Craft Politics

Alberta Separatism with Evan Menzies

In February, Dave Cournoyer told us Alberta was sliding toward a separation referendum the pro-Canada side wasn't ready to fight. Three months later, the referendum is both stalled and very much alive — a court has locked the separatist petition in a drawer, and the government's backup plan collapsed when it announced a result before the vote happened. So we brought in Evan Menzies — Crestview Strategy VP, former director of communications for the United Conservative Party and the Wildrose caucus before it, with a front-row seat to the 2017 merger that created the UCP. He's spent years mobilizing grassroots support for Alberta's energy sector — so on the separatist base, he isn't guessing. And he's just written the conservative case for staying in Canada, the conversation we really wanted. What we got into: * The gong show, explained. A court ruling, a botched press release, and 700,000 signatures across two petitions — how Alberta ended up with two referendum questions and a constitutional headache. * One question, two messages. "Do you want to leave Canada?" or "Do you want to stay?" — the wording is the whole ballgame, and the gentler version is both the Premier's escape hatch and the separatists' grievance. * The establishment stitch-up. Andrew brings the Scottish and Brexit playbook: block the vote people want, and you don't kill the movement — you grow it. * Gasoline and a match. Evan's sharpest line, on the pitch for a blank-slate constitution — building a country from scratch and hoping it works out "after the explosion." * The pipeline clock. Shovels promised by September 2027, conveniently just before an election. What happens to the temperature if the ground is still frozen? * The conservative case for Canada. Vimy Ridge, a Team Canada jersey, and why Evan thinks giving up on the country is the least conservative thing an Albertan could do. Also discussed: why one in four Albertans you meet arrived in the last five years (we suspect Evan's own boosterism is to blame), the National Energy Program as Alberta's inherited trauma, why a Stéphane Dion unity tour is a federalist's nightmare, and Joseph's campaign to draft Evan as Alberta's next lieutenant governor. Evan's read: the separation debate is mainstream now, the next four months are "a tornado," and the fight that matters may be the election that follows, not this fall's vote. Find Evan's writing on Substack. [https://evanmenzies.substack.com/]

James Wharton on Reform's Surge and Starmer's Survival

Sixty episodes ago, James Wharton came on the show with a Labour government struggling to find its sea legs. 15 months later, Keir Starmer is fighting for his job. So we brought James back. Lord Wharton of Yarm — former Conservative MP for Stockton South, the kind of Red Wall seat Reform now eats for breakfast. What we got into: * Why Starmer probably survives the week. The would-be regicides aren't coordinated, aren't coalescing, and the PM has called their bluff. The catch: being a process-driven lawyer who decides he wants to stay is a survival strategy until it isn't. * The Streeting moment that wasn't. Reports that the Health Secretary tried to see Starmer one-on-one after cabinet, and was told to wait. Why that matters more than it sounds. * The Burnham brand puzzle. Why does the press keep calling the Mayor of Greater Manchester the saviour the Labour Party's been waiting for, when the by-election ground nearest his door just went Green? James and Andrew both served alongside him. Both have thoughts. * Reform's ceiling problem. 1,453 councillors gained, 14 councils taken, breakthroughs in Scotland and Wales — and vote share still down from last year's locals. James on why this might be peak Reform, not the launchpad it looks like. * The non-aggression pact question. Should the Tories cut a deal with Reform? James's answer is emphatic, and Andrew brings in the Canadian comparison — what actually had to happen before Reform and the PCs merged in 2003. * The Carney contrast. James's best line of the episode: Carney is pulling off the trick Starmer was elected to do. Also discussed: why Hackney's transgender-sanctuary-and-Palestine-twinning agenda doesn't speed up the bin collection, why Labour quietly cooled on votes at 16 once 16-year-olds started voting Green, and the evening with Liz Truss we both attended the night before recording. Five-party politics, no majorities anywhere, and a Prime Minister whose own MPs can't decide whether to push him or just let him quietly tip over.

Kyla Ronellenfitsch on the Conservatives' brand problem

For forty years, the Conservative Party owned cost of living. Not anymore — and Kyla Ronellenfitsch has the polling to prove it. This week on Craft Politics: pollster and data scientist Kyla Ronellenfitsch joins Joseph Lavoie to answer whether the CPC has quietly lost its forty-year brand on the economy, with new data showing Mark Carney's Liberals now lead Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives on managing the cost of living. We discuss: * Why the Liberals lead the Conservatives by five points on managing the cost of living, and what that means for a forty-year Conservative brand asset * The favourability ladder and why its order matters more than the horse race * Why Poilievre's rebrand kept snapping back to attack mode, and whether the Davos speech quietly locked in Carney's brand * The narrative reset on young Canadians — the CPC has gone from +35 to +5 with young men in sixteen months Chapters:0:00 — Joseph admits he's been wrong on cost of living1:23 — Is cost of living still Canada's top issue?5:54 — The +5 disaster: how the Liberals took the CPC's brand11:15 — Carney halo vs Poilievre bad vibes14:42 — The Davos speech that wouldn't quit17:29 — The favourability ladder, top to bottom20:25 — Why Poilievre's rebrand snapped back24:41 — Stop saying young Canadians are conservative29:53 — The elder millennial sweet spot35:30 — Avi Lewis and the anti-corporate lane the NDP keeps missing40:42 — The single number to watch in twelve months Find Kyla on Substack: https://relaywithkyla.substack.com [https://relaywithkyla.substack.com]Listen to her podcast Culture Lab on Air Quotes Media — Craft Politics is a cross-border political podcast where Canadian and British experts come on to answer one political question per episode. Co-hosted by Joseph Lavoie (former senior advisor in a Canadian Prime Minister's Office) and Andrew Percy (former UK Conservative MP). Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/craft-politics/id1790715962 [https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/craft-politics/id1790715962]Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Zaw8zZHe7qiFYIby7lKRB [https://open.spotify.com/show/3Zaw8zZHe7qiFYIby7lKRB]Web: https://www.craftpolitics.fm [https://www.craftpolitics.fm] Joseph Lavoie on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/josephlavoie/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/josephlavoie/]Andrew Percy on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-percy-b996b431a/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-percy-b996b431a/] Guest inquiries: joseph.lavoie@crestviewstrategy.com [joseph.lavoie@crestviewstrategy.com] #CraftPolitics #CanadianPolitics #Polling #PoliticalAnalysis #PoliticalResearch

Rudy Husny Breaks Down Quebec's Political Landscape

We brought in Rudy Husny — former senior advisor to Ed Fast at International Trade, two-time federal Conservative candidate in Outremont, 2020 Conservative leadership contender, and one of the most thoughtful federal Conservative voices on Quebec politics — to make sense of what has happened in the last 10 weeks. What we got into: * Why the CAQ is inching back. New premier Christine Fréchette is quietly stealing votes from the Liberals without really announcing anything. The "Fréchette as Mark Carney" framing is everywhere — Rudy explains why it's lazy. * Charles Milliard's Bill 96 stumble. Three clarifications on the notwithstanding clause in one week. Rookie error or structural problem? (Probably both.) * PSPP's doubling-down problem. He'd gain eight points by dropping the referendum promise. He won't. Even Lucien Bouchard has told him to walk it back. Rudy on why the rigidity actually matters. * The Bill 21 wildcard. A Supreme Court decision is pending and could drop during the campaign. Why the outcome matters to every province, not just Quebec. * Caucus management as stock exchange. Rudy's best line of the episode: when you're high in the polls, invest in your caucus — that's when you'll need the return later. A warning for Carney, and a post-mortem on Poilievre. * The federal Conservative puzzle. Why Quebec keeps breaking the CPC's heart, and whether Dan Robertson's radical idea — stop running Conservative candidates in Quebec entirely — has any merit. Also discussed: why Quebec staffers are quitting cabinet jobs now rather than six months from now (we've both been there), why "Premier of the West Island" isn't the same as Premier of Quebec, and how Fréchette showed up in Ottawa, demanded answers from Sean Fraser on the notwithstanding clause, and walked out looking like the strong woman in the room. Three scenarios, minority government most likely, and the CAQ and the PCQ are both still very much wildcards. Find Rudy on his French-language podcast https://www.youtube.com/@Danslescouloirs [https://www.youtube.com/@Danslescouloirs]

Majority Rules

Carney has his majority — 174 seats after sweeping all three by-elections. First time a Canadian minority has become a majority through floor-crossings and by-elections. But the bigger story is the Conservative collapse underneath: worst by-election losses in a decade, per Eric Grenier at The Writ. The last time results looked this bad? 2014 — the year before Harper lost. We dig into what the majority actually unlocks (committees, not just vibes), whether Carney governs like he has a new mandate, and what the by-election numbers really tell us about where the Conservatives stand. Then across the Atlantic: UK May elections are three weeks out. Reform projected to control 60 councils. Labour bracing for historic losses in England, Scotland, and Wales. Andrew breaks down what four-party politics actually looks like on the ground. Plus: Orbán loses Hungary, and Quebec's October election just got a lot more interesting — the PQ is fading, the Liberals are surging under Charles Milliard, and the CAQ just chose Christine Fréchette as their new leader. A deeper Quebec dive with a guest expert is coming soon. Eric Grenier's analysis at The Writ: https://substack.com/home/post/p-193964435