Inside Prediction Markets

This NYC Bar Is Using Prediction Markets to Hedge Your Tab If the Knicks Win

A New York City bar is covering every customer's tab if the Knicks win game one — and they're hedging the entire risk on a prediction market. Chris and Henry break down why this is one of the smartest real-world use cases for prediction markets yet and how Mattress Mack was doing this years before prediction markets existed. Also, Polymarket resolves a MicroStrategy Bitcoin market to No even though the sale actually happened before the deadline and Kalshi launches the American Power Index. Then Josh (@spacemanOTH) joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Josh runs a two-person betting operation focused on college football, NBA player props, and prediction market making. He breaks down how he built his team by identifying complementary skill sets at BetBash, why profiling your competitors in Survivor is just as important as picking the right team, how he thinks about toxic order flow and protecting his book as a small operation, the rookie mistake of uploading quotes in a predictable window every day, and why he took a shot on Trump in 2024. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now. @insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry. Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewform This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal. 0:00 – NYC Bar Hedging Knicks 2:41 – Polymarket Resolves a Market Wrong 4:34 – Kalshi American Power Index 7:20 – Introducing Josh @spacemanOTH 9:52 – How Josh Built His Team 12:00 – RFQs: Free Money or a Dangerous Experiment? 16:00 – Profiling Competitors in Survivor and Market Making 23:00 – The Rookie Mistake That Cost Him 28:00 – Low-Hanging Fruit vs. Long Term Building 33:00 – Josh's Trump 2024 Bet 41:00 – Josh's Most Expensive Mistake #predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

The Insider's Guide to Prediction Market Terminology: Defining the Terms You Need to Know

Kyle Kuzma — yes, the NBA player — became an unlikely prediction market hero this week by clapping back at the DraftKings co-founder's Twitter tirade. Then: the Ninth Circuit signals it's going to rule against prediction markets on sports contracts, setting up the split circuit that everyone was expecting and almost certainly sending this to the Supreme Court. Plus, the New York Times runs a piece on regular people beating Wall Street on prediction markets. Then it's just Chris and Henry going deep on the terms that get thrown around constantly in prediction markets but rarely get properly defined. Adverse selection, top down, alpha, live betting, market making — each one broken down clearly with real examples, common misconceptions corrected, and listener questions answered along the way. If you've ever nodded along to a conversation in this space without fully understanding what's being said, this is the episode for you. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal. Chapters: 0:00 – Kyle Kuzma: Unlikely PM Hero 1:48 – Supreme Court Here We Come 4:39 – Regular Guys Are Beating Wall Street 7:06 – Defining Adverse Selection 10:30 – Defining Top Down 16:00 – Defining Alpha 22:51 – Defining Live Betting 30:00 – Listener Questions 34:15 – Defining Market Making#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Matt Kalish Crashes Out + 4casters Zach on the Future of Prediction Markets

Matt Kalish — co-founder of DraftKings — had a very public meltdown on Twitter this week about prediction markets, and Chris and Henry break down every angle. Sporttrade suspends OSB operations and Polymarket and Nasdaq announce perpetual contracts on individual stocks, which raises the obvious question: is this just an option with a different name?Then Zach from 4casters joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. 4casters has been quietly doubling year over year since 2021, approaching a billion in volume, and remains one of the only sharp-on-sharp exchanges in the space. Zach breaks down how that model actually sustains itself, why he's not rushing to become the twenty-fifth prediction market, what he really thinks the regulatory coin flip looks like over the next two years, and whether Polymarket USA just gets boxed out entirely if Novig gets to market first.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – Matt Kalish Crashes Out on Twitter4:39 – Sporttrade Suspends OSB6:27 – Polymarket and Nasdaq Announce Stock Perps8:30 – Introducing Zach From 4casters11:00 – From Telegram Group Chat to a Billion in Volume19:00 – Navigating Fees24:00 – Novig Boxing Out Polymarket USA34:00 – Prediction Markets Teach Humility?35:02 – Zach's Most Expensive Mistake#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

The Insider's Guide to Market Making on Prediction Markets

What actually is market making? If you've ever asked yourself that question, this is the episode for you.FanDuel and DraftKings just announced they're market making on prediction markets. Then Kalshi dropped numbers showing over 30% of their volume is now in combos — primarily sports parlays. Chris and Henry break down what it all means, whether sportsbooks actually have the capability to book sharp flow or whether they've just never been tested, and why price discovery on prediction markets might quietly be forcing a fairer game for everyone.Chris and Henry cover the full picture: how market makers make money, why it's harder than it looks, the difference between a market maker and a sharp, why you could be trading against Joe from the deli and not even know it, and what it actually takes to level up in a zero sum game where the sportsbook model would just kick you out. One of the more educational episodes the show has done — and a good one to send to anyone who keeps asking you to explain what you do.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – FanDuel and DraftKings Enter Market Making3:00 – Can Sportsbooks Actually Book Sharp Flow?5:00 – What Is Market Making?10:00 – How Market Makers Earn16:00 – The Difference Between a Market Maker and a Sharp22:00 – Are You Really Betting Against Joe from the Deli?30:00 – Are Prediction Markets Peer to Peer?#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Big Prediction Market Ghost Orders Scandal and How One Market Maker Beats Every Exchange

Polymarket had a rough week — and Chris and Henry break down both stories. First: ghost orders Then: their CMO was caught on a live stream nearly whispering something to a popular streamer before realizing he was on camera — a clip that went viral for all the wrong reasons. Also, Max Shen-Molesky of Coinflip Capital joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Max has quietly become one of the most dominant liquidity providers on prediction markets today — in both crypto binaries and sports. He breaks down his thesis that every market is effectively the same if you understand order books, how he made most of his early sports PNL in the first two months with zero competition, the wildest manipulation story you'll hear this year, and the most expensive bugs that have cost him. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now. @insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry. Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewform This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal. Chapters: 0:00 – Ghost Orders 2:00 – PM CMO Caught on Live Stream 4:20 – PM Oracle Contraversy 7:40 – Max Shen-Molesky Joins the Show 15:00 – Where Max Makes His Money 18:30 – Can You Manipulate Crypto Binary Markets? 24:00 – Why Every Market Is the Same 35:00 – The Strategy That Keeps Winning 51:00 – Most Expensive Mistake #predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting