The Economist Next Door

Do the Ultra-Wealthy Pay Their Fair Share in Taxes?

In this episode of The Economist Next Door, host Paul Mueller is joined by AIER colleagues Tom Savidge and Julia Cartwright to examine one of the most persistent claims in American politics: that billionaires pay little or nothing in federal taxes while ordinary workers carry the burden. The conversation breaks down the federal tax system — including taxes on income, capital gains, corporate earnings, and payrolls — showing why headlines about the ultra-wealthy often obscure reality. Along the way, the scholars explain why high-income earners still account for a disproportionate share of federal revenue even as the code contains a maze of deductions, exemptions, credits, and loopholes. The scholars explore the deeply convoluted — and often regressive — nature of the tax system, including the compliance costs, incentives, and distortions it creates for workers, investors, and entrepreneurs alike. The discussion touches on the "Bootleggers and Baptists" dynamic in tax policy, where moral arguments about fairness often align with the interests of well-connected groups that benefit from preserving complexity and special carveouts. The episode also examines the Laffer Curve and the idea that excessively high tax rates can discourage productive activity and ultimately reduce economic growth and tax revenue. What would a simpler, less distortionary tax system look like? And why is meaningful reform so difficult? Listen and find out!

Who Is the Greatest Economist of All Time—And Was He an Austrian?

What is the Austrian school of economics—and why does it still shape debates about markets, money, and government today? In this episode of The Economist Next Door, host Paul Mueller is joined by economists Pete Earle and Jeff Degner to break down one of the most influential—and controversial—traditions in economic thought. From the marginal revolution to modern debates over central banking, they explore how Austrian economists think about prices, knowledge, and human behavior. The conversation covers the socialist calculation debate, the role of interest rates in boom-bust cycles, and why ideas from Mises and Hayek continue to resonate in business, finance, and policy circles today. It also asks a provocative question: Who is the greatest economist to ever live?

The Most Powerful Position in Finance? Kevin Warsh and the Future of the Fed

Is the Federal Reserve Chair the most powerful person in the free world? In this episode of The Economist Next Door, host Paul Mueller is joined by Lydia Newman (Director of Monetary Policy, AIER) and William Luther (Director of AIER's Sound Money Project) to analyze the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve. Together, they unpack Warsh's views on inflation, the Fed's nearly $7 trillion balance sheet, and the role of forward guidance—along with what "reform" might actually look like in practice. Along the way, they examine the Fed's evolving footprint in financial markets, the tension between independence and accountability, and whether current policy is contributing to today's affordability challenges. From interest rates and stock markets to grocery bills and housing costs, this episode breaks down how decisions made in Washington ripple through everyday life—and what a different approach to monetary policy could mean for the economy going forward. Shownotes (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seOZ2IWD85s) [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seOZ2IWD85s)] 0:00 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seOZ2IWD85s] – Is the Fed Chair the most powerful person in finance? 1:24 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seOZ2IWD85s&t=84s] – Who is Kevin Warsh? 7:17 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seOZ2IWD85s&t=437s] – Warsh's views on inflation and the balance sheet 12:53 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seOZ2IWD85s&t=773s] – The problem with forward guidance and dot plots 25:57 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seOZ2IWD85s&t=1557s] – Can one person really change the FOMC? 37:59 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seOZ2IWD85s&t=2279s] – AI, shocks, and the future of the US economy 44:51 [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seOZ2IWD85s&t=2691s] – Why the Fed needs to get out of the MBS business 52:35 – Making the Fed boring again In this episode, Paul and his guests discuss the following: The All-Star Nominee: Kevin Warsh's journey from the youngest-ever Fed Governor at 35 to the potential next Chair Monetary Policy Reform: Why Warsh is skeptical of dot plots and favors a laser focus on price stability Shrinking the Footprint: The plan to get the Fed out of the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) business and reduce its outsized role in credit allocation Independence vs. Accountability: Balancing the Fed's need for insulation from politics with the public's right to transparency The K-Shaped Economy: How past Fed policy decisions contributed to the current affordability crisis in housing, healthcare, and education Political Theater: How ongoing criminal investigations and Supreme Court cases are impacting the current transition of power Stay Connected: Follow Paul Mueller: Senior Research Fellow at AIER [https://aier.org/people/paul-mueller/]. Follow The American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) [https://aier.org/] Subscribe: to The Economist Next Door [https://aier.org/podcasts/] for more deep dives into policy and economics. #FederalReserve [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/federalreserve] #KevinWarsh [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/kevinwarsh] #Economics [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/economics] #Inflation [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/inflation] #InterestRates [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/interestrates] #MonetaryPolicy [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/monetarypolicy] #Finance [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/finance] #AIER [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/aier] #Podcast [https://www.youtube.com/hashtag/podcast]

What Really Broke the Financial System?

*]:pointer-events-auto scroll-mt-[calc(var(--header-height)+min(200px,max(70px,20svh)))]" dir="auto" data-turn-id= "request-WEB:b70595c4-ead3-4e9e-b84f-33d4452cbec2-9" data-testid= "conversation-turn-20" data-scroll-anchor="true" data-turn= "assistant"> In this episode of The Economist Next Door, host Paul Mueller is joined by AIER colleagues Lydia Mashburn Newman and Pete Earle to discuss the 2008 financial crisis, from the collapse of Bear Stearns to the failure of Lehman Brothers and the emergency response to AIG. They examine how shifting government actions created uncertainty during the crisis, and how the Federal Reserve's response—near-zero interest rates, liquidity facilities, and large-scale asset purchases—transformed monetary policy and reshaped financial markets for the next decade. How do these monetary decisions and decimal points affect the everyday lives of Americans? Listen and find out!

Sex, Marriage, and Markets: What's Driving the Baby Bust?

*]:pointer-events-auto scroll-mt-[calc(var(--header-height)+min(200px,max(70px,20svh)))]" dir="auto" data-turn-id= "request-WEB:87289791-0d59-467b-8082-9e30cfe415ff-5" data-testid= "conversation-turn-12" data-scroll-anchor="true" data-turn= "assistant"> In this episode of The Economist Next Door, host Paul Mueller speaks with Jeff Degner and Aidan Grogan about the global fertility crisis and the sharp decline in family formation across advanced economies. Are falling birth rates primarily an affordability problem—or the result of deeper cultural changes? The conversation connects inflation, housing costs, and economic uncertainty with delayed marriage, shifting fertility preferences, and the emergence of dating apps as large-scale matching platforms that alter incentives, selection, and relationship formation. The discussion also introduces the concept of an "inflation culture" and its potential effects on time preference, planning horizons, and family decisions. The episode closes by examining what population decline means for economic growth, social cohesion, and the future of government.