Flux News

In this episode of The Officials, we welcome a new voice to the show—Spyridon Kokas, the latest addition to the Officials team. Together, Ed and Spyridon dive deep into the imminent release of the Saudi Official Selling Prices (OSPs), expected tomorrow, and examine what recent changes in the Dubai physical market structure might mean for the August figures. They explore:  • The rise in Dubai physical premiums due to geopolitical tensions, especially the Israel-Iran conflict.  • Why June trading is critical to forecasting the August OSP.  • The Saudi strategy of discretionary OSP adjustments and what that implies for this month’s pricing.  • The broader OPEC+ narrative of market stability, including the ongoing unwind of voluntary production cuts.  • Summer burn factors and domestic demand dynamics in Saudi Arabia.  • Export behaviour amid Strait of Hormuz security concerns and their implications for crude pricing signals.   Expect sharp insights, data-backed expectations (hint: a 65–70 cent hike is on the table), and a continued theme of pricing discipline from Riyadh.  Don't miss our reports and real-time commentary on Twitter following the release. 🔗 Stay connected: Read our daily reports on Flux.live: https://flux.live/  Follow us on Twitter - @OnyxOfficials: https://x.com/OnyxOfficials  Jorge’s LinkedIn for real-time updates @ Jorge Montepeque:  ttps://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/  👉 More "The Officials Explain" videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLdOFnyMotk4U-xon44zYemCocDQ9SmYt  👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/  👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw  👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux  👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/  Follow us: https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup  YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives  LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/  X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge  TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/

In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and "Geek in the Seat" Harinder Sandhu to unpack the aftermath of the Israel-Iran conflict and its whiplash effect on global oil markets. With volatility collapsing, producer hedging accelerating, and refiners raking in profits, they look beneath the headlines to understand who actually came out on top - and why the bearish consensus might be getting ahead of itself.   This week’s discussion dives into: • The volatility unwind: how trade houses crushed overpriced options after the ceasefire • Why flat price ignored the news flow - and what Brent spreads reveal about true sentiment • The return of Iranian barrels, Trump’s oil tweets, and what they mean for 2025 balances • OPEC’s next move: paper unwind or physical flood? And why the Saudis are playing it slow • CTA, hedge fund, and retail whiplash: who faded the spike, and who got caught? • Crack spreads remain sky-high, even as UK refineries shut down. What's really going on here? • And more!   Want to trade? Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ [https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/]   🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 1st July, 2025.   👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ [https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/] 👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux [https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux] 👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re [https://www.flux.live/the-official-re]... 👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw [https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw]   https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup [https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup] Follow us:  YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives [https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives] LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/ [https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/] X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge [https://x.com/Onyx__Edge] TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup [https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup] Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/ [https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/]   CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode of Macro Mondays, James Brodie, James Todd & Will Cunliffe unpack the most volatile macro crosscurrents in markets as U.S. equities push to fresh all-time highs and the dollar resumes its downtrend.   Key highlights include: • U.S. consumer cracks widening • Housing on the brink • Fed doves emerge • Inflation expectations collapse • Employment weakness deepens • Equities defy fundamentals • Gold tests key support • Dollar dives • Hedge funds retreat: CTAs flip net short, and Andurand's flagship fund drops another 12.7% • BOE turns dovish • Tesla soars & Nvidia at new highs   Key data releases this week: 📅 Tuesday – US ISM manufacturing PMI, Fed Chair Powell speaks, JOLTS job openings, EZ PMIs & CPI 📅 Wednesday – Australian retail sales, US mortgage applications, ADP payrolls 📅 Thursday – US non-farm payrolls, ISM services PMI, jobless claims 📅 Friday – US holiday   This episode was recorded on Monday, the 30th of June, 2025 at 10.30AM BST.   👉 Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com 👉 Daily updates: Onyx Institute LinkedIn 👉 Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk 👉 Follow Onyx Institute: LinkedIn   🔔 Subscribe & turn on notifications so you don’t miss out on key market insights!   https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup [https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup] Follow us:  YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives [https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives] LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/ [https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/] X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge [https://x.com/Onyx__Edge] TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup [https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup] Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/ [https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/]   CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

This week on The Officials, Will and Ed unpack one of the most volatile weeks in recent oil market memory, as geopolitical theatre and contractual chaos collide.   With crude prices swinging wildly and trust in Middle Eastern supply chains under fire, they dive into: * The aggressive $10+ sell-off after Iran’s retaliatory strikes * Why the market rallied first - then collapsed * What the “Trump call” and “China put” mean for price floors * How a 20% under-delivery from ADNOC has shaken physical markets * Why traders are facing $10–12 million losses on hedged cargoes * The mechanics of operational tolerance—and how ADNOC may have broken them * Growing fear that IFAD’s credibility is at risk (some say it’s “dead”) * What this means for Murban futures and the broader pricing structure   Will and Ed also explore whether this was just a one-off allocation miss - or something more serious that could fracture trust in the Gulf’s benchmark systems.   🔗 Stay connected: Read our daily reports on Flux.live: https://flux.live/ [https://flux.live/] Follow us on Twitter - @OnyxOfficials: https://x.com/OnyxOfficials [https://x.com/OnyxOfficials] Jorge’s LinkedIn for real-time updates @ Jorge Montepeque: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/ [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/]   👉 More "The Officials Explain" videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLdOFnyMotk4U-xon44zYemCocDQ9SmYt [https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLdOFnyMotk4U-xon44zYemCocDQ9SmYt] 👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/ [https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/] 👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw [https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw] 👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux [https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux] 👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ [https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/]   Follow us: https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup [https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup] YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives [https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives] LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/ [https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/] X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge [https://x.com/Onyx__Edge] TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup [https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup] Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/ [https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/]

Trading Corner | Crude Oil Chaos, Brent Structure, and Summer Market Outlook Welcome back to Trading Corner! In this episode, Manny and James dive into one of the most volatile two-week stretches in recent crude oil markets. From surprise short-covering rallies to aggressive sell-offs, they unpack the psychology and positioning behind the recent price swings — and what they reveal about market sentiment.   Topics covered: * The dramatic market reaction around Friday the 13th * Crude oil structure analysis: flatprice, spreads, and contango * Geopolitical risk: Iran & the Strait of Hormuz threat * CTA flows and positioning trends * Brent vs. WTI dynamics and TI-Brent outlook * Refinery margins and crack spread behaviour * Distillate vs. gasoline: “Widowmaker” trades * Deferred contracts and structural shorts   With deep insights from live desk experience, this episode covers both macro and micro market forces, real-time trader psychology, and how institutions are positioning into the summer months.   Trade Ideas Discussed:   * Short Sep/Oct v Oct/Nov Brent   * Short Dec/Jun/Dec Brent   * Short WTI-Brent * Long Dec 26 EBOB   #CrudeOil #Brent #OilTrading #CommodityMarkets #RefineryMargins #TradingStrategy #EnergyMarkets #CTA #Geopolitics #StraitsOfHormuz #TradingCorner   CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.