Mental Models and Sunk Cost Bias 10:24 Incentives for Change in Risk Management 12:59 Evolving Risk Assessment Models 14:30 Dynamic Risk Assessment in Climate Change 18:22 Collaboration in Decision-Making 20:12 Navigating the Yellow Zone of Risk 21:04 Proactive Approaches to Risk Management 23:56 Operational Resilience and Planning 26:04 Informed Consent and Communication 27:54 Moving from Lucky to Good 28:19 Final Thoughts and Action Steps RESOURCES Wilderness Climate Action Group - https://www.linkedin.com/groups/12345678/ [https://www.linkedin.com/groups/12345678/] Journal Article:  https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10.1177/10806032241296526 [https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10.1177/10806032241296526]

Episode 4 - Avalanche Professional Gets Caught (Dan Veenhuizen)

GUEST: DAN VEENHUIZEN WHAT HAPPENS WHEN HIGHLY TRAINED AVALANCHE PROFESSIONALS GET CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE OF THEIR OWN?   What were the factors that set them up to fail, and what were the good habits and practices that helped to mitigate the impact?  Join us for a curious, humble examination of the lessons learned from this incident - and how we might apply these lessons in other aspects of our lives and outdoor adventures.   Were they lucky, or were they good?   Key Topics * Dan’s personal avalanche accident story and the sequence of events * How terrain configuration and wind slabs contributed to the avalanche * The importance of probabilistic hazard assessment and recognizing changing conditions * The role of heuristics such as social proof, confirmation bias, and familiarity in decision-making * Group dynamics and the influence of expert familiarity on safety judgments * Strategies for building safety routines: intentional checkpoints and debriefing * The value of modeling vulnerability and honest communication in safety culture * The shift in avalanche education from terrain to decision-making and group psychology * Concepts of fail safe vs. fail safe design in outdoor risk management * Continuous learning and promoting a culture of sharing near misses and mistakes RESOURCES & LINKS * The North American Avalanche Danger Scale [https://avalanche.org/avalanche-forecast/danger-scale/] * ICSP Conference (International Snow Science Workshop) [https://issw2023.org/] * Ian McCammon and Sarah Boilen's work on field debriefs [https://avalanche.org/] * Canadian Avalanche Association Curriculum [https://avalanche.org/] * Heuristics and Decision Making in the Context of Avalanche Safety [https://www.avalanche.org/]

Episode 3 - Snow Shelter Collapses on School Group (Deb Ajango)

What happens when a seemingly benign activity, one that has been done many times before, drifts into riskier terrain than usual? And how do some decisions and factors that occurred earlier on the program amplify the impact of this unexpected event? Join outdoor risk consultant and author Deb Ajango, who shares the story of an incident she was brought in to review with a school that experienced a snow shelter (quinzhee) collapse on some of their participants. What role did luck and other factors play in this unfortunate event?