NatWest Trade Links

Brexit: 10 years on, what next for the UK-EU relationship?

In this episode of Trade Links, host Tim Phillips is joined by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to revisit two major trade stories shaping the global economy: 10 years on from Brexit, and one year after the US “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. The discussion explores how trade relationships have evolved, where economic frictions remain, and why geopolitics is increasingly influencing global commerce.  BREXIT – TEN YEARS ON 1. UK–EU trade has stabilised, but at a lower level * UK goods trade with the EU remains around 10–15% below its pre-Brexit trajectory in volume terms, even though trade values have recovered due to inflation and higher prices. * Manufacturing sectors including automotive and chemicals continue to struggle, while food and agriculture recovered after an early shock but remain more volatile. * UK services exports have stayed resilient overall, largely thanks to growth in non-EU markets such as the US, masking weaker EU performance. 2. Non-tariff barriers remain the biggest drag on trade * Although Brexit avoided tariffs, businesses continue to face customs paperwork, rules-of-origin requirements, and border checks. * These non-tariff barriers are estimated to create costs equivalent to 7–10% tariffs on goods trade. * Smaller exporters have been disproportionately affected, with some firms deciding exporting to the EU is no longer commercially worthwhile. 3. Political and economic pressures are encouraging closer alignment * The UK and EU are increasingly pursuing pragmatic cooperation in areas such as energy, customs data sharing, food standards, and youth mobility. * Sectors including agri-food, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and electric vehicles could benefit significantly from regulatory alignment. * Broader geopolitical pressures — including Russia’s aggression and uncertainty around US policy toward Europe — are creating incentives for deeper UK–EU cooperation without full reintegration. ONE YEAR AFTER US “LIBERATION DAY” TARIFFS 1. The tariffs were dramatic politically, but economically less effective * US headline tariff rates jumped from roughly 2.5% to over 20%, levels not seen for more than a century. * In practice, exemptions, carve-outs, and negotiations reduced the effective tariff burden closer to around 10%. * Despite the scale of the announcements, the US goods trade deficit widened rather than narrowed over the following year. 2. Tariffs changed behaviour more than outcomes * Companies accelerated imports ahead of tariff implementation before reducing volumes once measures took effect. * Firms adapted supply chains through rerouting, exemptions, and alternative sourcing strategies. * Businesses increasingly shifted from “just-in-time” supply chains to “just-in-case” inventory models, embedding higher costs into global trade. 3. Trade has become a geopolitical weapon * Countries responded with bilateral negotiations, retaliatory tariffs, supply-chain diversification, and efforts to avoid provoking Washington. * China’s restrictions on rare earth exports highlighted the strategic importance of trade choke points and critical supply chains. * The panel argues that the world is entering a more fragmented era of globalisation, where resilience and geopolitical alignment increasingly matter more than pure economic efficiency. All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

The Iran war: what will peace look like?

In this episode of Trade Links, Tim Phillips is joined again by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to explore an unprecedented scenario in global trade: what happens when both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are compromised at the same time? With escalating tensions in the Middle East and warnings from the Houthi movement, the team considers the far-reaching consequences for energy, food security and global supply chains.   They also talk about Donald Trump’s delayed China trip, and how energy security and supply chain resilience will likely overshadow traditional trade topics like tariffs and soybeans. Lastly, they ask the dreaded question: What’s on the Trade Links radar? Clue: fertiliser shortages impacting Brazil and India, potential pressure on Cuba from the US, and rising tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan.   All details correct at time of recording.   For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html   This episode was recorded on 19 March 2026.   All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

India's trade deal blitz and the future of the WTO

In this episode of Trade Links, Tim Phillips is joined by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to unpack the political and economic forces shaping global trade deals and the evolving role of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Key Topics: * India’s Trade Deal Blitz: Comparing India’s agreements with the EU, UK, and US – from comprehensive free trade deals to targeted strategic partnerships. * Politics vs. Economics: How deals are increasingly shaped by geopolitics, including the impact of US tariffs and India’s Russian oil imports. * WTO at a Crossroads: Assessing the organisation’s diminished influence, its historical contribution to global trade, and what a “minimum viable” WTO could look like in a fragmented trade landscape. * The Rise of Trade Clubs: Emergence of mini-lateral agreements and managed trade arrangements replacing the old multi-lateral structure. * What’s Next: Integration opportunities for India, supply chain diversification for Western economies, and the potential shift in defence and geopolitical alignments. All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Coercion, control and the Trade Links curse

As Trade Links returns in 2026, host Tim Phillips is joined by our regular panel of experts, Aastha Gupta (European Economist, Economics and Market Strategy) and Scott Livingstone (International Advisor) to talk trade and the international backdrop.  It’s been a dramatic start to the year, so naturally the discussion focuses on US intervention in Venezuela and that most perennial of trade topics… oil. What are the impacts on the region immediately, and longer term? The discussion then turns towards sanctions, and their efficacy in a highly interconnected world – looking at Russia, Iran and South Africa as examples. Can supply chains become sanction proof? Lastly, the panel shares developments that the world may have overlooked, at the time of recording. Since then, of course, everything might have changed.   Please check out and subscribe to our channels on Apple [https://podcasts.apple.com/id/podcast/natwest-trade-links/id1819914204] and Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/22tvckJbiWWRbqcCnyFsIC]. This episode was recorded on 22 January 2026. President Trump quoted from press conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPpd8AJwGlY All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

The Year Ahead 2026: Everything, everywhere, all at once

In this Trade Links special, host Tim Phillips is joined by guests Aastha Gupta, Scott Livingstone and Ross Walker to talk about what lies ahead in 2026.  There's a lot to ponder as global trade tilts towards resilience away from cost efficiency in supply chains, and geopolitically, the world is rearming at pace. So it's good news that the economy is so rosy. Well, maybe not. With topics ranging from national technology competition and rare earths to protectionism and import price inflation, trade in 2026 really is a case of everything, everywhere, all at once. Luckily, the Trade Links panel knows where to look next. To access all the content from our Year Ahead 2026 report, visit natwest.com/yearahead  Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events shaping how the world trades. This episode was recorded on 12 November 2025. All details correct at time of recording. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html