Azeem Azhar's Exponential View

Sir Niall Ferguson, renowned historian and Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, joins Azeem Azhar to discuss the evolving relationship between the U.S. and China, Trump's foreign policy doctrine, and what the new global economic and security order might look like.  (00:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yot-L8X8XC8])  What most analysts are missing about Trump  (05:43 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yot-L8X8XC8&t=343s])  The win-win outcome in Europe–U.S relations  (11:17 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yot-L8X8XC8&t=677s])  How the U.S. is reestablishing deterrence  (15:50 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yot-L8X8XC8&t=950s])  Can the U.S. economy weather the impact of tariffs?  (23:33 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yot-L8X8XC8&t=1413s]) Niall's read on China  (29:29 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yot-L8X8XC8&t=1769s])  How is China performing in tech?  (33:35 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yot-L8X8XC8&t=2015s])  What might happen with Taiwan  (42:43 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yot-L8X8XC8&t=2563s]) Predictions for the coming world order  Sir Niall Ferguson's links: * Substack: Time Machine [https://niallferguson.substack.com/] * Books: War of the World [https://www.amazon.com/War-World-Twentieth-Century-Conflict-Descent/dp/0143112392/], Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe [https://www.amazon.com/Doom-Politics-Catastrophe-Niall-Ferguson/dp/0593297377/] * Twitter/X: https://x.com/nfergus [https://x.com/nfergus] Azeem's links: * Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ [https://www.exponentialview.co/]  * Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ [https://www.azeemazhar.com/]  * LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar [https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar]  * Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem [https://x.com/azeem]  Our new show This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar" on 28 March.  Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

In this episode, Azeem Azhar speaks with Ryan Petersen, CEO and founder of logistics platform Flexport, about the current state of global trade amidst escalating tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and technological disruption. Ryan offers unique insights from the frontlines of the US-China trade war and explores how businesses are adapting to a rapidly changing landscape.  (00:00) Episode trailer  (01:12) Ryan's overall thoughts and predictions  (03:40) Why shipping is crucial to your everyday life  (08:07) Why tariffs may actually increase global shipping  (11:34) Who’s pausing their China shipments?  (14:29) The mindset of Flexport customers right now  (16:02) Is this the end of globalization?  (21:48) The fragility and resiliency of global trade  (25:27) The most underrated story in the world  (30:25) How tech has changed global trade  (36:31) Who will win in the new trade settings?  (41:20) What could a U.S-China trade deal look like?  Ryan's links: Flexport https://www.flexport.com/  Twitter/X https://x.com/typesfast  LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/rpetersen/ Azeem's links:  Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/  Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/  LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar  Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem  Our new show This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below. The format is experimental and we'd love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at live@exponentialview.co [live@exponentialview.co]. Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

Azeem Azhar welcomes Packy McCormick, founder and investor at Not Boring, to discuss the current tech landscape.  In this episode you'll hear:  (01:50) What Packy got wrong (and right) about Web3  (10:17) The shift to "know thyself and know thyself-nots"  (14:28) Europe just woke up  (18:46) Bits and atoms are cool again  (21:10) London airport shutdown reveals a deeper challenge  (23:32) A new kind of home energy infrastructure  (29:28) A theory on Eric Schmidt's new CEO role  (34:08) What's the role of nuclear in a solar + battery world?  (40:33) The coming tech boom  Our new show This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below. The format is experimental and we'd love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at live@exponentialview.co.  Packy's links:  * Substack: https://www.notboring.co/  * Twitter/X: https://x.com/packyM  Azeem's links:  * Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/  * Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/  * LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar  * Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem  Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

Anthropic's co-founder and chief scientist Jared Kaplan discusses AI's rapid evolution, the shorter-than-expected timeline to human-level AI, and how Claude's "thinking time" feature represents a new frontier in AI reasoning capabilities. In this episode you'll hear: * Why Jared believes human-level AI is now likely to arrive in 2-3 years instead of by 2030 * How AI models are developing the ability to handle increasingly complex tasks that would take humans hours or days * The importance of constitutional AI and interpretability research as essential guardrails for increasingly powerful systems Our new show  This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET on Exponential View. You can tune in through my Substack linked below. The format is experimental and we'd love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at live@exponentialview.co [live@exponentialview.co]. Timestamps: (00:00) Episode trailer (01:27) Jared's updated prediction for reaching human-level intelligence (08:12) What will limit scaling laws? (11:13) How long will we wait between model generations? (16:27) Why test-time scaling is a big deal (21:59) There’s no reason why DeepSeek can’t be competitive algorithmically (25:31) Has Anthropic changed their approach to safety vs speed? (30:08) Managing the paradoxes of AI progress (32:21) Can interpretability and monitoring really keep AI safe? (39:43) Are model incentives misaligned with public interests? (42:36) How should we prepare for electricity-level impact? (51:15) What Jared is most excited about in the next 12 months Jared's links: * Anthropic: https://www.anthropic.com/ [https://www.anthropic.com/] Azeem's links:  * Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ [https://www.exponentialview.co/] * Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ [https://www.azeemazhar.com/] * LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar [https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=uk] * Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem [https://x.com/azeem] Produced by supermix.io

Kevin Kelly is a co-founder of Wired Magazine and a renowned author and futurist.  Decades ago, Kevin predicted much of today's technological and cultural landscape. In this discussion, he presents his new bold vision for what’s coming next: The Handoff to Bots. In this episode, you’ll hear: * Why declining populations will radically reshape economies * What a bot-to-bot economy could look and feel like * Why people of the future might be paid to read emails * How AI could help humanity find deeper purpose * Why this future might be closer than you think Kevin’s links: Website/blog: https://kk.org/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/kevin2kelly Instagram: / kevin2kelly   Azeem's links: Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?ori... Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (02:17) The baby black hole behind Kevin's theory (10:49) Kevin's thesis: The handoff to bots (15:05) This world is closer than we think (19:32) The role of humans in this new world (21:23) Could monopoly influence pose a problem? (28:33) The nature of “struggle” in this new world (32:42) Could we see countries competing for population? (36:06) How a scarcity of humans might change what we value (42:30) What would 1994 Kevin think of 2025 Kevin's blog?   Production: Production by supermix.io