Global Guessing Podcasts

A Conversation on Media Narratives and Forecasting the Russo-Ukrainian Crisis with Maxim Lott

In this podcast episode (recorded on 3/23/22) we spoke with Maxim Lott – the mind behind the Maximum Truth [https://maximumtruth.substack.com/] Substack and ElectionBettingOdds.com [https://electionbettingodds.com/] – to discuss the current military, political, and economic situation in Russia as it pertains to the Russo-Ukrainian crisis. As a former journalist for organizations like ABC and Fox, Maxim has deep experience operating within  mainstream media companies. And as a result of his time working for those institutions, he has focused his career on providing alternatives to mainstream media narratives, including the current war in Ukraine. Maxim has been covering (and forecasting [https://maximumtruth.substack.com/p/an-updated-understanding-of-russia?s=r]) the war in Ukraine throughout March, providing nuanced perspectives on the crisis. From casting doubt on the severity of the current sanctions regime impacting the Russian economy, to sharing sentiment polls from Russian citizens, Maxim consistently provides interesting vantage points on this conflict. Maxim also spent time in Eastern Europe before our conversation, and talks about his experience in the region and how that has impacted his analysis.

Tom Chivers on Nuance, Numeracy, and Forecasting in News Media

In this podcast episode, we sat down with Tom Chivers—author, journalist, and science writer for The i—to have a conversation on forecasting and the news media. We talked about his background in the media industry, his frustrations with mainstream news and its lack of nuance, his views on forecasting and prediction markets in media, and more. Tom previously wrote for BuzzFeed UK, served as the science editor for UnHerd [https://unherd.com], and has bylines with New York Times, Guardian, New Scientist, and The Telegraph. He often writes data-driven rebuttals to topics that are being primarily depicted in one way in the media, interjecting nuance into the conversations. In many ways, the same exercise as distinguishing signals from noise. Conducting journalism with a forecaster’s mindset. He's also written two books, The AI Does Not Hate You in 2019 and How to Read Numbers [https://www.amazon.co.uk/How-Read-Numbers-Statistics-Knowing/dp/1474619967] in 2021, and writes about similar topics discussed in our communities, including effective altruism, rationality, and forecasting. To our knowledge, Tom is one of the most prominent journalists writing about and covering quantified forecasts. In June of last year, Tom assembled a panel of superforecasters for an article on whether China will invade Taiwan [https://unherd.com/2021/07/will-china-invade-taiwan/] and has started to make his own predictions too! You can follow Tom on Twitter: @TomChivers [https://twitter.com/TomChivers].

Tina Fordham on Political Risk, Geopolitical Forecasting, and Top Risks of 2022

And we’re back! In this year’s first podcast, we are speaking with Tina Fordham [https://uk.linkedin.com/in/tina-fordham-08433519], Partner & Head of Global Political Strategy at Avonhurst [https://www.avonhurst.com/], a London-based advisory business. Tina is one of the most veteran players in the political risk industry, beginning her career at Eurasia Group where she launched Eurasia Group's financial markets business, including leading the Lehman Brothers-Eurasia Group index—the first political risk index on Wall Street. While there she also led the roll-out of Eurasia Group's European business. Since then, Tina’s career has included roles as Managing Director, Chief Global Political Analyst at Citigroup (the first position of its kind on Wall Street), as well as Member of the High-Level Panel for Women's Economic Empowerment—the first-ever UN High-Level Panel dedicated to promoting Women's Economic Empowerment. She also created her own framework for processing political risk, Vox Populi [https://reports.weforum.org/global-strategic-foresight/tina-fordham-citigroup-vox-populi-risk/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CVox%20Populi%20risk%E2%80%9D%20refers%20to,the%20business%20and%20investment%20environment.], which was born in the post-Arab Spring era that we will talk about in-depth. Today we will discuss Tina’s impressive career, her risk framework, and some specific forecasts she has made in her many roles as well as her thoughts on quantified forecasting and much more. We are very excited about this interview, and we think you will enjoy this one!

✅ How Peter Wildeford Forecasted the Ever Given Crisis and Profited

When the Suez Canal got blocked by the Ever Given shipping vessel a global trade crisis began, costing the global economy $10 billion a day. Knowing when this crisis would end had immense valuable, but predicting the clearing was easier said than done—as our own forecast showed. One person who got it done was Peter Wildeford, a top-100 forecaster on Metaculus and Forecast App, and the co-CEO of the think tank Rethink Priorities. Peter’s forecast was more accurate than most, letting him turn his foresight into triple-digit returns. In the inaugural episode of The Right Side of Maybe—a new podcast where we learn from and about elite forecasters—we talked to Peter about the method behind his Ever Given forecast and the ways in which he leveraged it for profit on Polymarket. We also talked to Peter about his background in forecasting and recent experience with prediction markets, as well as some of the most important areas of psychology and science where Peter thinks forecasters can improve. Find Peter Wildeford : https://twitter.com/peterwildeford [https://twitter.com/peterhurford] Rethink Priorities: https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/ [https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/] Global Guessing: https://globalguessing.com/#/portal/signup [https://globalguessing.com/#/portal/signup]

Forecasting the Omicron Variant with Juan Cambeiro

How should we understand the Omicron relative to Delta? How does Omicron change the nature of the pandemic and what steps should we be taking in response? These questions require navigating and quantifying uncertainty, while also making forecasts about the future. We could think of no one better than Juan Cambeiro [https://twitter.com/juan_cambeiro] for answers. Juan Cambeiro is a Global Guessing alum [https://globalguessing.com/juan-cambeiro-trsom/], Good Judgment superforecaster, and Metaculus analyst, who placed first in IARPA's FOCUS Tournament on COVID-19 forecasting and was the former first-place COVID forecaster on Good Judgment Open. Juan recently wrote a fantastic article on Metaculus [https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8801/omicron-what-we-know-what-to-expect--what-to-do/] about the Omicron variant–providing a concise analysis of the variant from an epidemiological and public health perspective, while also offering five concrete forecasts about it. In this podcast, we'll talk to Juan about how he analyzed and understood the variant, chose and forecasted these five questions, and key signals he’s identified and looking out for in the future. We'll also chat about how policymakers and others should respond to the variant and understand the information from these forecasts. At the end, we'll discuss additional forecasting questions we should be asking to better understand the variant's impact on the pandemic. Learn more: https://globalguessing.com/forecasting-omicron-juan-cambeiro/ [https://globalguessing.com/forecasting-omicron-juan-cambeiro/] Note: This podcast was recorded on December 6, 2021.