Renting Vs. Buying: Demographics, Affordability, and The New Demand Cycle
In this episode of Wealth Unfiltered, Jeff Adler, Vice President of Yardi Matrix, breaks down the real-time data shaping today's multifamily housing market—and what it signals for investors navigating the next phase of the cycle.
We explore the key forces driving performance across markets, including elevated new supply in Sun Belt and Mountain West regions, shifting migration patterns, demographic tailwinds, and the widening rent-versus-buy gap that continues to support long-term rental demand.
Jeff also unpacks why the market is becoming increasingly fragmented, with smaller Southern and Midwest metros outperforming while high-supply markets like Orlando, Phoenix, and Denver continue to face pressure. He explains how real-time data is essential for understanding absorption trends, underwriting accurately, and identifying where opportunity is emerging beneath the surface.
Looking ahead, we discuss why rent growth is expected to remain muted in the near term, with stabilization beginning around 2026 and broader recovery taking shape into 2027—as supply normalizes and demand fundamentals reassert themselves.
This episode delivers a clear, data-driven framework for understanding where we are in the multifamily cycle—and how investors should position for what comes next.
Key Takeaways
* Multifamily supply remains elevated, particularly in Sun Belt and Mountain West markets, continuing to pressure rents and increase concessions.
* Strong structural demand persists, driven by household formation, aging demographics, downsizing boomers, and millennials renting longer due to affordability constraints.
* Rent growth is expected to remain subdued short term, with stabilization beginning in 2026 and broader recovery likely by 2027.
* Market performance is increasingly fragmented—smaller Southern and Midwest metros are outperforming while high-supply markets like Orlando, Phoenix, and Denver face continued pressure.
* Real-time data is critical for navigating today's cycle, improving underwriting precision, and identifying mispriced or oversupplied opportunities.
* Investors who focus on fundamentals—renewal strength, realistic rent assumptions, and local market dynamics—are best positioned for the next phase of the cycle.