Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl

#105 Yun Sun: Something Has Changed in Beijing. Xi Believes Now Is His Final Chance on Taiwan

➡️ Watch the full interview ad-free, join a community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Dr. Yun Sun, a Senior Fellow and Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center. Yun is one of the most experienced China watchers and researchers, analyzing China’s foreign and domestic politics for over two decades which makes this conversation and her arguments both extremely interesting and kind of concerning. Because Yun argues that we are gravely under-estimating the risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan - not in some distant future but as soon as this year, 2026. She believes that the thinking in Beijing among China’s leadership is quickly changing: that they are abandoning the idea that time is on their side and that instead, China now believes that if it ever wants to get Taiwan, it’s now or never and the longer it waits, the harder it will get. And that we are now witnessing a confluence of several dynamics - none of which were likely or expected - but that are now all happening at the same time. And that together they are - as Yun Sun puts it - creating a “perfect storm for Taiwan in 2026” - and significantly increasing the odds that China might make its move.  In this conversation, we talk about what these factors are - from the US foreign policy and China’s perception of Donald Trump to the Ukraine war - how likely a Chinese invasion this year is or what the recent purges of the leadership of the Chinese military - and the fact that Xi Jinping now has direct, unlimited command of China’s armed forces - mean in this context.

#104 Andrew Monaghan: The West Still Doesn’t See Russia’s Real Plan. Ukraine Is Just the Beginning

➡️ Watch the full interview ad-free, join a community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Andrew Monaghan, a longtime Russia analyst and one of the most interesting – and contrarian – voices in the Western debate about Russian strategy and power. A lot of Andrew’s recent work focuses on a simple but uncomfortable idea: that the West fundamentally misunderstands Russia - not because we lack information, but because we keep using the wrong lenses. We tend to see Russia as irrational, tactical, reactive, or simply blundering its way through events – especially since the invasion of Ukraine. Andrew argues something quite different. That Russia is strategic, that it has a long-term view of where it’s going, and that many of the things that look like chaos or incompetence make a lot more sense once you look at how Russian strategy is actually conceived and implemented. In this conversation, we talk about whether Russia really has a grand strategy, what that strategy is trying to achieve, and how the war in Ukraine fits into it – or doesn’t. We get into Russian geoeconomic thinking, mobilization, maritime power, and why focusing only on battlefield performance might be misleading when thinking about where Russia is heading over the next decade. Throughout the conversation, we push back on each other a lot and I'd say that even now I still disagree with much of what he says. But I find his perspective that challenges a lot of deeply held assumptions in Western analysis really interesting - and definitely worth a listen.

#103 Carlo Masala: What if Russia Wins - And NATO Falls Apart?

➡️ Watch the full interview ad-free, join a community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Carlo Masala, a professor of international politics at the Bundeswehr University Munich and author of a book that got quite a lot of attention all across Europe called “If Russia Wins”. In the book Carlo portrays a hypothetical scenario - in which Russia ends up achieving a limited victory in Ukraine, pursues a period of normalization with Europe and a few years later, launches a limited attack on Estonia, in an attempt to break up NATO unity - which - in the scenario - turns out to be a success.  Carlo is not the first person to present a scenario in which Russia tests NATO but what makes this different and unique is how exceptionally realistic this one is. From the start to finish, I could genuinely see most of it happening - and in many instances, I thought the scenario was not just plausible but the most likely way things would happen - which makes it all the more frightening and worth consideration.  In the conversation, we pick it apart, explore how it would play out and what would it mean. We talk about whether Russia would have an appetite for another military gamble after Ukraine, whether the Estonians would just let it happen, whether Europe has learned its lesson on how to deal with Russia in the past 4 years, what would not wanting to risk a World War 3 over a small town in Estonia mean for NATO and European security - or whether there is any hope that an American president would come to aid of Europe at a time when Trump is literally demanding Greenland. And whether - effectively - NATO just isn't already dead anyway  - and if it is, what does that mean for all of us.

#102 Rory Cormac: Coups, Assassinations and Covert Wars Are Back - And the Rules Have Changed

➡️ Watch the full interview ad-free, join a community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Rory Cormac, a professor at the University of Nottingham who’s professional is on a very particular subject - how states engage in and deploy “covert action” - subversive actions against their opponents carried out in secrecy with that the state itself denying its own involvement. Or in other words, the shadiest stuff that spies from nations all around the world do - from overthrowing foreign governments, arming proxy groups and carrying out sabotage and assassinations. If you are interested in geopolitics, this probably naturally comes as a fascinating subject - and so we talk about how various nations approach and engage in this area - from the U.S. effort to overthrow Maduro’s regime in Venezuela and its rich history of overthrowing foreign regimes, Russian wave of covert action in Europe and what European countries like the UK and France covertly do or not do themselves, how does China approach this and why does it seem to stay under the radar - or why if covert action is meant to be secret, we seem to read about all the time in mainstream news - and much more.

#101 EU Defence Chief: “We Need a European Army. This Is What Happens If the US Takes Greenland” | Andrius Kubilius

➡️ Watch the full interview ad-free, join a community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/ This is a conversation with Andrias Kubilius - the European Union’s Commissioner for Defense and Space.  For those not that familiar with the European Union - a commissioner is kind of like a minister in a nation state, a top politician, responsible for a particular area. Historically the EU has never had a Defence Commissioner because it is not a military organization but since the invasion of Ukraine that has changed quite radically and in 2023, Andrias became the first ever EU Defense commissioner, responsible primarily for rebuilding the European defense industry, rearming Europe and making it ready and able to defend itself. Needles to say, it’s a pretty important role and as the European Union is trying to act more as an independent geopolitical actor, it’s only becoming more important. And for how important his role is, he was extremely open and transparent in this conversation.  We talked about how to make Europe prepared to survive in an increasingly dangerous world and defend itself on its own, without anyone coming to save it. Both about what is he doing to make that happen but also how the European Union needs to change to make it possible , including why he believes that we need a true European army.  We talk a lot about the complicated relationship with the United States - about why and how Europe needs to immediately prepare for United States withdrawing from Europe, about what will be the future of NATO once that happens and whether the EU could replace it, and how would Europe respond if the United States decide to take Greenland by force and  how destructive that would be for everyone. And about his views on the new US National Security Strategy - which he is very critical of and which frames the very institution he represents - the European Union - as an opposition to the interests of the United States and something that the US should try to dismantle.  And of course we talk about Russia - about how likely is the threat of a Russian aggression against EU and NATO or how prepared Europe is right now to face it. And much more.